John Deere Classic 2025 Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds

John Deere Classic 2025 Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:

South African Aldrich Potgieter has been viewed as a young player to watch in the golf world since he won the British Amateur three years ago at age 17. Earlier this year, Potgieter, now at the ripe old age of 20, made the playoff in the Mexico Open at Vidanta World when we were on him and should have won his first PGA Tour event then, but it was not meant to be. 

It has been an inconsistent rookie season for him on the PGA Tour as he has made only five of 14 cuts. One of those was the runner-up in Mexico, and another one of those made cuts resulted in Potgieter’s first PGA Tour victory on Sunday at the Rocket Classic in Detroit. 

Potgieter, No. 1 on the PGA Tour for Driving Distance, got it done with the putter by draining an 18-foot birdie on the fifth playoff hole to outlast Max Greyserman, who notched his fourth runner-up finish on tour but has yet to win. Chris Kirk was eliminated with a three-putt bogey on the second playoff hole. Potgieter and Greyserman matched par-birdie on the next two extra holes before Potgieter secured his winning moment on the fifth extra hole, the short par-3 15th.

This week, the PGA Tour continues through the Midwest with its annual stop in the Quad Cities for the John Deere Classic. 

Potgieter will be part of the field again this week at a tag of 50-1. However, the tournament’s favorite is Ben Griffin (16-1), a now two-time PGA Tour winner who arguably has been the game’s hottest player outside of Scottie Scheffler. Griffin finished T-5 here last year. 

Last week’s winner, Potgieter, was the second-youngest player to graduate from the Korn Ferry Tour behind Jason Day (22-1), who did it in 2007. 

Denny McCarthy (28-1) has finished seventh or better in this event each of the last three years. 

At 33-1 are Si Woo Kim, 2022 John Deere winner J.T. Poston, whom we hit on a 50-1 ticket in that event, and Kirk, who had a chance to win last week on the first playoff hole but missed a 10-foot birdie. 

Sungjae Im, Davis Thompson, the John Deere defending champion who cashed a 25-1 ticket for us here last year, and Michael Thorbjornsen, who finished T-2 here last year and came up one short of the playoff last week, are all at 35-1. 

Lucas Glover, the 2021 John Deere winner, Jake Knapp, who also finished one shot out of the playoff last week in Detroit, Pierceson Coody, Kevin Yu, Ryan Gerard and Luke Clanton, also T-2 here last year, are all at 40-1. 

Aside from Poston, Thompson and Glover, other former winners of the John Deere Classic in this week’s field include 2019 champion Dylan Frittelli (500-1), 2018 champion Michael Kim (50-1), and 2012 champion Zach Johnson (120-1). 

The Event

The John Deere Classic is customarily held the week before the British Open but was moved a week earlier three years ago because of the Scottish Open now on the official PGA Tour schedule.

The tournament’s history dates to 1971 when it was established as the Quad Cities Open. It began as a satellite event that year and became a full-time PGA Tour event the following year. Longtime host and late-night sidekick Ed McMahon served as the event’s host from 1975 to 1979. Numerous Midwest-based companies, including Miller Brewing Company and Hardee’s, sponsored the event before current sponsor John Deere took over in 1999. The event moved all around the Quad Cities in Illinois and Iowa before settling in 2000 at TPC Deere Run, located in Silvis, Ill.

D.A. Weibring, who designed this week’s course, is a three-time winner of this tournament, as is Steve Stricker (2009, 2010, 2011). Two-time winners here include former PGA Tour commissioner Deane Beman (1971, 1972), Scott Hoch (1980, 1984), David Frost (1992, 1993) and Jordan Spieth (2013, 2015).

The Field

156 players will take part in this week’s John Deere Classic, and the weekend cut is low 65 and ties. 

The Course

TPC Deere Run opened in 2000 on land donated by the descendants of John Deere’s family. Located in Silvis, Ill., within the Quad Cities (Davenport and Bettendorf, Iowa; Rock Island and Moline, Ill.) region, TPC Deere Run was designed by five-time PGA Tour winner D.A. Weibring, who won the John Deere Classic three times.

The layout is a tree-lined parklands that plays as a par-71 of 7,289 yards.

The course presents some elevation changes, has 76 bunkers and three water danger holes. There are some tight doglegs and sloping fairways here and players will, more often than not, have to use every club in the bag, but TPC Deere Run typically plays as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour schedule.

The Bentgrass fairways are gettable (36-yard average width), but the main defense here is four inches of Kentucky Bluegrass/Fescue rough.

Players will be hitting into Bentgrass greens (5,500 square feet average) that will roll at an average of 12 feet on the stimpmeter.

