Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction
There are three $300 million payrolls left standing in the MLB Playoffs. And the Cleveland Guardians. The notoriously, ahem, thrifty AL Central champs outlasted the Tigers in five games and beat Tarik Skubal to do it, earning a trip to the Bronx to take on the Yankees with a little over 48 hours worth of time to take it all in and get ready to flip the switch again.
The Yankees are in search of their first World Series appearance since 2009. The Guardians were the Indians back in 2016 when they made it and lost in a heartbreaking seventh game to the Cubs in a battle of teams with long-standing championship droughts. Cleveland hasn’t won the World Series since 1948. Fifteen years must feel like an eternity to Yankees fans. This should be an interesting one and one team will get a step closer to ending that streak.
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The Yankees finished two games better than the Guardians during the regular season, so they’ll have home-field advantage for the 2-3-2 format. New York won the season series 4-2 and outscored Cleveland 37-22. The Yankees also knocked Cleveland out in the ALDS the last time both teams were in the playoffs back in 2022 with a Game 5 win behind Nestor Cortes.
Cleveland won’t have to worry about him, but there is still plenty for the Guardians to worry about. But, don’t expect the Yankees to waltz right into the World Series either.
Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Schedule
Game 1: Monday October 14, 7:38 p.m. ET (Cobb vs. Rodon)
Game 2: Tuesday October 15, 7:38 p.m. ET (Bibee vs. Cole)
Game 3: Thursday October 17, TBD (Schmidt vs. Boyd)
Game 4: Friday October 18, TBD (Gil vs. Williams) (if necessary)
Game 5: Saturday October 19, TBD (Rodon vs. Cobb) (if necessary)
Game 6: Monday October 21, TBD (Bibee vs. Cole) (if necessary)
Game 7: Tuesday October 22, TBD (Boyd vs. Schmidt) (if necessary)
(all pitching matchups are projected by me until otherwise announced)
How To Watch Guardians vs. Yankees
All games on TBS
Guardians vs. Yankees Series Odds
Cleveland Guardians +160 // New York Yankees -190
Over/Under 5.5 Games: -180 // +140
Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Preview
Will the fifth game that Cleveland was forced to play in the ALDS be their undoing in the ALCS? Matthew Boyd had some great swing-and-miss stuff, but did work out of a couple of jams in his two innings. Whether it was the plan or a response to Boyd having a couple of close calls, Stephen Vogt went to his bullpen in Game 5 in the third inning to deploy Cade Smith.
All season long, the Guardians have closely monitored their reliever workloads by pitch count. Because of their dominance, many of their appearances were under 20 pitches and often no more than an inning and a third or so. Guardians relievers collectively had nine 20+ pitch appearances against the Tigers. Smith and Tim Herrin worked in all five games. Emmanuel Clase and Hunter Gaddis pitched in four of them.
It got to the point where Cleveland needed to use Erik Sabrowski, Andrew Walters, and Eli Morgan in high leverage in Game 5. With Boyd’s two-inning start, the Guardians had 18.1 innings from starters over five games. The Yankees got 20.1 innings from theirs over four games. They weren’t terribly sharp, as Yankee starters gave up 11 runs on 24 hits, but the workload on Cleveland’s bullpen is easily and undoubtedly the biggest betting angle to this series. For what it’s worth, Cleveland’s starters gave up four runs on 16 hits.
Vogt will be torn between trying to ask more of his starters, beginning with ground ball wizard Alex Cobb in Game 1, and running the risk of gassing his bullpen further. Guys like Smith, Gaddis, and Clase, who went a full two innings for the Game 5 save, need a blow and the offense is unlikely to win in a rout that allows that to take place. Clase’s only other two-inning appearance this season came against the Yankees back on August 20 in a game Cleveland won 9-5 in extras.
