Finding Value in MLB Future Bets on DraftKings

This is the least excited I’ve ever been for Opening Day. But that didn’t stop me from finding some MLB future bets on DraftKings, including a 500/1 MVP bet.

AL MVP

Wyatt Langford 500/1 at Circa $200 to win $100,000.

 

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A rookie has only won MVP twice before, and one of those times was Ichiro Suzuki, who doesn’t really count as a traditional rookie (the other is Fred Lynn in 1975).  With a strong start this spring and Corey Seager likely not ready for opening day, the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers have slotted rookie Wyatt Langford third in the batting order.

Langford was drafted with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft and is considered somewhere between a very good player and the next Mike Trout. While it is very unlikely that a rookie wins MVP, if the Rangers think he’s good enough to bat third in their Opening Day lineup without ever taking a Majior League at bat, I’m happy to take a shot at 500/1. If Langford is as good as advertised, it wouldn’t surprise me to see it drop significantly once the season starts. It happened with Corbin Carroll last year, and he ended up finishing fifth in the MVP voting while being a unanimous Rookie of the Year.

Langford’s spring #s: 16 games, 17 hits, 12 runs, 5 home runs, 17 RBIs, 13 strikeouts/5 walks, .378/.442/.756.

NL MVP

If you haven’t bet Oneil Cruz MVP yet, you have probably missed the boat and should pay better attention to what I’m writing. I said to bet him at 100/1 two weeks ago. For the last week, 100/1 down to 70/1 was widely available, but when I checked today, DraftKings has moved Oneil Cruz down to 25/1, with only 10 players having shorter odds. Obviously, you can only get so excited before the season starts, but it’s nice to have 100/1 on something that is going to close much lower before Opening Day. I am a big Oneil Cruz fan this year. 

AL Cy Young

Corbin Burnes +800 at DraftKings, risking $500.

I was on the fence with making any AL Cy Young bets, but with Gerrit Cole starting on the injured list and likely out of serious contention from the start, I decided to make a bet on Corbin Burnes at 8/1. Burnes was a winner for me a couple of years ago after Jacob DeGrom went down mid-season. A move to Baltimore should only help him. Pretty happy with 8/1 on Burnes relative to the other names in the field. I also bet some Cole Ragans earlier. He’s down to 12/1 at Draftkings. I will shop for more numbers on Burnes and Ragans in Vegas this week.

NL Cy Young

Tyler Glasnow 14/1 at DraftKings risking $500

A season of relative health from Tyler Glasnow in LA and he should be a serious contender for the NL Cy Young. The Dodgers might be the team that can unlock his potential, and the only thing really holding him back will be staying healthy.  I added a bet on Glasnow this week to go along with my earlier bet on Chris Sale. I ended up taking 50/1 on Sale to win NL Cy Young. I’m happy to see it down to 30/1 at Draftkings. I am relatively happy with my futures bets so far before the Dodgers/Padres open the season.

AL Rookie of the Year

This MLB futures market here is going to be really competitive at the top, with Evan Carter and teammate Wyatt Langford competing with Jackson Holliday of the Orioles. Any one of these three can win. Beyond them, there are several other contenders, but I think going into Opening Day, it’s reasonable to expect the ROY to be won by one of these three players until something changes. Like I wrote above, I’m interested in playing Langford to win MVP, but I don’t have any strong opinion on what favorite to play at low odds here.

NL Rookie of the Year

A more interesting MLB futures market with an import pitcher at the top and on the mound early in Game 2 of the regular season for the Dodgers in South Korea. So we get a bit of an early look at Yamamoto this week.

Not to be overlooked Jackson Merrill is now the fourth favorite at 10/1, down from a high of 50/1 or so a few weeks ago. Merrill won the starting CF job for the Padres, He’s another guy we get to have an early look at this week. If you didn’t see my recommendation to bet him last week or hear me talk about him on Gill’s show, this is another guy you missed the boat on. No value now. But Merrill at 10/1 is much more reasonable than 50/1, considering he will be an Opening Day starter now. I still don’t understand how these pitching numbers get made. They are all still bad. Even Yamamoto. You are better off betting him to win the Cy Young if you think he’s a +175 favorite for ROY before throwing a pitch. I will have to write the same thing every week, but Spencer Strider didn’t win the damn award, and it’s hard to project full-season rookie pitching numbers better than that. The important point is that if you bet Oneil Cruz for MVP or Jackson Merrill for Rookie of the Year, you already have a lot of CLV before the season starts.  

Reliever of the Year

I mentioned this award last week, and I liked Raisel Iglesias at 9/1 and Evan Phillips at 10/1. However, I didn’t understand how Devin Williams was the favorite at 3/1 while on his way to see a spine specialist.

The market has adjusted. Iglesias is now +650, Phillips is +950, and Devin Williams is now at the bottom of the list at 50/1. Edwin Diaz is the favorite at +300, but I’m happy to have the second and third favorites now, although I’m surprised Phillips hasn’t moved more.

Other Props/Futures

If you still want a home run prop for Oneil Cruz and missed his MVP number, DraftKings has over 24.5 home runs -120. That is probably short based on Cruz’s spring. I also previously recommended Oneil Cruz over Elly De La Cruz in a h2h home run prop bet.

Oneil Cruz was -125 in this matchup, and that has drifted up to -175 now. You could bet Elly De La Cruz back at +140 now. I wouldn’t, but I am pointing out that another MLB futures bet I recommended at -125 two weeks ago is now -175.

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