MLB Player Props for Thursday, April 4th
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Thursday, April 4th.
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Detroit Tigers at New York Mets – 12:10 pm ET (Game 1)
Jeff McNeil is off to a slow start to the season, as he’s just 1 for 12 through four games. But McNeil is due to get it going soon, so his MLB player props could be profitable to back over the next few games. And I like his chances of having a solid day at the plate against Casey Mize. Of course, Mize is coming off a very solid Spring Training for Detroit, giving up just three earned runs in 18.2 innings of work. But the righty hasn’t started a game in the majors since 2022, so he could be a little out of sorts when he gets to the mound today.
McNeil, who has been an underrated hitter for years now, enjoys facing right-handed pitchers. The 31-year-old has a career .298 batting average against righties, and Mize happens to throw some pitches that McNeil likes. McNeil has always been dangerous against fastballs and offspeed stuff, and four-seamers, splitters and curveballs made up 74% of Mize’s pitch distribution in 2022. So, I’m expecting McNeil to like what he sees and come through with a few hits, or an extra base hit.
Pick: McNeil Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins – 4:10 pm ET
Edouard Julien is slumping to start the 2024 season, as he’s batting just .133 thus far. But this is still the leadoff hitter in a dangerous offense, and he’s facing right-handed pitcher Tanner Bibee today. Last season, Julien batted .274 with 15 doubles, 16 homers and 36 RBIs against righties. And it’s not like Bibee is an unhittable one. The righty gave up three earned on six hits in just 4.0 innings against a weak Oakland Athletics offense on March 30th. And while Bibee was very good in 2023 (10-4, 2.98 ERA), he did have some struggles in Spring Training. So, I think Julien is in a good position to get back on track here, and I’m taking him to have at least two combined hits, runs and RBIs with today’s MLB player props. I like the plus-money odds here more than the significant juice to take the Over on his 0.5-hit total.
Pick: Julien Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+105)
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals – 4:15 pm ET
Lance Lynn only walked one batter against the Los Angeles Dodgers on March 30th, but he walked at least two hitters in three of his four Spring Training outings. Lynn, who is a guy that likes to miss bats, also happens to be facing a Marlins team that doesn’t strike out very often. Last year, Miami was just 23rd in the league in strikeout rate (21.2%) against right-handed pitching. And while the Marlins weren’t particularly high when it came to walk rate, I do think they’ll be wise at the plate in this one. In fact, Lynn actually walked three batters when he faced Miami in 2023. And I don’t see any reason he won’t touch that number again. The only thing I’m worried about is him not pitching deep in this game. But if he gets pulled early, it’s likely because his control wasn’t there.
Pick: Lynn Over 1.5 Walks (-120)
Added Plays
Yoan Moncada Over 1.5 Total Bases (+165) vs. Kansas City Royals
