MLB Player Props for Friday, May 17
The 2024 MLB season is in full swing and we continue to come at it from a bunch of different directions. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Friday, May 17th.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs – 2:10 pm ET
Paul Skenes struggled a bit in his MLB debut, giving up three earned runs in 4.0 innings against this same Cubs team. But Skenes still reached the seven-strikeout mark in that one, and I like him to do it again. This season, Chicago has a strikeout rate of 23.7% against right-handed pitching. Only 10 teams have a worse mark than that. So, this is a pretty good matchup for Skenes, as long as he can just settle his nerves a bit. Skenes was missing bats at an absurd rate in the minors, and he just has some special swing-and-miss stuff. So, I love that this is out there at plus-money odds. Let’s just hope Skenes doesn’t get overwhelmed by pitching at Wrigley Field. This will be a big moment for him.
Pick: Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles – 7:05 pm ET
John Means struck out eight batters against the Cincinnati Reds on May 4th. The interesting thing about that is the Reds aren’t as bad about making contact against lefties. But the Mariners, who have the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching, have the second-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. This Seattle lineup doesn’t discriminate. These hitters will chase no matter which arm you throw with. With that in mind, I think it makes a lot of sense to dial up Means to strike out at least six batters here. You can also get him to strike out five at a heavily juiced number. But I like him to go a bit bigger than that, even though he’s not necessarily a swing-and-miss pitcher. This Seattle team needs to prove that it can avoid high-strikeout games before I stop fading them.
Pick: Means Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 pm ET
James Paxton is an impressive 5-0 with a 2.58 ERA for the Dodgers this season. However, the lefty only has 22 strikeouts in 38.1 innings pitched. And his hard hit rate is 41.7% this season, which leads me to believe that some regression is coming soon. And while the Reds absolutely stink against right-handed pitching, they’re a lot better against southpaws. And Jeimer Candelario is one of Cincinnati’s players that likes seeing lefties. Candelario is batting .295 with six doubles, a homer and six RBIs against left-handed pitching this season. That’s why I like the idea of taking him to go Over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs. It’s available at plus-money odds and I don’t see any reason he can’t come through in this matchup. Candelario has had his struggles this season overall. But he has actually gone Over this mark in four of his last five games.
Pick: Candelario Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105)
Thursday’s Plays
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