Detroit Tigers 2024 preview
The rebuild is not complete in the Motor City just yet, but the 2024 Detroit Tigers are close. It has been a painstaking and miserable rebuild for this fan base and this city. The Tigers haven’t had a winning season since 2016, as they’ve been erasing the extreme spending of Dave Dombrowski and Mike Ilitch at a time when it did seem like winning a World Series was possible.
This storied franchise has five playoff appearances since 1987 and four of them came in consecutive years from 2011-14. The Tigers had two World Series appearances under Jim Leyland, but were never really a threat to win the Fall Classic once they got there.
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The 78 wins amassed by the Tigers last season were the most since that last winning season in 2016 and the second-place finish was the first one higher than third in that span as well.
Things are definitely looking up. Javier Baez is the last remaining bad contact now that Miguel Cabrera has retired. The team is only on the hook for about $40 million dollars guaranteed next season, so payroll flexibility has returned at a time when some homegrown talent is emerging. I don’t know if this is a playoff team on the surface, but this is a team that should finally be in the mix for the first time in a long time and the Tigers should give Motown sports fans something to look forward to while waiting on the Lions to start again.
2024 Detroit Tigers Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Mar. 6)
World Series: +6000
AL Pennant: +2500
AL Central: +350
Win Total: 80.5 (-110/-110)
Make Playoffs: Yes +190 / No -225
Detroit Tigers Preview: Offense
It is a little jarring to see four players under the age of 25 expected to be in the Opening Day lineup. The process of moving out bloated veteran contracts and the inexpensive placeholders hanging around to save money was not an easy one, but the future is now for the Tigers. Colt Keith looks ticketed to make his MLB debut on March 28 and do so in a lineup that also features Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, and Spencer Torkelson.
For an offense that ranked in the bottom five in a lot of key categories last season, growing pains are to be expected this season as well, but it is a lot less painful watching a prominent Tigers draft pick going through some struggles than some JAG that wouldn’t be on a better roster. It isn’t just that these guys have arrived, it’s that the promise and potential were evident last season.
Let’s start with Torkelson, who hit 31 homers and posted a 107 wRC+. The Arizona State product was drafted 1.1 in 2020 as the best hitter in the college ranks. The Tigers had him in Triple-A by 2021 and he debuted in 2022, but MLB pitching got the better of him. Last season, he still struggled in several areas, but had a 14.1% Barrel% and a 50.5% Hard Hit%. He also hit 19 homers in the second half, so he was adjusting on the fly.
I don’t know that Torkelson’s eye-popping batting average and on-base percentage from college and the low minors will translate because he does strike out a lot and hits in a lot of deep counts, but the contact authority is a great sign for the future. The same is true of Greene, who had an 11.3% Barrel% and a 46.6% Hard Hit% last season while dealing with some injuries. He only hit 11 homers because of his awful launch angle, but he hit the ball hard, well above the league average HH% of 39.2% or the Barrel% of 8.1%.
Meadows, who profiles as a really good defensive center fielder, a skill not to be overlooked playing at Comerica Park, hit 22 homers and stole 27 bases across two levels. He walks a ton and will strike out as a result, but he’s going to get a crack at the top of this order and adds a much-needed splash of athleticism to the roster. My biggest issue with the Tigers, aside from the dead-end contracts, is that they have not been an athletic team at all. Meadows and Greene are athletes and they can go and get it in the OF, which helps the pitching staff tremendously.
Keith is not much of an athlete, but he hit 27 homers in 126 minor league games last season. He’ll have to find a position at the MLB level and may just be a big-bodied DH when all is said and done, but there’s some power and some additional contact authority in this profile. The Tigers believe so much in the bat that they signed him to a six-year, $28.6 million dollar deal with options that could exceed $80 million.
How long has it been since the Tigers have had young, exciting players to talk about like this? Even Kerry Carpenter quietly slugged 20 bombs in 459 PA last season and owns a 122 wRC+ in about a season’s worth of plate appearances. Mark Canha is a consummate professional and a nice add for a young team. So is Gio Urshela, whose glovework will help, and whose bat can contribute here and there.
Yes, Javier Baez is a windmill and a black hole of offense, but he’s still a slick fielder and some silver lining has to come from that contract.
Detroit Tigers Preview: Pitching
One of the biggest Spring Training developments over the first couple weeks of games was that Tarik Skubal was just gassing dudes. Skubal struck out 102 batters over 80.1 innings last season and allowed a .166 wOBA with 43 K against just four walks in 30 September innings to end the year. A healthy Skubal is a legitimate ace. But, we haven’t seen it much, as he’s exceeded 118 innings just once as a big leaguer.
