Dodgers vs. Yankees Game 3
By definition, nothing is a must-win game until elimination is on the table. But, doesn’t it feel like Game 3 is pretty much as close as it gets for the Yankees? The shocking Dodgers win in Game 1 coupled with a terrific performance from Yoshinobu Yamamoto has put New York in a hole heading back home for Monday night’s matchup.
The Yankees are favored for the first time in the series with Clarke Schmidt on the bump against Walker Buehler. Many, myself included, felt like Game 3 and Game 4 would be the spots where the Yankees would have the advantage. If they had been able to come away with the win in Game 1, they’d be sitting pretty. Instead, they’re feeling a lot of pressure in the Bronx.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees (-142, 8.5)
8:08 p.m. ET (FOX)
This is basically a flip of the Game 2 line, where the Dodgers were able to hold serve as the favorite. The obvious question for Game 3 is the status of Shohei Ohtani, who is said to be fine. Manager Dave Roberts told ESPN’s Karl Ravech that Ohtani is “in a great spot”. He didn’t look to be in a great spot coming off the field, so we’ll see if that is gamesmanship from Roberts or that the Dodgers avoided all degrees of disaster.
Schmidt has a four-pitch mix of sinker, slider, cutter, and curveball, with the cutter as his most popular pitch this season. Lefties fared a little better against him than righties, posting a .238/.326/.363 slash with a .307 wOBA. Righties had a .221/.296/.349 slash with a .285 wOBA. Schmidt actually had a really good regular season with a 2.85 ERA and a 3.58 FIP and was a steadying force in the rotation while the Yankees waited for Gerrit Cole to return. Unfortunately, Schmidt missed more than three months himself.
He returned for five starts in September and allowed 12 runs (10 earned) on 22 hits in 24.2 innings with a 26/10 K/BB ratio. In two postseason starts, he’s given up four runs on nine hits in 9.1 innings with six strikeouts against three walks. For the most part, he has avoided the long ball in his career, giving up 38 in 314.2 innings, but he has allowed three this postseason already.
The other concern here is that 24 of those 38 HR have come at home, where he has a 4.10 ERA and lefties have a .269/.342/.498 slash in 310 plate appearances. That is one of many reasons why Ohtani’s presence in the lineup is critically important. That short porch in RF is not good for sinker/cutter/slider guys against left-handed hitters.
Buehler had a 5.38 ERA with a 5.54 FIP in the regular season over 75.1 innings. It’s been another throwaway season for Buehler, though a start like what he gave in Game 2 against the Mets would work. He went four scoreless innings with six strikeouts. That was decidedly better than his outing against the Padres with six runs allowed on seven hits.
Buehler did give up all six runs in the second inning and it was a Fernando Tatis Jr. grand slam that served as the big blow. That said, he’s working on 7.1 straight scoreless innings in the postseason. I don’t think that trend continues here.
Lefties and righties eq ually found success against Buehler, as lefties batted .296/.362/.528 and righties slashed .282/.349/.483. He also gave up 16 homers in his 16 starts. He hasn’t pitched since October 16, so I’m curious to see if that has any impact. To that end, Schmidt hasn’t pitched in a week and a half himself.
Even though I, like so many, have obvious concerns about Buehler, the Yankees have a Giancarlo Stanton two-run homer, a Juan Soto solo shot, and two runs manufactured on the bases with stolen bases and wild pitches. They are 2-for-14 with RISP and have struck out 20 times in the series, compared to 10 strikeouts for the Dodgers. The Bronx Bombers really need to find a way to live up to the name against Buehler.
I do like a few wagers here:
Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-140) – they’re making a lot of contact in this series and I worry about Schmidt against powerful lefties with the short porch.
Buehler Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-120) – he’s not going to face Soto/Judge a third time and the Yankees have the chance to bang out enough hits and walks to get around to those guys quickly.
Freddie Freeman to Win World Series MVP (+100) – this is a super short price now, but he has the most iconic playoff home run we’ve seen in a long time and the tough days for his family were well-documented throughout the second half of the season. Voters are writers and they love to tell a story. The Freddie Freeman tale, between what happened off the field and the bum ankle early in the postseason, has a lot of layers. With the Dodgers now -425 to win the series and highly unlikely to lose four of five, it’s hard to see anybody else winning this. Also, if they do finish it, he’s sure to play a huge part based on what we’ve seen so far.
