MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Tigers vs. Guardians, Marlins vs. Phillies, Mets vs. Cubs, and Astros vs. Athletics.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Tuesday, September 23.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has a 3.86 ERA with 3.3 walks per nine innings, but he’s in his best form right now with two runs or fewer allowed in eight of his past 10 starts. Pirates starting pitcher Johan Oviedo has a 3.03 ERA across his past six starts but is issuing over 4.2 walks per nine innings in that span, with a 4.66 fielding independent. He’s supported by an offense that ranks last in home runs and total scoring at 3.7 runs per game.
Picks: Reds Moneyline -143 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -157, Total 8.1)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal is the odds-on favorite for the American League Cy Young thanks to his 2.23 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.77. He faces a Guardians lineup that ranks 29th in run creation at home with 3.8 runs per game but has a bullpen that is fourth in ERA at 3.52. Guardians starter Gavin Williams has a 3.06 ERA with 4.5 walks per nine innings and comes in pitching his best, with just four total runs allowed in his last four starts.
Pick: Tigers vs. Guardians Under 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 6.8)
6:45 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies rank second in baseball in run creation at home with 5.5 runs per game and will look to get to Marlins starter Edward Cabrera, who is making his first start since August 30. Cabrera owns a 3.57 ERA this season but has allowed at least five runs in three of his past four starts. He’s backed by a lineup that is fifth in road scoring at over 4.8 runs per game but faces Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez, who has a 2.66 ERA with just 0.6 home runs and two walks allowed per nine innings.
Picks: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +104 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -1.5 -124, Total 8.3)
7:07 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito has a 3.46 ERA with a 4.12 fielding independent, along with 3.3 walks and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that leads the American League in run scoring since the All-Star Break with nearly 5.5 runs per game. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman owns a 3.38 ERA with one home run and 2.4 walks per nine innings, but he’s up against a Red Sox lineup that ranks sixth in scoring with 4.9 runs per game. The Blue Jays bullpen has struggled, ranking 24th in ERA since the start of July at 4.65.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.9)
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starter Cade Horton owns a 2.66 ERA this season, though some regression may be due as he has allowed just five total runs across his past 11 starts despite a 3.53 fielding independent and only 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Mets starter David Peterson is in a rough stretch, allowing at least three runs in each of his last four starts, pushing his ERA to 3.98. He does have eight strikeouts per nine innings but also 3.4 walks, and he’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 20th in ERA at 4.37 since August 1.
Picks: Cubs Moneyline -118 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -137, Total 8.1)
9:45 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
It has been a rough run for Cardinals starter Andre Pallante, who owns a 5.29 ERA and has allowed at least four runs in 10 of his past 13 starts. Giants starter Logan Webb has a career 2.85 ERA at home and a 3.27 ERA overall this season, with 9.7 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. He’ll face a Cardinals lineup that ranks last in scoring since the All-Star Break with fewer than 3.8 runs per game.
Picks: Giants Run Line -1.5 +115 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Giants -1.5 -123, Total 7.8)
10:05 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics
Athletics starter Jeffrey Springs has a career-low 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings with a 4.17 ERA and 4.71 fielding independent. At home, his ERA climbs to 5.00 with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Behind him is a bullpen ranked 24th in ERA at 4.56. Astros starter Cristian Javier has a 4.45 ERA, but his 3.89 fielding independent suggests he’s been better than the ERA shows, with only 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. The Astros bullpen ranks ninth in ERA at 3.69.
Picks: Astros Moneyline -104 and Under 10.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -137, Total 9.8)
