Chicago White Sox 2024 preview
The Chicago White Sox began play in 1901 as one of the charter members of the American League. Up until 2018, they had as many World Series titles (3) as they had 100-loss seasons. In 2018, the White Sox went 62-100. In 2023, the White Sox went 61-101.
It took 116 seasons to have more 100-loss seasons than World Series titles and they may very well be in line for their third 100-loss season in seven seasons.
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Things do not look good on the South Side this season or really at any point in the near future. On the plus side, a new era of White Sox baseball has been ushered in, as President Ken Williams and Senior VP and GM Rick Hahn were both fired late August. Former Farm Director Chris Getz is now the GM and he’ll work alongside Josh Barfield, who was the Director of Player Development for the Diamondbacks. The White Sox also brought in a very highly-lauded pitching mind in Brian Bannister as a Senior Advisor.
This is a pretty big rebuild and it will take time. The White Sox have had leadership problems at every level for a long time and the culture seemed to be about as fractured as the roster. Payroll is slowly on the way down and this season is all about figuring out who to build around as the White Sox usher in a new chapter.
2024 Chicago White Sox Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Mar. 4)
World Series: +25000
AL Pennant: +12000
AL Central: +4000
Win Total: 63.5 (-105/-115)
Make Playoffs: Yes +2200 / No -10000
Chicago White Sox Preview: Offense
If you have $10,000 lying around and would like to win $100 with it, you can bet on the White Sox to miss the playoffs at DraftKings. Based on the win total, they’re a little better than even money to avoid 100 losses. Some of that may depend on whether or not they keep Luis Robert Jr. through the 2024 season. He isn’t the only potential trade candidate, but he is the one that would bring the biggest return.
It is amazing to think that Robert, Yoan Moncada, and Eloy Jimenez are still in the middle of this lineup, but the team is coming off of 101 losses. Things were really looking up with that trio, plus Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, and Tim Anderson. Eaton is no longer playing baseball. Abreu is with the Astros. Anderson had to wait a long time to find work this offseason. Second baseman of the future Nick Madrigal is a below average big leaguer and a bench player for the Cubs.
Anyway, back to Robert, who was a bright spot for a lineup that ranked in the bottom five or bottom 10 in virtually every offensive category last season. He hit 38 homers and stole 20 bases while posting a team-leading 128 wRC+. Jake Burger, now a Miami Marlin, was second with a 113 wRC+ before getting traded at last year’s Trade Deadline. Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn were the only other hitters with a wRC+ above 98.
Most importantly for Robert, he stayed healthy. He played over 100 games for the first time in four MLB seasons and also played a stellar center field with 13 Outs Above Average, which is Statcast’s main fielding statistic. He was a feast or famine guy with a Barrel% over 15% and a K% approaching 30%, but he was finally able to tap into all of his potential in his age-25 season. He’s signed through 2027, so the White Sox can either build around him or get a bevy of prospects for his services.
Jimenez was a productive hitter, albeit not as productive as he was in 2022, but he was also relegated to the designated hitter role to try and keep him healthy. Back in 2019, he was a top-10 prospect in baseball. Now he heads into his age-27 season trying to prove he can be a viable everyday player by staying healthy enough to be on the field. His contact quality remains really promising, even if his Hard Hit% dropped 8.3% from 2022 to 2023 and his Barrel% dropped over 5%.
I can’t help but feel like better coaches and better voices across the board have to help guys like Robert and Jimenez remain more consistent. I also can’t help but feel like the ship has sailed on Moncada, who turned in another below average season and struck out 30% of the time.
It’s possible we haven’t seen the peak of Vaughn, who also boasts great contact authority numbers, but he has a lot of empty stats and only hit 21 homers because he doesn’t elevate the baseball enough.
Generally speaking, the approach for the White Sox has been ill-advised. They were second in MLB last season in ground ball percentage (GB%). They were fifth in 2022. They were third in 2021, but managed to lead the league in BABIP at .310, so that covered up a lot of other issues.
I was hopeful last season that Jose Castro would ignite some changes as the hitting coach. He was with the Braves for eight seasons as an assistant and they really embrace to “hit ‘em high and let it fly” philosophy, as Atlanta really adopted a lot of the launch angle changes that were gaining steam across the league.
Well, that didn’t happen, but the White Sox have hired Marcus Thames now, who had a 51.1% FB% in his career and hit 115 homers out of his 450 MLB hits. He also hit 147 minor league homers. Thames and Getz have both talked about not chasing as much and that is as good of a place to start as any.