Here is the official scorecard for the 2025 John Deere Classic:

Several TPC courses have correlation, mainly on agronomy, to TPC Deere Run, including TPC Craig Ranch (CJ Cup Byron Nelson), TPC River Highlands (Travelers), TPC Twin Cities (3M Open), and TPC Summerlin (Shriners). In addition, Detroit GC (last week’s Rocket Classic venue), CC Jackson (Sanderson Farms), Sedgefield (Wyndham) and Keene Trace (ISCO/Barbasol) also have various correlations to TPC Deere Run.

The TPC (Tournament Players Club) Network is a chain of public and private golf courses owned and operated by the PGA Tour. They provide a full flyover video of TPC Deere Run. 

Weather

The AccuWeather forecast indicates a fairly typical one for the John Deere Classic. Hot and humid. 

John Deere Classic Recent History 

2024: Davis Thompson (-28/256); 25-1*

2023: Sepp Straka (-21/263); 60-1

2022: J.T. Poston (-21/263); 50-1

2021: Lucas Glover (-19/265); 55-1

2020: Tournament cancelled due to COVID-19

2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21/263), 90-1

2018: Michael Kim (-27/257), 300-1

2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18/266), 50-1

2016: Ryan Moore (-22/262), 25-1

2015: Jordan Spieth (-20/264), 4-1**

2014: Brian Harman (-22/262), 125-1

2013: Jordan Spieth (-19/265), 40-1***

2012: Zach Johnson (-20/264), 12-1 ****

2011: Steve Stricker (-22/262), 7-1

2010: Steve Stricker (-26/258), 16-1

Tournament scoring record – *

Playoff win over Tom Gillis – **

Playoff win over David Hearn & Zach Johnson – ***

Playoff win over Troy Matteson – ****

John Deere Classic Trends and Angles

• 6 of the last 11 champs were first-time PGA Tour winners.
• 14 of the last 15 champs played at least one previous John Deere Classic.
• 8 of the last 15 champs finished in the Top 20 or better in a previous John Deere Classic.
• 13 of the last 15 champs had at least one Top 5 finish earlier in the season.

John Deere Trophy House?

• In each of the last three years, the winner of the John Deere Classic has stayed in the “Trophy House” — an Airbnb house just a few miles from the golf course. J.T. Poston in 2022, Sepp Straka in 2023 and Davis Thompson in 2024. 
• Per Ron Klos (@PGASplits101 on X), he asked Thompson last week in Detroit who was staying in the house this week? Thompson indicated that the house would be occupied by himself, Greyson Sigg, Chris Kirk, Ben Kohles, Patton Kizzire, J.T. Poston and Denny McCarthy. 

Statistical Analysis

With the wide fairways, it is easy to gain strokes off the tee. In fact, 18 of the top 20 finishers last year gained off the tee. So, there is more of a premium on good iron play. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Henrik Norlander 0.830
2. Jackson Suber 0.647
3. Bud Cauley 0.546
4. Ryan Gerard 0.473
5. Lucas Glover 0.462
6. Doug Ghim 0.458
7. Sami Valimaki 0.447
8. Kevin Yu 0.434
9. Lee Hodges 0.426
10. Victor Perez 0.420
11. Ben Griffin 0.415
12. John Pak 0.413
13. Joel Dahmen 0.407
14. Andrew Putnam 0.377
15. Keith Mitchell 0.321
16. Brian Campbell 0.316
17. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.307
18. Michael Kim 0.304

Last year, TPC Deere Run was rated as the second-easiest course on the PGA Tour with an average round score of 68.78 (-2.22 strokes under par). 

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Keith Mitchell 25.41%
2. Jake Knapp 24.95
3. Michael Thorbjornsen 24.81
4. Jesper Svensson 24.63
5. Kevin Yu 24.11
6. Alex Smalley 23.71
7. Hayden Springer 23.61
8. Isaiah Salinda 23.54
9. Aldrich Potgieter 23.50
10. Trey Mullinax 23.47
11. Taylor Montgomery 23.46
12. Stephan Jaeger 23.37
13. Kurt Kitayama 23.31
14. Sungjae Im 23.30
15. Davis Thompson 23.09
16. Karl Vilips 22.99

While it is easier to gain strokes off the tee at TPC Deere Run, these strokes cannot be gained simply by trying to overpower the course. Players must shape some of their drives plus avoid the fairway bunkers and thicker rough. Accuracy matters as much as distance. Good Drive Percentage is calculated by the sum of fairways hit and number of greens or fringe in regulation (when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot), divided by the number of par-4s and par-5s played.

