MLB Player Props for Thursday, May 16
The 2024 MLB season is in full swing and we continue to come at it from a bunch of different directions. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Thursday, May 16th.
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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies – 6:10 pm ET
Jose Quintana is not a swing-and-miss pitcher, with the lefty having failed to reach the five-strikeout mark this season. But Quintana does have a relatively long leash, as the lefty has already touched the 100-pitch mark twice this season. And as long as he works deep in this game, I like his chances of turning in his best performance of the year in the strikeout column. This season, Philadelphia has the fifth-highest strikeout rate (25.0%) in the league against left-handed pitching. So, the southpaw should feel pretty good about getting to face these hitters. Also, Quintana had a 10-strikeout performance against the Phillies last season. He then faced Philadelphia a week later, striking out five batters in that start.
Pick: Quintana Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125) & Quintana Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+230 – 0.5 units)
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros – 8:10 pm ET
The Astros have the lowest strikeout rate (17.3%) in the league against right-handed pitching, so this is not a team I like to bet against in a market like this. However, a 3.5-strikeout total seems pretty low for Joey Estes. The righty is the 11th-ranked prospect in Oakland’s organization. He has a fastball that that sits in the mid-90s and gets pretty good movement, and he also has three other pitches that have helped him turn into a good swing-and-miss pitcher. Estes also just pounds the strike zone, so his control isn’t much of an issue. We just saw Estes have five strikeouts against the Seattle Mariners in his first start of the season. That means that Estes has had at least five strikeouts in each of his last two MLB outings. Of course, this is a tougher matchup for the 22-year-old. But I still think four strikeouts sounds very reasonable for a pitcher with good stuff.
Pick: Estes Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 pm ET
I don’t target the Reds quite as frequently as I do the Mariners, but Cincinnati has the second-highest strikeout rate (26.8%) in the league against right-handed pitching. So, on a smaller slate, it’s hard not to go against them with my MLB player props. With that in mind, I’m taking Tyler Glasnow to rack up nine strikeouts in tonight’s start. I generally like to stay at 7.5 or lower with these types of plays, but that’s just not realistic with a pitcher like Glasnow. The righty has struck out at least nine batters in each of his last four starts, and his 33.6% strikeout rate puts him in the league’s 95th percentile. So, Glasnow should be able to use his electric stuff to take advantage of a Cincinnati lineup that chases far too often.
Pick: Glasnow Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Wednesday’s Plays
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