Chicago White Sox Preview: Pitching
Author edit: Dylan Cease was traded to the Padres on Mar. 13 for four prospects, including RHP Drew Thorpe and RHP Jairo Iriarte, who will both make their MLB debuts this season barring injury.
Thames and Getz better hope for a lot more out of the offense because the pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. After unsuccessfully trying to trade Dylan Cease all winter, the White Sox will go with him as their ace, as he draws nearer to free agency. Cease is in his last year of arbitration next season and will be a free agent after the 2025 campaign.
There was surely a disconnect between how the White Sox viewed Cease and how potential suitors viewed him, as he posted a 4.58 ERA last season over 177 innings. But, the advanced metrics were a lot stronger with a 4.07 xERA and a 3.72 FIP. He was hurt by a lot of circumstance. He allowed a .330 BABIP, which was 70 points higher than the previous season, and had a 69.4% LOB%. The White Sox were very poor defensively and that had an impact on everybody, especially Cease.
It wasn’t all bad luck, though. His Hard Hit% jumped more than 10% year-over-year and his average exit velo jumped 3.2 mph. Because the advanced metrics were more favorable, Cease still managed 3.7 fWAR. His teammates collectively managed 6.3 fWAR.
However, Mike Clevinger and Lucas Giolito are both gone after accumulating 3.8 of that 6.3 fWAR. Lockdown reliever Gregory Santos is now a Seattle Mariner after picking up 1.6 fWAR in 60 appearances with a 3.39 ERA and a 2.65 FIP. Aaron Bummer was fifth in fWAR in 61 appearances with a 6.79 ERA but a 3.58 FIP. He’s an Atlanta Brave.
So, the White Sox have one guy who ranked in the top seven of pitcher fWAR last season. It is the leader in Cease, but this is a revamped and retooled pitching staff. Most of the guys that left are pretty replaceable on the whole, but this rotation looks like one of the worst in baseball.
We’ll see if Cease bounces back. We’ll see if Michael Kopech can stay healthy and also bounce back from having a 5.43 ERA with a 6.46 FIP. He wore down last season and had to be moved to the bullpen to monitor his workload. Otherwise, the White Sox added three newcomers in Erick Fedde, Michael Soroka, and Chris Flexen.
Fedde was the Choi Dong-won Award winner in the KBO, which is their Cy Young Award, and he was also the MVP. Soroka has pitched 46 innings at the MLB level since 2019. Flexen had a 6.86 ERA with a 6.22 FIP in 102.1 innings for the Mariners and Rockies. In three seasons since returning to the Majors, he has allowed a .284/.346/.464 slash and a .348 wOBA in road appearances, which is relevant since he spent the majority of that time in Seattle.
The bullpen is a fact-finding mission, as the White Sox are hoping to develop tradeworthy relievers that they can get something for at the Trade Deadline. With any luck, Jordan Leasure and Deivi Garcia become guys to build around in high leverage. Also, with any luck, flamethrower Garrett Crochet is healthy and the same kind of weapon he was in 2021 when he had a 2.82 ERA and a 2.80 FIP in 54 appearances.
Chicago White Sox Player to Watch
IF Colson Montgomery
The light at the end of a rather depressing tunnel could be the 22-year-old top prospect in the White Sox organization. Montgomery finished his season at Double-A last year and posted a .400 OBP over 167 plate appearances. The 2021 first-rounder out of Southridge High School in Indiana was the No. 14 overall prospect for FanGraphs entering the season and he checks a lot of boxes that current White Sox don’t check.
He had one of the lowest chase rates in the minors and one of the lowest swing-and-miss rates. His future power projection grades as a 60 on the 20-80 scale and he’s drawn 123 walks in 823 minor league PA for a 14.9% BB%. He’s likely to have to move to third base because of his size and current fielding prowess, but he has a great chance to debut later this year.
Chicago White Sox Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
For the most part, I don’t play win totals at the extremes. I won’t play really high or really low win totals. That philosophy does not change here, as the White Sox could easily lose 100 games again or narrowly miss the mark. I do think that this is a full-on rebuild, while also trying to see what the better roster players can fetch on the trade market.
With that in mind, if you are looking at a full-season wager on the White Sox, you have to assume that Cease is traded in July and that the possibility is there for Robert to be moved. If nothing else, the impending free agent guys like Dominic Leone and Jesse Chavez are likely to be moved, along with a guy like Stassi or even Moncada (if he has a taker).
Lean: Under 63.5
Get all of our preseason coverage in the 2024 MLB Betting Guide.