Good Drive Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Rico Hoey 86.82%
2. Ben Kohles 86.30
3. Takumi Kanaya 86.20
4. Victor Perez 86.17
5. Paul Peterson 85.94
6. Brice Garnett 85.91
7. Ricky Castillo 85.79
8. Andrew Putnam 85.60
9. Thomas Rosenmueller 84.98
10. Michael Thorbjornsen 84.89
11. Brandt Snedeker 84.84
12. Steven Fisk 84.57
13. Alex Smalley 84.54
14. Carson Young 84.27
15. Joel Dahmen 84.03
16. Emiliano Grillo 84.00
17. Lucas Glover 83.88
18. Si Woo Kim 83.88

There are 11 par-4s at the TPC Deere Run. Strokes Gained: Par-4s give a more general sense of how players are scoring of late.

Strokes Gained: Par-4s (Last 36 rounds)

1. Ben Griffin 30.2
2. Kevin Roy 29
3. Chris Gotterup 28.9
4. Alex Smalley 24
5. Chris Kirk 23.7
6. Jake Knapp 21.5
7. Henrik Norlander 21.3
8. Andrew Putnam 20.9
9. Si Woo Kim 18.7
10. Victor Perez 18.6
11. Max McGreevy 17.5
12. Michael Kim 16.9
13. Emiliano Grillo 16.3
14. Luke Clanton 16.3
15. Ryo Hisatsune 15.8
16. J.T. Poston 15.6

A little less than half of the approach shots will be in the wedge yardages anywhere from 75 to 150 yards.

Average Proximity Gained to the Hole — Yards Per Round — 75 to 100 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Gordon Sargent 6.23 (18 rounds)
2. Jackson Suber 4.74
3. Brian Campbell 4.30
4. Doug Ghim 4.29
5. Bud Cauley 4.03
6. Zach Johnson 3.88
7. Philip Knowles 3.76
8. Jason Day 3.62
9. Chad Ramey 3.61
10. Chan Kim 3.48
11. Justin Lower 3.46
12. Zac Blair 3.30
13. Dylan Frittelli 3.27
14. Emiliano Grillo 3.21
15. Michael Kim 3.04
16. Lucas Glover 3.03

Average Proximity Gained to the Hole — Yards Per Round — 100 to 125 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Bud Cauley 6.86
2. Adam Hadwin 5.89
3. Alejandro Tosti 5.44
4. Adam Svensson 5.03
5. Davis Riley 4.86
6. Jacob Bridgeman 4.74
7. Philip Knowles 4.69
8. Denny McCarthy 4.47
9. Emiliano Grillo 3.90
10. Taylor Montgomery 3.90
11. Jackson Suber 3.82
12. Thriston Lawrence 3.70
13. Paul Peterson 3.64
14. Quade Cummins 3.63
15. Henrik Norlander 3.59
16. Chris Kirk 3.50

Average Proximity Gained to the Hole — Yards Per Round — 125 to 150 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. David Ford 12.81 (12 rounds)
2. Seamus Power 11.10
3. Nicholas Lindheim 8.88
4. Kyle Stanley 8.21
5. Lee Hodges 7.76
6. Lucas Glover 7.70
7. Chandler Phillips 6.90
8. Tom Kim 6.71
9. Emiliano Grillo 6.01
10. Joel Dahmen 5.62
11. Matt McCarty 5.42
12. Camilo Villegas 5.29
13. Kurt Kitayama 5.13
14. Jason Day 4.95
15. Nate Lashley 4.95
16. Chris Kirk 4.85

The three par-5s at TPC Deere Run measure between 550 and 600 yards.

Strokes Gained: Par-5s 550-600 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Jesper Svensson 14.1
2. Ben Griffin 13.7
3. Si Woo Kim 13.5
4. Davis Riley 12.7
5. Cameron Champ 10.4
6. Pierceson Coody 10
7. Aaron Wise 9
8. Sungjae Im 8.8
9. Adam Schenk 8.2
10. Jake Knapp 7.9
11. Bud Cauley 7.7
12. Sam Stevens 6.4
13. Vince Whaley 6.4
14. Martin Laird 5.9
15. Luke Clanton 5.9

The greens are elevated at TPC Deere Run and some missed approaches will roll off the putting surfaces to short-grass collection areas, so players will have to scramble for pars at times.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Sungjae Im 0.552
2. Andrew Putnam 0.497
3. Beau Hossler 0.484
4. Peter Malnati 0.410
5. Taylor Moore 0.381
6. Si Woo Kim 0.357
7. Jason Day 0.355
8. Patton Kizzire 0.351
9. Alex Smalley 0.329
10. Brian Campbell 0.301
11. Alejandro Tosti 0.301
12. Matt Kuchar 0.291
13. Takumi Kanaya 0.286
14. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.284
15. Davis Riley 0.275
16. Ryo Hisatsune 0.268

