MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Rays vs. Orioles, Pirates vs. Reds, Tigers vs. Guardians, and Mets vs. Cubs.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Wednesday, September 24.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
12:15 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has been far better of late, allowing two runs or fewer in five of his past six starts, but for the season still owns a 5.36 ERA, which jumps to 6.81 at home. He faces a Nationals lineup averaging 4.6 runs per game away from home, ranking 11th in the league. Nationals starting pitcher Andrew Alvarez has a 2.84 ERA in his four starts since getting called up, but his 3.51 FIP with 7.7 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings suggests some regression, and he’s supported by a bullpen that ranks last in ERA at 5.61.
Pick: Nationals vs. Braves Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.3)
6:35 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz owns a 4.99 ERA this season, allowing 1.4 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. He faces an Orioles lineup that ranks 15th in runs per game at home (just under 4.5) compared to 27th on the road (just under four). Orioles starter Tyler Wells has been excellent since returning from the injured list, allowing just four total runs across 17 2/3 innings in three starts.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -108 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -132, Total 9.3)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starter Hunter Greene has had a superb season, posting a 2.74 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all 10 of his home starts. He faces a Pirates lineup that ranks last in both home runs and scoring (3.6 runs per game). Pirates starter Paul Skenes remains the Cy Young favorite with a 2.05 ERA, 10.4 strikeouts, and just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -116 and Under 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -141, Total 6.8)
6:40 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians’ lineup ranks 29th in home scoring at 3.8 runs per game but is backed by a bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA at 3.52. Tanner Bibee takes the mound with a 4.34 ERA overall this season and career-worst marks of eight strikeouts and 1.4 home runs per nine innings, though he has a 3.35 ERA and just 0.9 home runs allowed per nine at home. Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has a 4.60 ERA despite striking out 10.5 per nine, but he allows 1.3 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -116 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -119, Total 7.9)
8:05 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has struggled recently, allowing at least four runs in five of his past six starts. Still, he benefits from the wind blowing in at Wrigley on Wednesday. Overall, he has a 3.20 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings, which improves to a 2.45 ERA at home. Mets starter Jonah Tong has struggled in his first four career MLB starts, posting a 5.94 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -130 (Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -147)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Twins starter Taj Bradley has a 5.20 ERA this season with 3.6 walks per nine innings. Since joining the Twins, he’s struggled even more, posting a 7.82 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine in five starts. Rangers starter Jacob deGrom has also had some recent struggles, allowing at least three runs in three of his past four starts. Still, he owns a 3.01 ERA overall with 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings, supported by a 3.67 FIP.
Pick: Rangers Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -1.5 -111, Total 8.1)
9:45 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starter Robbie Ray comes in with his worst form of the season, having allowed at least five runs in four of his past five starts, though he still has a 3.65 ERA overall with 9.2 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine. He faces a Cardinals lineup that ranks last in scoring since the All-Star break with fewer than 3.8 runs per game. Cardinals starter Sonny Gray has also struggled since the break, posting a 5.67 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine in his last 12 starts.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -119 (Greg’s Handicap: Giants -137)
