MLB Player Props for Tuesday, April 9th
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Tuesday, April 9th.
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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox – 2:10 pm ET
After giving up just one run and striking out 11 hitters in 6.0 innings in his first start of the year, Corbin Burnes was a little less sharp in his second. The righty gave up two earned on nine hits in 5.2 innings against the Kansas City Royals. And I expect him to have to similarly battle on the mound against the Red Sox today. Last year, this Boston team was top 15 in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. This year, the Red Sox are 13th in that category. This is just a very underrated Boston lineup, so I think it’s unrealistic to expect Burnes to give up one or fewer earned runs here. This game will also be played at Fenway, which was the third most hitter friendly park in Park Factor in 2023, according to Baseball Savant.
On top of all that, this is Burnes’ first road start of the year. So, he might be a little unsettled early on. That’s why I’m going Over on his earned runs allowed with today’s MLB player props.
Pick: Burnes Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-142)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds – 6:40 pm ET
If you want to take the Over on Joe Ross’ strikeout total, you can either deal with some juice to go Over 4.5 or get plus-money odds on him to have Over 5.5. I’m going to do the former here, but I do love Ross as a target for today’s MLB player props. The righty had a rough go in his first start of the year, walking five batters and striking out only three hitters in 3.2 innings against the Minnesota Twins on April 3. Ross did leave the game without giving up any runs, but he put a little too much on the Brewers bullpen. However, I like Ross to bounce back in a big way here, at least in the strikeout column.
Last season, the Reds had the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the league against righties. And they have been a lot worse in that regard in 2024, as they’re second highest in the league with a strikeout rate of 27.3%. Ross also struck out 17 batters over 12.0 innings in Spring Training. So, he has showed that the swing-and-miss stuff is there. He just needs to be a little more precise today. His control was way off in his first start of the year, and that forced him out of the game early.
Pick: Ross Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-147)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies – 8:40 pm ET
I had Blackmon to go Over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs yesterday. The 37-year-old responded by going 2 for 4 with a triple and a homer. Blackmon is swinging a hot bat to start the year, as he’s now batting .325 with a homer and six RBIs — as well as two triples and three doubles. And I like the lefty slugger to keep things rolling in a game with the highest total on the board. The Diamondbacks are throwing Merrill Kelly out there for this start. And while the righty has been excellent to start the year, nobody is safe when pitching in Coors Field. And Blackmon made contact in all three of his at-bats against Kelly in their first meeting this year. I expect him to have some better batted ball luck in Colorado, making him one of my main targets with todays MLB player props.
Pick: Blackmon Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
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