MLB Player Props for Thursday, April 11th
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Thursday, April 11th.
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Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals – 2:10 pm ET
Hunter Brown got lit up in his most recent start, giving up five earned runs to the Texas Rangers while walking four batters and giving up eight hits. Brown was all over the place in that outing, and he now faces a matchup that is a lot tougher than it might look on paper. While Kansas City might not be on the radar yet, the Royals are 12th in the league in wRC+ this season. They also happen to be coming off an 11-run performance against the Astros yesterday. So, I like Kansas City to get to Brown in this game. And it doesn’t hurt that Brown gave up six earned in 3.0 innings in his only start against the Royals last season. And it’s also worth noting that Kansas City is ninth in MLB in wRC+ against righties this year.
Pick: Brown Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-108)
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers – 2:35 pm ET
JJ Bleday enters this meeting with the Rangers on a three-game hitting streak. The 26-year-old is also batting .351 with a triple, two doubles, a homer and five RBIs against right-handed pitching this year. So, he’s a guy that I was interested in targeting because of today’s matchup with Jon Gray. The Rangers righty has allowed five earned runs on 12 hits in 7.1 innings of work this season, and he just hasn’t looked all that sharp. So, even if this is a good get-right spot for the 32-year-old, I don’t see him going through this game without a single hiccup. That said, I like the price on Bleday to get a hit today. He might be 0 for 4 against Gray, but it’s a small sample size. And Bleday is swinging a hot bat, so I like him to get to Gray for the first time here.
Pick: Bleday Over 0.5 Total Bases (-150)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 pm ET
Last season, Ke’Bryan Hayes hit .294 with 11 doubles, three triples, seven homers and 20 RBIs in 160 at-bats against left-handed pitching. This season, in an admittedly small sample size, Hayes has stayed hot against lefties. In 14-at bats against southpaws, Hayes is batting .429 with two doubles and three RBIs. The 27-year-old has just proven to be extremely dangerous against lefties, and he’s facing Ranger Suarez tonight. With that in mind, I like Hayes to go Over his combined hits, runs and RBIs against the Phillies. And it doesn’t hurt that Hayes batted .302 with four triples, 18 doubles and six RBIs against four-seamers, two-seamers, cutters and sinkers last year. In 2023, four-seamers, sinkers and cutters made up 61% of Suarez’s pitch distribution.
Pick: Hayes Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145)
Added Plays
Grayson Rodriguez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100) vs. Red Sox
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