There is a big offensive gap between these two teams in a lot of ways, but Cleveland, much like Kansas City, has the pitching to close it. The Yankees finished third with a .331 wOBA and second with a 117 wRC+. The Guardians had a .306 wOBA and a league average 100 wRC+. Both teams limit batting strikeouts well, with Cleveland fifth at 20.2% and New York ninth at 21.2%. The Yankees walked at a far higher rate at 10.8% than Cleveland’s 7.9%.
But, let’s be honest, the size of the gap is because the Yankees have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and no other team has that. Jose Ramirez led the Guardians with a 141 wRC+, meaning he was 41% better than league average. Judge had a 218 wRC+, so he was 118% better than league average. Soto had a 180. The supporting cast for New York is pretty mediocre and the Guardians kind of cancel that out in a lot of ways, especially with how Lane Thomas has turned it on in the postseason and the resurgent Kyle Manzardo, who had a 98 wRC+ for the season, but a 147 wRC+ over his final 69 PA after his September 1 recall.
We’ll see more of Manzardo in this series with Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil. The Tigers just had Skubal, Tyler Holton, and other lefties in the pen. He might be an intriguing player with the short porch and a high pulled fly ball rate after his recall.
By no means am I diminishing the value of Judge and Soto. They are two of the best hitters in baseball and holding them down is difficult, even with Judge’s career postseason issues with a .207 average and 71 K in 184 AB. A lot of those were thanks to Cleveland pitching in 2022 when he struck out 11 times in 20 at bats.
The Guardians, much like the Royals, excelled at preventing walks and home runs as a pitching staff. Cleveland was 18th with an 8.3% BB%, but Triston McKenzie is in the minors, Tyler Beede and Scott Barlow were DFA’d, and Nick Sandlin was not on the ALDS roster and shouldn’t be on this one either. Basically, all of the Guardians pitchers that limit walks will be on the playoff roster.
Guardians pitchers were 12th in HR allowed, but, again, guys like Ben Lively (I don’t think), Logan Allen, and Carlos Carrasco aren’t going to be on the ALCS roster. I guess Lively might be if they prefer him over Gavin Williams as the fourth starter, but I don’t think that they will. Lively had a 3.81 ERA with a 4.66 FIP, so the negative regression signs in the profile and a high home run rate are worrisome, though I guess you could try to sneak a start in Cleveland with cooler weather past New York.
Anyway, the Yankees have gotten tremendous work from Cole ever since he got settled in and he should be the ace and the anchor for the rotation here. Carlos Rodon was great down the stretch, but he gave up four runs on seven hits in his ALDS start and I think Cleveland matches up pretty well against him. Schmidt is a heavy sinker guy who allowed two runs on four hits in his ALDS start, but the Guardians and all of their platoon advantages make that matchup interesting.
Cole was excellent in the second half with a 2.76 ERA and a .257 wOBA against over 71.2 innings. He struggled in Game 1 against the Royals, but shined in Game 2 and will likely shine again in this series. Schmidt returned on September 7 from injury and had five starts with a 3.65 ERA and a 3.69 FIP.
When Gil gets a start, he won’t have pitched since September 28, so who knows how sharp he may be, as he did not appear in the ALDS. Gil struggled in the middle part of the year and had a couple rough outings late, but finished with a 3.50 ERA and a 4.14 FIP. Those still aren’t bad numbers for a fourth starter type, especially with how this series looks for Cleveland’s pitching staff.
All in all, I do think the Yankees win the series. I don’t know how Cleveland’s bullpen can navigate a long series if need be. The off day structure really saved them in the ALDS. With the 2-3-2 format, the only off days are the travel days and the Guardians only had one off day between series. Unless Vogt gets some extremely good starting pitching and is willing to give those guys more leash, I think a lot of guys pitching a lot of high-leverage, high-stress innings for the first time are likely to falter.
I don’t really want to lay the huge series price. I’d be more interested if Cole was able to throw Game 1, but the price would reflect that if he was.
