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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s World Series Game 1.
8:03 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers (-165, 8)
The Rangers are listed as a -170 favorite to win the World Series at DraftKings while the Diamondbacks are a +145 dog. Texas has an implied probability of 63% to win the World Series based on the series price.
In tonight’s World Series opener, the Diamondbacks hand the ball to righty Zac Gallen (2-2, 5.24 ERA in the postseason) while the Rangers turn to fellow righty Nathan Eovaldi (4-0, 2.42 ERA).
This line opened with the Rangers listed as a -165 home favorite and the Diamondbacks a +150 road dog. The public is leaning toward laying the juice with Texas, as 57% of bets and 66% of money are taking the Rangers at home. However, despite receiving a majority of bets, this line hasn’t moved further in the Rangers’ favor. In fact, some books have even dipped slightly from Rangers -165 to -160. This signals some liability on the Diamondbacks getting plus money.
Dogs are 25-11 (69%) this postseason, producing +19 units won with a 53% ROI. Dogs off a win are 17-5 (77%) with a 70% ROI. Over the past decade, dogs have gone 28-34 (45%) in the World Series but have generated a 2% ROI due to the plus money payouts.
The Diamondbacks have been a dog every game this postseason and have gone 9-3. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 8-0 as a dog this postseason but just 1-3 as a favorite.
Sharps have also leaned under, as the total opened at 8.5 but has fallen to 8. Some books still juicing up the under 8 to -115. Currently the under is receiving 43% of bets but 47% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Unders are 17-16 (52%) this postseason. Unders are 8-3 in the World Series since 2021. Playoff dome or closes roof stadium unders are 48-40 (55%) since 2008.
We’re also seeing heavy juice liability on both starting pitcher players props. Eovaldi’s strikeout prop is 5.5 with the under juiced to -155. Meanwhile, Gallen’s strikeout prop is 4.5 with the over juiced to -125. Eovaldi’s outs recorded prop is 15.5 with the over juiced to -125. Gallen’s outs recorded prop is 15.5 with the under juiced to -135.
World Series MVP Odds
Adolis Garcia +500
Corey Seager +550
Ketel Marte/Corbin Carroll +1000
Marcus Semien +1500
Nathan Eovaldi +1600
Josh Jung/Mitch Garver/Gabriel Moreno/Evan Carter/Christian Walker/Zac Gallen +2000
