MLB Player Props for Friday, April 19th
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Friday, April 19th.
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Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 pm ET
Philadelphia had the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching in 2023, and the team has the 15th-highest mark against lefties in 2024. The 2024 number isn’t dooming, but this isn’t the greatest team in the world when it comes to making contact against southpaws. And it’s likely the strikeout rate comes up a bit to match last year’s. So, this is a good matchup for Garrett Crochet to miss some bats. And his strikeout total is down at 6.5 here. Crochet has missed at least eight bats in three of his four starts this season, and he had 10 strikeouts in one of those outings. So, I like him to really puzzle some of these Phillies hitters here.
Pick: Crochet Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-109)
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals – 7:40 pm ET
Dean Kremer had a really solid season for Baltimore last year, but I like Kansas City to do some damage against him tonight. In Kremer’s first start of the year, the righty gave up three earned runs in 5.1 innings against this Royals team. That’s all we’d need from Kansas City in order to cash this play. And Kremer is coming off a start in which he got roughed up by the Minnesota Twins. Kremer gave up six earned on 10 hits on just 4.0 innings of work. That’s a Minnesota team that is just 29th in the league in wRC+ against righties. Kansas City is 10th in MLB.
The Royals also feel due for an offensive explosion. This is quietly one of the most talented lineups in the American League, and the Royals are quite similar to the Orioles with their impressive youth. So, after four games in a row with four or fewer runs, Kansas City should break out here.
Pick: Kremer Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-105)
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 pm ET
I noted a week ago that there won’t be many more opportunities to go Over Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s strikeout props at reasonable prices. Yamamoto then had six strikeouts against the San Diego Padres. That performance came after Yamamoto struck out eight batters against the Chicago Cubs. It just looks like the righty is starting to figure things out, which is scary considering he has some of the nastiest stuff in the league. And it still feels like the oddsmakers are pricing him incorrectly. With that in mind, I’d suggest continuing to play the Over on his strikeout props until the number reaches 6.5 or so. That said, I’d play the Over on 5.5 here, but I’d also look to some alternates.
Pick: Yamamoto Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135) & Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+150 – 0.5 units)
Yesterday’s Plays
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