Boston Red Sox 2025 preview
The Boston Red Sox avoided a third straight losing season by going 81-81, but that didn’t really ease the sting of disappointment. For the sixth straight season, the Red Sox failed to win the AL East and have finished second in only one of those years. That also represents their only postseason appearance since winning the World Series in 2018. So, yeah, the Red Sox avoided finishing under .500 in a third straight season for the first time since the strike-shortened 1994 season, but mediocrity isn’t the goal.
Some reaffirmations of what the goals actually are were evident this winter, as the Red Sox won the Alex Bregman sweepstakes and swung the big trade with the White Sox to acquire Garrett Crochet. They also signed Walker Buehler, who may or may not be an impact contributor, but the most important part of the offseason is that the Red Sox improved on paper without giving up Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kristian Campbell.
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The next wave of potential impact talent is arriving sooner rather than later and the hope would be that a changing of the guard and a reshuffling of the deck can produce the consistent results that the fans and the front office have come to expect. This is a good roster, and yet what you see now won’t be what you see as the season goes along. And if the Red Sox can elevate the bench by moving some penciled-in starters to reserve roles, you start talking about a much deeper, much more potent ballclub.
At least that’s how it’s all designed to go. Transition on and off the field rarely winds up being linear. So, the Red Sox did fire Chaim Bloom to promote Craig Breslow to Chief Baseball Officer. They did sign Bregman with the unsolved issue of Rafael Devers’ desire to stay at third base, much to the detriment of the team. It does seem like some veterans are threatened by the young studs coming down the pike. There are a lot of emotions, moving parts, and variables and anything could upset the balance, if there is one going into the season anyway.
But, as Breslow recently said about Devers, “these things tend to work themselves out” and that is the mindset the very talented and potentially combustible Red Sox need to have.
2025 Boston Red Sox Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 26)
World Series: +2200
AL Pennant: +1000
AL East: +425
Win Total: 86.5 (-110/-110)
Make Playoffs: Yes -115 / No -105
Boston Red Sox Preview: Offense
I will preface my breakdown of the Red Sox by talking about the park factor. Fenway Park is an excellent venue for hitters. While I wouldn’t call it Coors Field East, the ballpark dimensions are very friendly for those in the batter’s box and less friendly to those who are on the mound. So, while Boston was eighth in wOBA, they were 11th in wRC+ at 104.
The most interesting part for Boston last season is that there weren’t big home/road splits. At home, the Red Sox batted .253/.321/.422 with a .322 wOBA, which ranked 11th, but they were 19th in wRC+ because their performance gets graded on a curve. On the road, the Red Sox batted .250/.317/.424 with a .320 wOBA and a 109 wRC+. Similar numbers, but you can see how Fenway Park is supposed to bolster offense and it did not for Boston last season.
The Red Sox scored more runs on the road (19) and had a better road record (43-38). It took me a long time to dig up that it was the first time that those two things happened in the same season since 2002 when the Sox were 51-30 on the road and 42-39 at home with 67 more runs scored.
After an outlier performance like that, I can see why the Sox are hopeful that their offensive fortunes turn in 2025. There were a lot of good hitters on this team and some of the bad hitters have been replaced or will be replaced as the season goes along. Not to mention, somebody like Triston Casas was limited to just 63 games and 243 plate appearances. He had a 119 wRC+ and got off to a great start before missing all of May and most of June.
Current Oriole Tyler O’Neill was the second-best hitter with a 131 wRC+, trailing only Devers at 134. Platoon bat Rob Refsnyder was third at 130, but Jarren Duran had his breakout season with 6.7 fWAR and a 129 wRC+. The task at hand for the Red Sox is to bring up some of the other guys, like a more consistent season from Masataka Yoshida, who finished with a 115 wRC+, but was very inconsistent outside of a big July and August run.
In that respect, a player like Bregman, a consistent producer across his time with the Astros, will really help. We’ll see how he takes to second base, at least in the interim, but he’s a guy that puts the bat on the ball a ton while still drawing walks and driving the baseball. Boston negated some of the positive offensive elements of Fenway Park by striking out 26% of the time at home. Only the Mariners struck out more at home and only the Mariners and Rockies struck out more for the season.
That’s where Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony factor in. While all three guys have had some minor league stints with strikeouts, all of them have been able to draw walks to offset the punchies. Boston was only 16th in BB% last season. Usually you see teams with more strikeouts walk more and it’s part of their offensive philosophy. For the Red Sox, they just had a lot of dudes with holes in their swings.
FanGraphs has the 20-year-old Anthony as their second-ranked prospect. The 22-year-old Campbell is seventh and the 22-year-old Mayer is 57th. Mayer is a SS and Anthony is an OF, with Campbell still trying to figure out a position.
