MLB Player Props for Thursday, May 30
The 2024 MLB season is in full swing and we continue to come at it from a bunch of different directions. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Thursday, May 30th.
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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners – 4:10 pm ET
I don’t blindly take righties to go Over their strikeout totals against the Mariners, but I do consistently check to see if a favorable matchup is there. And this is a pretty small slate, so my eyes went here first. Also, Spencer Arrighetti should be able to give Seattle’s hitters some trouble. Arrighetti’s overall statistics definitely leave a lot to be desired, as he’s 2-5 with a 6.93 ERA this season. But the 24-year-old also happens to be coming off a seven-strikeout performance against the Oakland Athletics. And he has had at least six strikeouts in four of his last six starts.
Arrighetti is the third-ranked prospect in the Astros organization and he has gotten better and better since getting in the system. Arrighetti has upped his velocity and become a much more dangerous swing-and-miss pitcher. Arrighetti just has to find a way to avoid walks, which have plagued him early this season. But even if he does let up a few runs here, I like his chances of missing a ton of bats. He has the stuff and the Mariners have the highest strikeout rate in the league against righties.
Pick: Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets – 8:40 pm ET
Christian Scott has been good for New York this year. The righty hasn’t earned a win this season, but that’s because of a lack of run support. Scott has still allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of his four starts. And it’s completely understandable that the Under on his 2.5-run total is heavily juiced tonight. However, I do think that a matchup with the Diamondbacks is a little tougher than it might seem on paper. Arizona has scored three or fewer runs in five consecutive games, but this offense has proven that it can pounce on the right matchup. And considering Scott’s pitch distribution isn’t that diverse, I can see Arizona finding a little something offensively here. The top of the order will be especially difficult for Scott to navigate. So, I’m taking the Over at plus-money odds here.
Pick: Scott Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+123)
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels – 9:40 pm ET
Aaron Judge is batting just .250 with three homers, four doubles and nine RBIs against lefties this season, but he has historically hit lefties pretty damn hard. So, I like his chances of coming through at the plate in a meeting with Patrick Sandoval tonight. This season, Sandoval is 2-7 with a 5.60 ERA. Sandoval also has a relatively high hard hit percentage and sweet spot percentage. That said, I think this is a really good matchup for Judge, who will also have the luxury of hitting in one of the most hitter-friendly ball parks in the league. In fact, Angel Stadium is first in Park Factor this season, according to Baseball Savant. Judge also happens to be the best hitter, on the better team, in a game with one of the highest totals on the board. So, this was easy enough.
Pick: Judge Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110)
Wednesday’s Plays
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