MLB Player Props for Tuesday, April 16th
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Tuesday, April 16th.
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Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles – 6:35 pm ET
The Twins had the highest strikeout rate in the league (27.0%) against right-handed pitching last year. And it’s not like things have gotten any better in 2024. While two teams in the league have higher strikeout rates against righties, Minnesota’s 27.4% strikeout rate is higher than it was last year. With that in mind, I see no reason not to play Grayson Rodriguez to fan seven tonight. Rodriguez only had five strikeouts against the Boston Red Sox last start, but he had at least seven in each of his previous two outings. And Rodriguez might have had seven or more if he didn’t get off to a really lousy start against Boston. But after the first inning, the phenom settled in and looked like his usual dominant self. So, I like him to bounce back from that performance and miss a bunch of bats against the Twins.
Pick: Rodriguez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros – 8:10 pm ET
I had Hunter Brown to give up at least three earned runs in his most recent start and he gave up nine earned on 11 hits and didn’t make it out of the first inning. That was a start against the Kansas City Royals, and it was an outing that followed up a start in which he gave up five earned on eight hits in just 3.0 innings against the Texas Rangers. Brown is just having a lot of trouble getting himself going right now, and a meeting with the Braves isn’t the best medicine. Atlanta is first in the league in wRC+ against righties this season, and this lineup is just loaded with dangerous hitters. Also, Minute Maid Park was 12th in Park Factor in 2023, according to Baseball Savant. And it’s third in Park Factor in 2024. So, it’s not like this ballpark will make things all that tough on the Braves.
Pick: Brown Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-125 – 1.5 units)
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 pm ET
Like Brown, Kyle Hendricks is a pitcher I want to fade. However, his earned runs allowed total is up at 3.5. So, I’m instead looking to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to do some damage in this game. The 30-year-old is batting .275 with three doubles, four homers and 18 RBIs this season, so he’s already off to great start to the year. Sure, Gurriel is just 0 for 9 over his last two games, but that almost makes him due here. And Gurriel has had some success against Hendricks in a small sample size, going 3 for 5 with a double and two RBIs against the righty.
Pick: Gurriel Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
Jon Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) vs. Detroit Tigers
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150 – 1.5 units) vs. Diamondbacks
Patrick Corbin Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-104 – 1.5 units) vs. Dodgers
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