To protect some arms and also add some veteran presence, the Tigers went out and got Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda. I’m not sure that there’s a ton of upside to either guy, but Flaherty is a one-year commitment and Maeda is signed for two. Flaherty simply walked too many guys last season, but had over a strikeout per inning and the Orioles found some success with his velocity and swing-and-miss rates late in the year.
Maeda had a 3.79 ERA in 71.1 innings after the All-Star Break, holding opposing batters to a .307 wOBA. He was coming off of major surgery and had a setback early in the season, but once he got healthy, he was pretty good. Both guys are going into favorable situations pitching at Comerica Park and in the AL Central. Maeda is familiar with the division after spending the last four seasons with the Twins.
All three of those guys are household names, but my intrigue piques with Matt Manning and Reese Olson. Manning, like Skubal, Casey Mize, and others in the Tigers organization, has been stricken by the injury bug. He still hasn’t thrown more than 85.1 innings at the MLB level. From arm and back injuries to a comebacker off the foot, it’s been one thing or another, but he has a 4.37 ERA with a 4.45 FIP in 45 starts. I’d love to see more strikeouts and he allowed a lot of hard contact last season, but I still think there’s something there.
It is easier to see with Olson, who threw over 140 innings across two levels and had a 3.99 ERA with a 4.01 FIP at the MLB level. The raw stuff is special. His slider spin rate averaged nearly 3,000 rpm, but he had trouble commanding it. The fastball runs up there in the mid-90s and his changeup is excellent.
The depth is suddenly interesting here as well. Mize is throwing the ball extremely well in the Grapefruit League and Sawyer Gipson-Long made four good starts with the Tigers to end last season.
Jackson Jobe is also coming. After a batting practice session, Kerry Carpenter said that Jobe reminded him of Spencer Strider, whom he had just faced in a ST game. That’s, uh, some pretty lofty praise.
The bullpen may sneak up on people. They were in the middle of the pack in ERA and FIP last season, but a reunion with Andrew Chafin and a bit of a gamble on Shelby Miller could pay off. Closer Alex Lange had 26 saves with a 3.68 ERA and a 4.36 FIP, but Jason Foley had 70 appearances with a 2.61 ERA and 2.73 FIP. Will Vest was also really good. This is a deeper group than I originally thought and some failed starters may also appear back there.
Detroit Tigers Player to Watch
SP Casey Mize
It feels like an eternity ago that the Tigers took Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. The Auburn product will turn 27 in May and this is a huge year for him. He missed the entire 2023 season, but was reportedly unencumbered during the offseason and has worked to bring back the splitter that made him the 1.1 pick with a $7.5 million bonus in his draft year.
Mize’s velocity is up and his Stuff+ metrics looked really promising after his first outing. His second outing wasn’t quite as sharp, but I’m not ready to write him off. The Tigers are actually doing a lot of good stuff organizationally on the pitching side with former Michigan pitching coach Chris Fetter as the pitching coach and manager A.J. Hinch, who, of course, was instrumental in the development of the Houston Astros.
Detroit Tigers Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I don’t want this comment to be taken out of context, but there are similarities here between the Tigers and the late 2010s Astros and early 2010s Royals. Years of being bad and drafting high led to a bunch of guys hitting the big leagues all at once. Prospects are graduating to the big leagues and are playing prominent roles in all facets.
The thing about the Astros and Royals is that they stayed very healthy. The Tigers, to this point, have not. If they can bubble wrap some guys and get full seasons out of them, 2024 and beyond get really, really intriguing. But, you’re wondering about the 2024 season and the truth is that I don’t know.
I think this is something of a high-variance team. If the kids struggle, the lineup will not be very good. If the kids get hurt, the Tigers will be sellers at the Trade Deadline, looking to move guys like Flaherty, Maeda, Canha, and some of their bullpen arms. Depth is still an issue on the position player side, even with another hot prospect in Jace Jung (28 HR in High-A/Double-A) likely to debut this season.
I think this will be a fun and compelling team. Again, something that hasn’t been said in a while. There is a scenario in my mind where the Guardians and Tigers finish 1-2 in some way and the Twins finish third, so I lean Over the 80.5 with the Tigers, but not with enough conviction to bet it. I did mention Cleveland +350 to win the AL Central. I’m less excited about that bet with Detroit, but I can’t say I dislike it either.
Lean: Over 80.5
Get all of our preseason coverage in the 2024 MLB Betting Guide.
