MLB Player Props for Tuesday, April 23rd
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Tuesday, April 23rd.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals – 6:45 pm ET
Patrick Corbin got roughed up in his last start against the Dodgers, giving up five earned runs on nine hits in 6.1 innings. However, I had Corbin to go Over his strikeout total in that one and he hit it with five strikeouts in the game. I don’t see any reason Corbin can’t turn in a similar performance here, especially with this game being played at home. Corbin has now had at least four strikeouts in two of his last three starts, and this mark just feels way too low — even against an elite offense. Only 10 teams in baseball have a higher strikeout rate than Los Angeles. So, even though the Dodgers are dangerous, they can struggle to make contact more than you’d think.
Pick: Corbin Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-134 – 1.5 units)
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays – 6:50 pm ET
Ryan Pepiot has been electric with his swing-and-miss stuff this season. The righty has had at least six strikeouts in three straight starts, and he has racked up 24 total in that span. Last start, Pepiot hit the Over on his strikeout total by going Over 6.5 in a dominant performance against the Los Angeles Angels. And I see no reason not to go away from Pepiot here. Pepiot was once an elite prospect and he is clearly living up to his billing, making none of this seem like a fluke. And Pepiot now gets a crack at a Tigers team that has the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the league (24.9%) against righties. With that in mind, I expect Pepiot’s pitches to be even more effective against a lineup that struggles to make contact.
Pick: Pepiot Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102) & Pepiot Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+150 – 0.5 units)
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies – 8:40 pm ET
Michael King is coming off a dominant start against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Padres ended up losing that game, but King threw 7.2 innings of one-run ball and struck out 10 batters. However, King gave up four earned on six hits in 5.0 innings in his previous start. And he’s still somewhat unproven at this point in his career, even if he did have a good year for New York last season. With that in mind, I’m skeptical about King going into Coors Field and coming out unscathed. That’s why I’m playing the Over on his earned runs allowed total. Last year, King made an appearance in relief in Colorado and gave up two earned runs in just 2.0 innings. No pitcher is safe in this ballpark, even against a lousy lineup.
Pick: King Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-132 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
Christian Walker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Logan Webb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140 – 1.5 units) vs. New York Mets
Monday’s Plays
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