MLB Player Props for Wednesday, April 3rd
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Wednesday, April 3rd.
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Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals – 1:05 pm ET
Corbin Burnes struck out 11 hitters in 6.0 innings of one-run ball against the Los Angeles Angeles on Opening Day. It was a brilliant home debut for the righty, who now faces a Royals team that was amongst the worst in the league against right-handed pitching last season (28th in wRC+). And while Kansas City doesn’t exactly strike out at a high clip, it’s hard to turn down plus-money odds on Burnes to strikeout at least seven batters today.
Burnes struck out seven in 6.0 shutout innings against the Royals last season, and he has had an entire offseason to work with one of the best organizations in sports about how to streamline his approach on the mound. So, Burnes is very much live in the AL Cy Young Award market, and we saw how brilliant he can be in his debut. I like him to back it up here, so I’m playing the Over on 6.5 strikeouts with today’s MLB player props.
Pick: Burnes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics – 3:37 pm ET
Nick Pivetta was electric in his first start of the year, striking out 10 batters in 6.0 innings of one-run ball against the Seattle Mariners. Now, Pivetta gets to follow it up against a miserable Athletics lineup. Last year, Oakland was 25th in the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and the team isn’t looking much better to start 2024. So, I expect Pivetta to navigate this lineup with very few issues. Last year, Pivetta gave up only two earned runs over 11.0 innings against the A’s, and he struck out 21 batters in those games.
I thought about going to Pivetta’s strikeout prop again here, but it was heavily juiced to take the Over on a high number. So, I’m playing him to pitch at least 6.0 innings with today’s MLB player props instead. He hit that mark in one of his two outings against Oakland last year, and he probably would have done it again in the other if he wasn’t on a pitch count. But Pivetta threw 84 pitches in his first start of the season. If he’s in the ballpark of 85 pitches again, I think he gets this done.
Pick: Pivetta Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals – 6:45 pm ET
Bryan Reynolds is swinging a hot bat to start the 2024 season, as he’s batting .333 with three doubles, a homer and eight RBIs thus far. Reynolds is also coming off a game in which he went 2 for 5 with a double and three RBIs against this Nationals team. Well, Reynolds now gets a crack at a mediocre right-handed pitcher, with Trevor Williams taking the mound for Washington.
Although it’s a very small sample, Reynolds is 2 for 5 against Williams in his career. But it shouldn’t surprise anybody if he continues to find success against him. Williams doesn’t have any overwhelming stuff and Reynolds is dangerous from both sides of the plate. So, he is capable of taking advantage of weak pitching, whether he’s hitting from the right or left side. So, even though he has mostly come through against lefties this season, I like this spot for him and I think the value is hard to pass up for tonight’s MLB player props.
Pick: Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
