Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 15 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
Top MLB Resources:
3:37 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-165, 8) at Oakland Athletics
The Red Sox (4-2) have taken the first two games of this three game series, winning 5-4 in 11 innings last night as -150 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, Boston hands the ball to righty Nick Pivetta (0-1, 1.50 ERA) while the Athletics (1-5) counter with fellow righty Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.20 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a -150 road favorite and the Athletics a +125 home dog. Sharps have jumped on Boston to complete the sweep, steaming the Red Sox up from -150 to -165. The Red Sox are receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy support from both sharps and the betting public. Road favorites are 17-5 (77%) this season. Non-division road favorites off a win, like Boston here, are 6-1 (86%) this season and 520-341 (60%) since 2021. Boston also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. The Red Sox have the better batting average (.244 vs .196) and better team ERA (1.79 vs 5.79). Boston has scored 28 runs so far this season compared to just 15 for Oakland. The Red Sox are +14 in run differential compared to -28 for Oakland, the second worst in the league behind only Colorado.
7:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at New York Mets (-125, 7)
The Tigers (4-0) took Monday’s Interleague Series opener 5-0 in extra innings, cashing as +120 road dogs. Last night’s game was postponed due to rain. In tonight’s rematch, Detroit hands the ball to righty Casey Mize, who missed all of last year with Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, the Mets (0-4) counter with fellow righty Adrian Houser (8-5, 4.12 ERA in 2023). This line opened with Detroit listed as a -125 road favorite and New York a +110 home dog. Pros have gotten down hard on the Mets to win their first game of the season, steaming New York all the way to a -125 home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on the Mets. New York is only receiving 48% of moneyline bets but 59% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. When both teams had the previous day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 4-1 (80%) this season and 444-264 (63%) since 2020. Wiseguys also seem to be leaning over, as the total is 7 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 7.5. Overs are 47-30 (61%) to start the MLB season. A $100 bettor taking every over would be up roughly $1,400.
7:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs (-200, 7)
The Cubs (3-2) have taken the first two games of this three game series, winning 12-2 last night as -185 home favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Chicago starts lefty Luke Little (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Rockies (1-5) go with righty Cal Quantrill (0-1, 9.00 ERA). This line opened with the Cubs listed as a -185 home favorite and the Rockies a +155 road dog. Pros aren’t scared off by the expensive price and they’re gotten down on Chicago to complete the sweep, steaming the Cubs up from -185 to -200. Big favorites -200 or more are 7-2 (78%) this season with a 10% ROI. Chicago has the far better offense, hitting .269 compared to .204 for Colorado. The Cubs have scored 31 runs thus far compared to just 16 for Colorado. Chicago also has the far better team ERA (3.63 vs 8.08). Pros have also leaned over here, raising the total from 6.5 to 7. Several shops are juicing the over 7 up to -115, signaling further over liability. The over is receiving roughly 75% of bets and dollars, indicating both public and sharp support. Chicago is 3-2 to the over this season. Colorado is 4-2 to the over.