Boston Red Sox Preview: Pitching
Pitching coach Andrew Bailey took over in November 2023 and I was very impressed with the early returns for the Boston staff and the things that he was saying. He talked a lot about minimizing a guy’s worst pitch and how to focus on better sequencing. But, in the end, the Red Sox were pretty average with a 4.05 ERA and a 4.10 FIP.
In the first half, Boston was fifth in ERA at 3.64 and third in FIP at 3.70. In the second half, it all fell apart with a 4.65 ERA and a 4.70 FIP, making the Red Sox effectively a bottom-five pitching staff. The thing is that injuries were part of the equation, but nowhere near the sole explanation. Boston had four starters make at least 26 starts, led by Kutter Crawford with 33. He had a 4.36 ERA and a 4.65 FIP, as it was a tale of two seasons. He had a 3.00 ERA over 114 innings in the first half with a .276 wOBA against and a 112/31 K/BB ratio. He had a 6.59 ERA over 69.2 innings in the second half with a .348 wOBA against and a 63/20 K/BB ratio.
Crawford allowed 20 homers in the second half. He was said to be battling a knee injury all season and now it has impacted 2025, as he isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the year.
Tanner Houck actually had something of a similar fate after the All-Star Break, though not as extreme. He had a 2.54 ERA over 117 innings in the first half with a .251 wOBA against and 112 strikeouts. In the second half, he had a 4.23 ERA in 61.2 innings with a .321 wOBA against and just 42 strikeouts, as his velocity dipped.
Brayan Bello was actually the opposite, as he got better as the season went along, but his first half was so poor that he finished with a 4.49 ERA and a 4.19 FIP over 30 starts. Boston has to replace Nick Pivetta’s 26 starts, but Crochet is a good place to start. In one of the few good moves that the White Sox have made over the last decade, they moved the southpaw reliever into the rotation, even though he missed all of 2022 and only made 13 appearances in 2023. The shrewd move paid off, as he had a 3.58 ERA with a 2.69 FIP in 146 innings over 32 starts. We’ll see how the Red Sox handle him and we’ll see if the division change and park factor downgrade are negatives, not to mention the massive innings increase.
With Buehler’s ongoing health concerns and Lucas Giolito back off of a missed season, this rotation has a lot of red flags. Crochet’s red flag waving in the wind as opposed to just being attached to the flagpole would really hurt this team in a big way.
Boston also had a terrible bullpen last season, finishing dead last in ERA by 0.6 runs at 5.45. They were also last in FIP by a wide margin at 4.93. This group looks to be an adventure again this season, as Liam Hendriks returns from Tommy John surgery to replace Kenley Jansen. Aroldis Chapman was another big free agent add for the Red Sox and he’ll be a very important piece, especially with Chris Martin also gone. Garrett Whitlock could be a big help if he can stay healthy. Overall, I’m not a big fan.
One thing worth noting is that the Red Sox were 30th in LOB% at 64.8%. They weren’t a great defensive team and gave up a ton of home runs, but also got a bit unlucky in terms of stranding runners.
Boston Red Sox Player to Watch
OF Wilyer Abreu
I’ve hit on a lot of Red Sox position players, but Abreu was one I saved until now because I am extremely intrigued by the profile. Abreu was +17 Defensive Runs Saved in RF and +7 Outs Above Average. He was shockingly good on defense and wound up with a 3.1 fWAR season. I think he has some serious room to grow as well.
Abreu’s .253/.322/.459 slash wasn’t the .316/.388/.474 that he had in 85 PA in 2023, but he was an above average bat despite a drop in K% and a pretty big change in batted ball distribution that led to a lot more pop ups. He had a 79.7% Z-Contact%, which is terrible, but he didn’t chase a lot. With 85th percentile bat speed, I think there’s a really good hitter in here and I hope that the Red Sox give him a long leash, even with Anthony and Campbell coming.
Boston Red Sox Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
This is such a hard team to gauge because you really can see the path to contending atop the AL East. This offense could be quite good and may add reinforcements during the season to replace some guys and push others to the bench. But, the pitching, as is often the case with Boston, looks dicey at best. It is entirely possible that Crochet continues his dominance and stays healthy and this is still an average group.
I appreciate what Houck did last season, but his xERA was a run higher than his ERA and he got very fortunate with sequencing, as he only had a 17.6% K% with RISP, but those hitters only posted a .275 BABIP. The floor for the pitching staff is elevated with Chapman and Crochet, but the ceiling seems quite capped to me with some low-strikeout starters and recent injuries. As a result, I don’t know that this team will reach the pinnacle of what it is capable of and that means leaning more towards the Under than the Over. I do respect the offensive upside enough to give some benefit along with my doubt.
Slight Lean: Under 86.5
