MLB Player Props for Thursday, March 28th
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Opening Day (Thursday, March 28th).
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Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox – 4:10 pm ET
Last year, Tarik Skubal had at least seven strikeouts in each of his last seven starts. Two of those games happened to be against Chicago. Skubal struck out seven batters against the White Sox on September 3rd. He then had nine strikeouts against them on September 9th. This is just a very good matchup for one of the game’s most electric swing-and-miss pitchers. Chicago had the sixth-highest strikeout rate (25.1%) against left-handed pitching last year. And there’s no reason to believe that the White Sox will significantly cut down on their whiffs this season.
I would normally be a little worried about workload with an MLB player prop this early in the season, but Skubal was stretched out to 85 pitches in his final Spring Training outing. If he flirts with 85-90 pitches here, it’s hard to imagine him not finishing with seven strikeouts. So, look for Skubal to start the year off with a bang.
Pick: Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds – 4:10 pm ET
There are plenty of reasons to be sour on Elly De la Cruz heading into the year. After an outrageous start to last season, De La Cruz cooled down significantly. It felt like MLB pitchers figured out how to pitch him, and he never seemed to make adjustments. But De La Cruz put together a productive Spring Training, going 14 for 50 with two homers and seven RBIs. And the phenom still hit righties a lot harder than lefties last year, so he should be looking forward to a meeting with Josiah Gray. Last year, Cruz actually had three at-bats against Gray and took him yard in one of them. With that in mind, I like the idea of grabbing De La Cruz to go Over 1.5 total bases at plus-money odds. Not only does he have the ability to take Gray deep, but he also has blazing speed on the bases. So, De La Cruz can leg out an extra base hit on what would normally be a single.
Pick: De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks – 10:10 pm ET
Last season, Ketel Marte batted .313 with 15 extra base hits, five homers and 12 RBIs against left-handed pitching. And tonight he’s going up against Kyle Freeland, who he is 15 for 43 with a triple, three doubles, five homers and six RBIs against in his career. It’s not often that you have that much success against a single pitcher. Of course, focusing too heavily on batter vs. pitcher stats can get a little dicey. But this is a pretty significant sample size. Also, Marte hits from both sides of the plate, and he does it at a relatively high level. So, he’ll still be a valuable piece of the lineup when Freeland is pulled. On top of that, Marte had a good Spring Training, batting .370 with a homer and six RBIs in 54 at-bats. That said, I’m excited about going to him in my first MLB player props story of the year. I’m expecting big things at the plate, and playing the Over on this combo got us a better price than his total bases prop.
Pick: Marte Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+145)
Added Plays
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-144) vs. Chicago Cubs
