Houston Astros 2024 preview
The 2023 Houston Astros won their sixth straight division title in a full 162-game season. They finished second in the COVID year and still made it to Game 7 of the ALCS after posting a 29-31 record. They made it to Game 7 of the ALCS again this past season, but came up short to the eventual champion Texas Rangers, blowing a 3-2 series lead with back-to-back home losses.
Part of me wonders whether or not that was a little bit of foreshadowing. The Astros only won 90 games last season, their fewest number of wins in a full season since 2016. They allowed 698 runs, the most in a season since 2017 when they gave up 700. They did score 90 more runs than the World Series winning team of 2022, so the offense still seems to be humming right along.
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It does feel like there are some cracks in the foundation. At the same time, they’ve kept the core group intact, even with a front office change, and are still at the forefront of player development in a lot of ways. At some point, the magic will wear off and some leaner times will arrive. I’m not sure it happens this season or even next season, but there are some parts of the roster that I’ll be following very closely as this season goes along.
2024 Houston Astros Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Mar. 9)
World Series: +800
AL Pennant: +400
AL West: +100
Win Total: 92.5 (-125/-105)
Make Playoffs: Yes -425 / No +340
Houston Astros Preview: Offense
Admittedly, perhaps my reservations are a little bit of wishful thinking because the status quo can get pretty boring and the Astros have regularly been the best or second-best team in the American League for the better part of a decade.
This was a top-five offense again with a 112 wRC+. Only the Rays and Rangers were better among AL teams and only the Braves and Dodgers were better among NL teams. The Astros finished seventh in homers and posted the third-lowest K%, so they find power without sacrificing contact. That allows them to carry a high batting average and also a high on-base percentage.
Between his stature and his age, you could make a case for Jose Altuve slowing down. Then you look and see that he slashed .311/.393/.522 with a 154 wRC+ last season over 90 games and that case gets pretty weak. Health seems like the only thing that could hold him back, which is true of any player, and especially one like Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez posted a 170 wRC+ in 496 plate appearances. He did miss a little time, but nothing too crazy and he was ridiculously productive when he was in the lineup.
To be honest, this offense could get even better. Yainer Diaz now takes over full-time as the catcher, replacing the weak stick of Martin Maldonado. Maldonado had 407 PA with a 66 wRC+, which means he was 34% below league average. Diaz, who had 377 PA, had a 127 wRC+ and hit 23 homers in his first full MLB season. Add more of his bat to the likes of Kyle Tucker, who was one homer shy of a 30/30 season, and Alex Bregman in a contract year…
Mix in what I believe will be a better offensive season from Jeremy Pena and what should be a more productive campaign for Jose Abreu and this team doesn’t have any hint of slowing down with the bats. Abreu’s 86 wRC+ was a huge departure from every other season in his career, where his worst season featured a 114 wRC+. Age is very much a factor with the 37-year-old, but he still had an above average Hard Hit% and some rare plate discipline issues. He might be done, but he’s replaceable if so.
The sickest thing about the Astros is that they have all these dudes that can hit, but they’re also a really good defensive team in a lot of areas. They were just outside the top 10 in Outs Above Average. Also, Maldonado was -17 framing runs. Diaz was -5, but it isn’t a stretch to think that the Astros will get better defense behind the plate this season.
Houston Astros Preview: Pitching
If the Astros are vulnerable, it will be in this department. Houston was 12th in starter ERA last season and 18th in FIP. Framber Valdez spent a good portion of the season as the front-runner to win the AL Cy Young and ultimately finished with a 3.45 ERA and a 3.50 FIP over 198 innings. He posted a 4.66 ERA in the second half over 87 innings, due in large part to a really ugly stretch in July when he was dealing with an ankle injury.
Beyond Valdez, the Astros have serious questions. Justin Verlander is already hurt and he may finally be showing signs of age. Cristian Javier wound up with a 4.56 ERA and a 4.58 FIP as his strikeout rate plummeted and he gave up too many barrels. He went from 17 homers in 148.2 innings to 25 HR in 162 innings. What’s crazy is that he just completely lost it during the season. Javier had a 2.97 ERA with a 3.79 FIP over his first 63.2 innings. He had a 5.58 ERA with a 5.09 FIP over his final 98.1 innings.
Hunter Brown did not develop as the Astros had hoped he would. He posted a 5.19 ERA with a 4.37 FIP and showed clear signs of fatigue while working 152.2 innings. Jose Urquidy only made 10 starts. Luis Garcia only made six and will miss most, if not all, of the 2024 season. That puts J.P. France in the rotation after he had a 3.92 ERA with a 4.69 FIP in 133 innings, so there are some clear regression signs in his profile.
It is entirely possible that we get the Brown that the Astros thought they’d get, as he is a guy with a high strikeout rate paired with a high ground ball rate. Those guys typically find a lot of success and Brown had a .334 BABIP against with a 68.3% LOB%, so he does have some positive regression indicators in his profile.
It is also entirely possible that Javier bounces back, as he posted a 2.54 ERA with a 3.16 FIP in 2022 over 148.2 innings. There is a definite case to be made that Brown and Javier make leaps relative to last season and any concerns about the pitching staff melt away.
The Astros front office and coaching staff have had a knack for being problem-solvers. It is a lot harder to change and fix things on the fly in the middle of a season. With a full offseason to tweak and tinker, I can’t help but give them the benefit of the doubt that they’ll fix the problems that their key arms had. It may be as simple as getting Javier back a tick of velocity and helping Brown push through the dog days of summer.
If that is the case, this will be another top-tier bullpen and the Astros are in their rightful place as the AL favorites. This year, the Astros even added Josh Hader, so they now have one of the game’s most dynamic relief arms to go with Ryan Pressley, Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and others.
Houston Astros Player to Watch
SP Justin Verlander
Father Time comes for everybody, but he seems content to leave Verlander mostly alone. Last season, JV’s K% dropped to 21.5%, which is the lowest mark in a season since 2015. His Hard Hit% jumped to 40.8%, which was a career-worst in a full season. He allowed an 11.9% Barrel% with the Astros. When all was said and done, he still posted a 3.22 ERA with a 3.85 FIP, which is outstanding, especially for an age-40 season.
I am concerned about the hard contact. I am concerned about the 9.9% SwStr%, which was actually below league average and a huge decrease from the previous few seasons. He still got chases and swings and misses that way, but he wasn’t able to throw it past guys in the zone as much and Z-Contact% is a big indicator of stuff quality to me.
Houston Astros Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
Try as I might, I can’t find reasons to be all that pessimistic about the Astros. The starting rotation clearly has some potential landmines, but these are talented arms with either minor league pedigree or Major League success. The offense is going to border on elite again and maybe even get there, as some lesser hitters were pressed into more action last season due to some injuries.
As long as the Astros stay healthy, it does appear as though they will win their seventh straight AL West title in non-COVID-shortened seasons and they will once again be a factor in the postseason. With the strength of the AL West and some improved teams in the other divisions as well, I could certainly see the Astros replicating last season’s 90-win season. However, the floor for this team is so insanely high that I couldn’t possibly bet the Under 92.5. The range of outcomes on the low end is still a lot higher than it would be for any other team.
If anything, I think there may be a clearer path to improvement than the opposite.
Lean: Over 92.5
Get all of our preseason coverage in the 2024 MLB Betting Guide.
