MLB Player Props for Thursday, May 23
The 2024 MLB season is in full swing and we continue to come at it from a bunch of different directions. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Thursday, May 23rd.
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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds – 1:10 pm ET
Jake Cronenworth is batting .296 with a triple, two doubles, eight homers and 31 RBIs against right-handed pitching this year. So, he’s a player I knew I wanted to target when I saw that today’s meeting with the Reds has the highest total on the board. Cincinnati is sending Frankie Montas to the mound today. Cronenworth is just 0 for 3 against Montas in his career, but that’s a small enough sample size to ignore. The reality is that Cronenworth should be excited to see any righty out there, especially in Great American Ball Park. This is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball. That said, I trust Cronenworth to come through for a San Diego offense that should come alive this afternoon.
Pick: Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145)
Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics – 3:35 pm ET
You can deal with significant juice to take Joey Estes to record five strikeouts tonight, or you can get plus-money on the righty to have six. I’m going with the latter. Estes hasn’t yet recorded six strikeouts in a start this season, but he’s a pitcher that throws a lot of strikes and has decent swing-and-miss stuff. The righty also threw 89 pitches in his most recent start, so he’s likely going to be given the opportunity to work somewhat deep in this game. And if he can flirt with 5.0 or 6.0 innings pitched here, I just don’t see him struggling to make noise in the strikeout column. The Rockies have the fourth-highest strikeout rate (26.0%) in the league against right-handed pitching this season, so the matchup is tremendous. This will also be Estes’ first home start. He should be amped up and ready to go.
Pick: Estes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+130)
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox – 7:40 pm ET
The White Sox are the worst team in the league against right-handed pitching when it comes to wRC+. Meanwhile, Grayson Rodriguez is coming off 6.0 innings of shutout baseball against the Seattle Mariners on Saturday. Rodriguez has now given up no earned runs in each of his last two starts, although one of them was against the New York Yankees on April 29th before a short stint on the IL. But Rodriguez just has some of the most impressive stuff in the league, and I don’t really see him running into trouble against this Chicago lineup. So, I’m grabbing him to give up one or fewer earned runs here, which is available at some really favorable odds. There’s obviously a lot of risk that comes with playing an Under on this small of a number, but this is a very talented pitcher against a lousy offense. It also feels like the oddsmakers are trying to beg people to take the Over.
Pick: Rodriguez Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-103)
Wednesday’s Plays
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