Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Prediction:
The Kansas City Royals dispatched the Baltimore Orioles in the American League Wild Card round in two games. They enter Game 1 of their series versus the New York Yankees with momentum and veteran starting pitcher Michael Wacha in a big spot on the road.
Wacha enters having allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts, posting a 2.88 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings in this span. This year, he posted a 3.35 ERA with 7.8 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings.
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Since the All-Star Break, the bullpen supporting Wacha has posted a similar ERA to the Yankees. The Royals were 16th in the league with a 4.00 ERA in the second half, but their 3.54 fielding independent ranks eighth in that span. The Yankees’ 4.00 fielding independent in that span is 17th, while their bullpen’s 3.84 ERA ranks 14th.
The Yankees look to starting pitcher Gerrit Cole to take the pressure off the bullpen. He owns a 3.41 ERA with 8.4 strikeouts and one home run per nine innings allowed, but he has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts.
While the Kansas City Royals has scored the fewest runs of any team in the league since September 1, including the postseason, the return of Vinnie Pasquantino is big as entering August 29, the day of the final regular season game he played, the team was averaging 4.9 runs per game, ranking third in the league.
The Yankees counter with an offense that leads the American League with just over five runs per game, but have actually been at their best on the road. They average 4.8 runs per game in Yankee Stadium while notching just under 5.3 runs per game on the road.
The Yankees also lead the league in percentage of at-bats that result in a home run. With the weather getting colder in New York in October, some of the balls that flew out of the yard during the summer months might die at the warning track now.
With the return of Pasquantino, coupled with Wacha having plenty of big-game experience from his time with the St. Louis Cardinals, the Kansas City Royals are a pesky underdog with a good amount of value on Saturday.
MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals +175
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