Dodgers vs. Phillies
A heavyweight fight that would probably have been best suited for the NLCS takes place in the NLDS, with Dodgers vs. Phillies. Los Angeles lollygagged through the regular season a bit and dealt with an obscene amount of pitcher injuries. So, they finished as the No. 3 seed in the Senior Circuit and have to open on the road in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are missing an enormous piece in Zack Wheeler, the front man of one of baseball’s top rotations, as he had to undergo thoracic outlet decompression surgery, which sounds like a big deal for a guy north of 35. But, at least Philly got Trea Turner back on the final day of the regular season, so they’ll go to battle with most of their top players and a bullpen that got a major facelift in the second half of the season.
The Dodgers went 93-69 while the Phillies went 96-66, so it was a difference of three wins separating these two teams. Philadelphia won the season series 4-2, so they would have held the tiebreaker had the teams finished with identical records, though they were outscored 28-27 in the six games. Three of LA’s four losses came in one-run games.
After sweeping the Reds in two games at Dodger Stadium, where the Dodgers were 52-29 with a +96 run differential, they hit the road, where they were just 41-40 during the season. They were +48 in run differential, though, so they got a little bit unlucky, though they were +16 in the games at Coors Field, so that played a big part.
Coincidentally, the Phillies were also 41-40 on the road and +30 in run differential. They were 55-26 at home and +100 in run diff. The goal for both teams here will be to try and finish this series in three or four games to avoid another cross-country trip for Game 5.
Let’s break down the three main phases of the game – offense, pitching, defense – and see if there’s an edge to be had.
Dodgers vs. Phillies NLDS Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers (-125) // Philadelphia Phillies (+105)
Over/Under 3.5 Games (-370/+275) // Over/Under 4.5 Games (+150/-180)
Odds as of 1 p.m. PT from DraftKings Sportsbook on Friday, October 3
Dodgers vs. Phillies NLDS Preview
Offense
These two teams were No. 1 and No. 2 in home wOBA, with the Phillies at .349 and the Dodgers at .347. LA did hit 20 more homers, but the Phillies were 16 points better in batting average, despite a higher K%. On the road, it was a different story, as the Dodgers were 11th with a .315 wOBA and the Phillies were 16th with a .309 wOBA. Add in the travel, time difference, and maybe a little jet lag here and it should be interesting to see how these splits hold up.
The Dodgers did strike out more than 4% more often on the road compared to at home, which may or may not mean something here. It is a fascinating note, though. There are always going to be umpire biases and things of that sort that often lead to teams striking out less at home than on the road, but outside of a team like Colorado, you don’t usually see a gap that big.
Obviously one key thing to look at here is how the Dodgers fared against lefties because they probably get three of them in Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, and Jesus Luzardo with Wheeler on the shelf and a bad year from Aaron Nola. LA was third in wOBA against lefties at .329. But, one thing that does stand out is that their BB% was just 7.9% compared to 9.9% against RHP, while their K% stayed pretty similar.
So, that could be a big positive for the southpaw starters on the home team’s side. The Phillies also had some of the more balanced handedness splits in the league, so even though they’ll get left-hander Blake Snell and some righties, they aren’t working with an obvious handicap based on which arm the pitcher uses.
I will continue driving this point home about the playoffs – home runs matter a ton. The depressed run environment as a result of better pitchers, more aggressive managing, and all of the extreme velocity of the postseason mean that hitting for power is a huge asset. The Dodgers hit five homers in the two games against the Reds. The Reds hit zero homers. LA scored 18 runs. The other teams scored 54 runs total, an average of 7.7 runs per team in the last round. Philadelphia’s pitching staff top to bottom is clearly better than Cincinnati’s, but this just illustrates the importance of hitting the long ball.
Overall, the Dodgers out-homered the Phillies 244-212. Dodger Stadium does have the highest Statcast Park Factor for home runs over a rolling 3-year period. Citizens Bank Park is fourth, but a pretty distant fourth, as the gap between Dodger Stadium and CBP is the same gap between CBP and the 14th and 15th-ranked ballparks. The park, and especially the weather early in the season, absolutely played a role. In fact, if we look from May 1-Sept. 30, the Dodgers only hit nine more homers than the Phillies and just one more from June 1-Sept. 30.
So, there isn’t a super clear gap between the two teams when it really comes down to it. To be honest, I think these offenses are very close to equal.
