Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday’s MLB slate…
9:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners (-150, 8)
The Mariners (32-33) took Monday night’s series opener 8-1, cruising as -110 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Marlins (37-30) start righty Edward Cabrera (5-4, 4.29 ERA) and the Mariners counter with fellow righty George Kirby (5-5, 3.50 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -140 home favorite and Miami a +125 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand, steaming the Mariners up from -140 to -150. Seattle is receiving 65% of bets but 83% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 108-53 (67%) this season, producing a 9% ROI. Seattle also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team, and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. The total is 8 with the under juiced to -120, signaling under liability and a possible fall down to 7.5. The under is receiving 30% of bets but 66% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy.
9:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres (-165, 7.5)
The Guardians (31-34) are 6-2 over their last eight games and just took two of three at home against the Astros, winning 5-0 on Sunday as -120 home favorites. Similarly, the Padres (31-34) are 5-3 over their last eight games and just took two of three at the Rockies but lost 5-4 on Sunday as -200 road favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, Cleveland hands the ball to righty Tanner Bibee (2-1, 3.05 ERA) and San Diego sends out fellow righty Joe Musgrove (3-2, 4.35 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -160 home favorite and the Guardians a +145 road dog. Sharps have quietly gotten down on San Diego, driving the Padres up from -160 to -165. Some shops are inching further toward -170. When both teams had the day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 56-31 (64%) this season, producing a 7% ROI. Musgrove has a 0.82 ERA in two June starts. San Diego also has the fresher pen, throwing 11.1 innings over the last three games compared to 14 innings pitched for Cleveland. The total is 7.5. The under is receiving 38% of bets but 82% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. These are the top two "under" teams in baseball, with San Diego 42-20 (68%) to the under and Cleveland 39-25 (61%) to the under.
