Game 1 San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction:
After beginning the 2024 MLB season in March in South Korea, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers hook up in October for the right to go to the National League Championship Series. The Dodgers have home-field advantage for Game One on Saturday.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the start for the Dodgers. Yamamoto has made four starts since coming off the injured list in September. Though he has pitched five innings or fewer in those starts, he has allowed only six runs total since returning.
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Yamamoto has a 3.00 ERA and a 2.61 fielding independent, while Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease enters having allowed at least three runs in seven of his past nine starts.
Cease owns a 3.47 ERA despite 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He has only allowed 0.9 home runs per nine innings with a 3.10 fielding independent, but he is in a funk regardless.
In his past nine starts, Cease has a 3.66 ERA and has seen his walks per nine innings rise to over 3.8, higher than his season-long 3.1 walks per nine innings rate.
The Padres back Cease with a lineup that led the league in batting average against right-handed pitchers at .272. Their 4.95 runs per game on the road ranked seventh in the league.
The Dodgers’ 5.2 runs per game are the most of any team that made the playoffs. It helps offset a bullpen that is 15th in the league with a 4.03 ERA since July 1, while the Padres’ 3.55 ERA in that span ranks 10th.
The Dodgers’ lineup backs up Yamamoto with the highest home runs per at-bat percentage in the National League. With Cease’s ERA jumping to 3.83 on the road this season, the Dodgers will protect their home field and win on Saturday.
MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -124
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