Advantage: Neither
Pitching
This is where the balance of power probably shifts in the series. I really do like the trio of lefties for the Phillies, but Wheeler is a postseason demon and a simply outstanding pitcher. He’s a huge loss. Philly led the league in pitcher fWAR (FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement) with 24.4. The Dodgers were next with 20.8. But context is important here.
Wheeler accounted for 4.0 fWAR, third behind Sanchez and Luzardo, over his 149.2 innings of work. Nola was awful, but the Phillies had six pitchers make at least 17 starts and the top four guys all started at least 24 games. The Dodgers had one guy, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, make 30 starts. Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May are the only others that pitched at least 100 innings and May is now with Boston. The Dodgers used 17 different starting pitchers and only seven made double-digit starts.
fWAR is a counting stat and you have to be out there to accumulate statistics. Forty different guys pitched for the Dodgers this season. The Phillies only used 28 pitchers and just 10 starters. I keep drawing a parallel to the Vegas Golden Knights and their ways of circumventing the salary cap with guys on long-term injured reserve who just happen to be healthy enough to play in the playoffs. I don’t think anything that has happened with the Dodgers has been nefarious, but guys like Shohei Ohtani, Emmet Sheehan, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Roki Sasaki are all healthy at just the right time.
One way to counteract a powerful lineup is to force it to put the ball on the ground. The Phillies rotation had the second-highest GB% at 46.2%. The Dodgers were seventh at 44.1%. With all the ground balls, the Phillies had a slightly inflated HR/FB% at 11.7% because of sample size, but the Dodgers still exceeded that as a staff at 12.4%. Of course, like I said, the Dodgers used a lot of random starters, so I’m not sure that the discrepancy matters much.
But, the Dodgers’ starters did give up only 94 homers compared to 103 for the Phillies. Again, though, context matters in both cases. Nola gave up 18 in 94.1 innings and Taijuan Walker gave up 17 in 103.2 innings. Neither guy will start here I don’t think. Similarly, though, May gave up 16 HR in 99.1 innings as a starter for the Dodgers to lead the team.
All in all, these are two very strong pitching staffs, but the Dodgers dodged one against the Reds by not having to play a third game. Unlike the other three teams to advance that had to burn another starter, LA did not. They have a lot of options now.
Depending on how they set up the rotation and who they use, there are going to be some outstanding arms working in relief. The Phillies don’t really have that luxury, so I think the overall depth of the Dodgers’ pitching staff gives them the edge.
Advantage: Dodgers
Defense
Using Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, the Phillies were 12th with +10 and the Dodgers were 13th with +8. The Phillies were +19 around the infield and the Dodgers were +16. Infield defense will be huge in this series, particularly for the Phillies with Sanchez (58.3% GB%), Suarez (46.8%), and Luzardo (42.8%). The Dodgers also have Yamamoto (52.8%), Snell (48.7%), and Tyler Glasnow (44.4%).
With the power potency of these two lineups, converting balls in play to outs is even more valuable.
The battle behind the plate greatly intrigues me. Will Smith just got back from injury, but he was one of the worst pitch framers in baseball this season. Dalton Rushing grades below average as well. One Catcher Framing Run better than Smith was J.T. Realmuto. So neither one of these catchers are all that good in the crouch. Furthermore, Realmuto was among the league’s worst at framing pitches at the bottom of the zone. That was not a problem for Smith, who was league average. It may seem inconsequential, but in a battle like this of similar teams and modest edges, it could be a factor.
Both catchers did well controlling the running game. I don’t anticipate a lot of stolen base attempts here, though, as having a runner thrown out is usually not worth the risk in the postseason and not with these kinds of power hitters.
Advantage: Phillies slightly
Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction
This should be an awesome series and I wish we got seven games of it instead of five. I do think it has an excellent chance to go all five, so Over 4.5 Games at +150 is of interest to me.
Ultimately, the difference to me in this series is the overlap on the Dodgers pitching staff and the guys that they can deploy in relief. The guys that they can use for multiple innings as piggybacks. I also think it could help the Dodgers to keep seeing so many lefty starters so that their platoon bats can stay sharper and fresher. I also think LA’s pitchers will be sharper having played a couple games in the postseason already. There are some very long layoffs on the Phillies side of things.
I already took the Dodgers to win the World Series prior to the start of the postseason, so I’m not going to double down at -125 here, but I do believe that they win the series. If you don’t have any existing futures investment in them, it’s a bet I’d make.
Pick: Dodgers -125
Other Division Series Previews: Cubs vs. Brewers | Yankees vs. Blue Jays | Tigers vs. Mariners
