MLB Player Props for Thursday, April 25th
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Thursday, April 25th.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals – 2:10 pm ET
Jose Berrios hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a single start this year, but I think that changes today. Berrios is going on the road to face a Royals team that has won two in a row in this series. Kansas City hasn’t really slowed down after a good start to the season, and the reality is that the team might only get better. The Royals are absolutely loaded with talented young players, and I think this team has the potential to look like the Baltimore Orioles in the very near future.
As for this game, Kansas City is 10th in the league in wRC+ against righties this season. And the Royals actually got to Berrios for eight earned on nine hits in 5.2 innings in his only start in Kansas City last year. I’m not expecting another outing quite like that, but the righty is due for a rough start this year. And the Royals are also due for an offensive explosion. Perhaps we’ll see it this afternoon. Berrios throws mostly high-speed stuff, with a sinker, slurve and four-seamer making up most of his pitch distribution. When he’s rolling, that’s great. But it can mean trouble when he’s not. And the Royals have a bunch of players with high hard hit percentages.
Pick: Berrios Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100 – 1.5 units)
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies – 3:10 pm ET
Randy Vasquez pitched 5.0 innings against the Blue Jays in his first start of the year. The righty gave up one earned in that game, and he threw 97 pitches. Seeing him with that long of a leash was good, as he didn’t throw more than 86 pitches in a single MLB start last year. Now, I like the Rockies to get to Vasquez at Coors Field. And the fact he could go somewhat deep in the game only makes it more likely.
Vasquez might have looked good in that first start of the year, but he also happened to have a hard hit rate of 52.9% in that game. So, he was rather fortunate to escape with just one earned run to his name. Well, I don’t see him being so lucky in the most hitter-friendly environment in the league. So, even though the Rockies lineup is miserable, I like Colorado to rough Vasquez up early. And I’m willing to play it at a juiced number.
Pick: Vasquez Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-147)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals – 4:05 pm ET
Two starts ago, I mentioned that Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s strikeout totals were only going to get higher and higher. Well, they’re finally up at 6.5 and this might be where it stops. However, I still like the Over for the righty today. Yamamoto has now had at least eight strikeouts in two of his last three starts. And his swing-and-miss stuff has been downright electric. Now, Yamamoto faces a Nationals team that doesn’t strike out as much as you might think. However, this isn’t a good lineup overall. So, I trust Yamamoto to make these hitters look sillier than your average pitcher. Guys like Joey Gallo, Riley Adams, Eddie Rosario and Nick Senzel lack plate discipline. Yamamoto will exploit that.
Pick: Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Added Plays
Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-103) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday’s Plays
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