Chicago Cubs 2025 preview
The Chicago Cubs continue to find themselves caught in-between. After finishing 83-79 for the second straight season, the Cubs were one of the more active MLB teams over the winter. The pitching staff was the primary focus, but adding more depth was also part of the plan. The signature addition of the offseason was Kyle Tucker as a big bat on a one-year deal, unless the Cubs can sign him to an extension before he hits the open market.
But, the reason I say that the Cubs are caught in-between is because they’re close to having another crop of prospects graduate to the Major Leagues together, much like what they had in the mid-2010s that led to the only World Series title in the last 116 seasons. Pete Crow-Armstrong was the first one to arrive, followed by Kevin Alcantara with three games played last season, but Matt Shaw looks like the next one. Owen Caissie and James Triantos aren’t far behind and a long-term answer at catcher is also coming soon in Moises Ballesteros.
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However, the most recent crop of youngsters, including Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ, come up a lot in trade conversations. Mixing in free agents like Dansby Swanson and Seiya Suzuki, along with trade pieces like Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, have left the Cubs with a good team, but a not good enough team.
It feels like there will be a season when it all comes together and the Cubs live up to the prospect pedigree and what I imagine are some pretty high internal expectations. This year’s team features a rebuilt bullpen, more capable starters, and potentially a difference maker with manager Craig Counsell in Year 2.
Of course, it also strikes me as a familiar feeling to what I’ve had before and the Cubs haven’t won a playoff game since 2017 or made the playoffs in a 162-game season since then.
2025 Chicago Cubs Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 20)
World Series: +3000
NL Pennant: +1500
NL Central: +125
Win Total: 85.5 (-115/-105)
Make Playoffs: Yes -140 / No +115
Chicago Cubs Preview: Offense
Expectations have increased for the Cubs. To go over this win total, they’d need to win three more games and more games than they’ve won in a season since 2017. While the Tucker deal is obviously a really nice pickup for them with a guy that has 30+ HR power and racked up 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games last season, he’s an impending free agent. There’s no guarantee that he’ll spend the whole season with Chicago, as he’ll easily be the most attractive rental hitter on the market.
I can’t envision many scenarios where the Cubs are sellers, especially in this division, but you never know for sure. For now, Tucker provides a huge boost to an offense that needs it. The Cubs were 13th in wOBA at .311, but finished 21st in home runs and 12th in runs scored. Chicago was sixth in BB% and Tucker will help bolster that number as well. There should be more run-scoring opportunities with him, plus he’ll give Suzuki some competition for the team lead in wRC+.
Only two regulars, Suzuki and Happ, had a wRC+ over 119, meaning they were 20% better than league-average offensively. Busch had a 119 wRC+. Unfortunately, the next returnee is Hoerner at 103. The Cubs had a lot of underperformers last season, some that are no longer on the roster and some that still are. Swanson was one of them with a 99 wRC+, but his elite defensive play led to 4.3 fWAR.
The truth about acquiring such a commanding offensive presence like Tucker is that he elevates the rest of the lineup with what he can do. The Cubs project to have four guys with a double-digit BB% at the top of the order, so this season hinges on how guys like Hoerner, Swanson, and PCA do with men on base.
Matt Shaw, Chicago’s top prospect per FanGraphs, has slashed .303/.384/.522 in the minors. He could end up being a massive piece of the above puzzle as a guy in the bottom half of the lineup who gets a lot of RBI chances. The Cubs were only 17th in wRC+ with runners in scoring position last season, but sixth in plate appearances.
This won’t be an elite lineup, but a few improvements and the presence of Tucker could very well push it towards the top 10.
Chicago Cubs Preview: Pitching
A top-10 lineup paired with what was a top-10 team by ERA will win a lot of games. The Cubs were 10th in ERA at 3.79, but 15th in FIP at 4.04. The fielders finished seventh in Outs Above Average at +22 and ninth in Defensive Runs Saved with +37. Those guys helped the pitching staff out a ton, as the Cubs were only 18th in K% as a group.
Cubs starters were actually 25th in K%, but they limited walks effectively and wound up sixth in ERA. They also had the second-largest gap between ERA and FIP on the negative side, trailing only the Brewers. Oddly enough, the Reds were third on that list, so we could theoretically see more runs out of the division this season if that negative regression hits.
Addition by subtraction might be the story here. Justin Steele was excellent, but limited to 24 starts. Shota Imanaga had a phenomenal first season in the U.S. Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad are two of the regression candidates on the staff, Assad especially, with a 3.73 ERA, 4.97 xERA, and a 4.64 FIP, but both guys had strong ERA numbers.
The laggard of the group was Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs had five starters make at least 24 starts, so they were blessed by good fortune on the health front. Hendricks was objectively terrible, though, posting a 6.27 ERA with a 5.09 FIP. Chicago brought in Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea to replace Hendricks and we could even see a six-man rotation for the Cubs. Rea is not a guy I’m terribly fond of, but Boyd could be a really nice acquisition after eight good starts in the regular season with a 2.72 ERA for the Guardians.
I think we look for the big names acquired during the offseason for teams, but don’t think enough about the guys that they are replacing. It would take a lot for Boyd/Rea to be as bad as Hendricks was and those are likely to be 116 improved innings. They could also soften the blow if Assad’s three-year ball of regression comes to a head. More on him shortly.
Speaking of improved innings, the bullpen now features Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, and Caleb Thielbar. Those are three accomplished and polished relievers. The Cubs had the 12th-ranked pen by ERA and 17th by FIP. I think they could improve upon those numbers, even without fWAR leader Mark Leiter Jr. and appearance leader Drew Smyly.
Chicago Cubs Player to Watch
SP Javier Assad
Assad is a guy that I have a love/hate relationship with. I hate him because I’ve lost money betting against him and he’s defying a lot of statistical probabilities with what he’s done in three MLB seasons. He has a 3.40 ERA with a 4.49 FIP and a 4.55 xFIP. His three seasons by xERA are 4.49, 4.64, 4.97. Last season, he ranked in the 10th percentile in xERA, 19th in xBA, 4th in Chase%, 3rd in Whiff%, 21st in K%, 26th in Barrel%, and 39th in Hard Hit%. There are very few redeeming qualities in his statistical profile.
And yet, he’s had LOB% marks of 83%, 83.3%, and 80.3% in his three seasons. His average fastball velocity dropped by 1.5 mph from 2023 to 2024. Michael Baumann at FanGraphs wrote a piece on August 2 titled “Javier Assad Has to Return to Earth Eventually, Right?” Baumann’s conclusion was that the depth of his arsenal with seven tracked pitches and the varying speeds could be part of it. I love him because he’s an incredible case study.
I don’t know what it is, but if it continues, the Cubs won’t mind. And it’ll give them another very competent starter in a deep rotation.
Chicago Cubs Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
This certainly appears to be the best Cubs team we’ve seen in a little while. I’ve fallen for believing in a lot of the in-house guys before, but the additions are upgrades and the health of the organization is a lot stronger than it has been in recent seasons in terms of near-MLB-ready prospects. I also believe Counsell is a big upgrade over David Ross.
The Cubs underperformed by five games relative to their Pythagorean Win-Loss record and three games by BaseRuns. They should have gone Over this number last season and I think this year’s team is absolutely better. While I think there is better value on the Brewers to win the NL Central, I do think the Cubs go Over this. I could see the NL Central shaking out like the AL Central did last season where some teams take nice leaps forward.
Strong Lean: Over 85.5