The greens at TPC Deere Run are fairly straightforward and the John Deere Classic typically turns into a putting contest.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass Greens — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Brian Campbell 0.75 (24 rounds)
2. Brandt Snedeker 0.72
3. Denny McCarthy 0.65
4. Vince Whaley 0.64
5. Kris Ventura 0.61
6. Dylan Wu 0.56
7. Kevin Kisner 0.54
8. Taylor Montgomery 0.53
9. Davis Riley 0.51
10. Chesson Hadley 0.47
11. Eric Cole 0.44
12. Quade Cummins 0.44 (11 rounds)
13. Matt Kuchar 0.43
14. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.43
15. Martin Laird 0.39
16. Pierceson Coody 0.39 (35 rounds)
17. Chandler Phillips 0.39 (30 rounds)
18. Jacob Bridgeman 0.38
19. Luke Clanton 0.38 (25 rounds)
20. Justin Lower 0.37
21. J.T. Poston 0.37

As mentioned above, TPC Deere Run is one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour. 

Total Strokes Gained: Easy Scoring Relative to Par (Last 36 rounds)

1. Ben Griffin 49.8
2. Michael Kim 42.1
3. Luke Clanton 39 (25 rounds)
4. Lucas Glover 38.7
5. Doug Ghim 36.8
6. Lee Hodges 34.5
7. Kevin Roy 33.4
8. Stephan Jaeger 33
9. Joe Highsmith 32.3
10. Kevin Yu 30.3
11. Andrew Putnam 30.1
12. Alex Smalley 29.4
13. Max McGreevy 27.3
14. Si Woo Kim 26.3
15. Sungjae Im 23.3

Selections

Denny McCarthy (28-1, DraftKings)

Like Greyserman last week, McCarthy has had some near-misses recently in attempting to earn his first PGA Tour victory. 

McCarthy has finished seventh (2024), sixth (2023) and sixth (2022) in the last three years at the John Deere Classic. 

He is annually rated as one of the top putters on the PGA Tour and the John Deere often turns into a putting contest. 

Michael Thorbjornsen (33-1, FanDuel)

Thorbjornsen finished runner-up here last year and was one shot out of the playoff last week for a T-4 finish in Detroit. 

The seven-time amateur winner can make a ton of birdies (27 here last year) and like last year’s champion Davis Thompson, he has been knocking at the door on multiple occasions this year with a runner-up at the Corales Puntacana, a fourth at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, and last week in Detroit. 

Kevin Yu (40-1, FanDuel)

Yu finished sixth (2023) and 20th (2024) here on two appearances at the John Deere Classic.

The man from Taiwan ranks fourth in this week’s field for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. 

He has also had a couple of near-misses this season with a third at the RBC Canadian Open and a fourth in the Myrtle Beach Classic. 

Bud Cauley (45-1, Circa Sports)

Justin Thomas, Bud Cauley’s former teammate and roommate at the University of Alabama, has been telling everyone that Bud is close to winning. 

Cauley has four top-6 finishes this season, and the former World No. 1 Amateur seems as close to a PGA Tour victory as he did when he first appeared on the PGA Tour in 2011.

He lost a lot of time with injuries from 2018 to 2024, but he has been on the comeback trail, and this is a perfect place for him to complete that comeback.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (75-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Bezuidenhout was runner-up for his John Deere Classic debut in 2022. 

The South African has played good golf of late with a T-12 at the U.S. Open and while only 45th at the Travelers after the Oakmont grind, he did rank first in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting. 

Like McCarthy, he is annually one of the best both on and around the greens. 

Thriston Lawrence (85-1, Circa Sports)

After a successful 2024, South African Lawrence earned his PGA Tour card from the DP World Tour. However, he missed 10 of his first 12 cuts. 

Nevertheless, a brief return to the DP World Tour, which included a T-4 at the Soudal Open in Belgium, has seemingly turned his 2025 campaign around as he has posted a T-12 at the U.S. Open and a T-8 last week in Detroit.

Doug Ghim (100-1, FanDuel)

Ghim currently sits 124th in the FedEx Cup points and needs a couple of good weeks to keep his card out of peril. 

He finished top 20 last week in Detroit, where he gained strokes in all areas, and TPC Deere Run has been kind in recent years to shorter hitters and more accurate ball strikers. 

Placement markets, matchups, and/or other futures will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks