Houston Astros 2025 preview
The Houston Astros took down another AL West Division title, but did so with their fewest number of wins since 2016. Coincidentally, that was the last time that the Astros missed the playoffs. Was it simply a little bit of a down year or was it the start of a downward trend for a team that has been the gold standard in the American League for a while?
Not only did the Astros only win 88 games, but they didn’t win a single playoff game, getting bounced by the Tigers in the AL Wild Card Series. Houston only mustered a total of three runs on 12 hits in those two games. Recently, Houston has seemed to gradually move away from an analytics-driven front office. While they’ve been able to keep a good amount of the position player core together, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker are all playing elsewhere this season.
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That’s not to say that replacements like Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker are going to be albatrosses for the ballclub by any means. And it simply happens, right? Teams that experience a lot of success with young players graduating to the Majors all at once eventually get to a point where they can’t keep them all. Just ask the Cubs and Royals about that. Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez are still around, but there is something of a changing of the guard with Houston at this stage.
So, like I said, are we seeing the beginnings of a downward trend for the Astros? Other teams are getting more and more Ivy Leaguers in the front office. Other teams have figured out how to increase pitcher velocity and maximize arsenals more effectively. The Astros have had a brain drain in the front office and other teams have caught up, whether they’re copycatting Houston’s methods or have their own.
When you get to that point, it becomes about the players. Houston doesn’t have the same players that they once did and now they need to figure out how to stay ahead of the game
2025 Houston Astros Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 24)
World Series: +1500
AL Pennant: +650
AL West: +125
Win Total: 87.5 (-105/-115)
Make Playoffs: Yes -185 / No +145
Houston Astros Preview: Offense
Tucker missed more than 90 games, but led the Astros with a .419 wOBA and a 180 wRC+. The circumstances surrounding his prolonged absence were pretty weird, as he got off to a blistering start and then fouled a ball off of his shin on June 3. Originally labeled a shin contusion, it took forever for Tucker to come back, but he finally admitted three months later that the foul ball had actually resulted in a fracture.
Given that Tucker missed such a huge chunk, the fact that the Astros still had a top-10 offense by wOBA and a top-five offense by wRC+ was impressive. Yordan Alvarez had another monster season with a .402 wOBA and a 168 wRC+, but there was a big drop after that. The Astros still had 11 players with a wRC+ of 100 or better, including seven full-time players. But, Tucker, the leader of that group, is gone. So is Bregman, who had a .331 wOBA with a 118 wRC+.
Jeremy Pena hasn’t really been the hitter that the Astros had hoped he’d be and I’m skeptical of Yainer Diaz coming off of a season with a .338 BABIP, even with some good contact quality metrics. To me, the offensive upside for the Astros comes down to the new guys in Walker and Paredes. The soon-to-be 34-year-old Walker was a little bit of a late bloomer, not latching on full-time until his age-28 season after playing at South Carolina. He’s been a productive bat every season but one and that should continue in Houston. He’s coming off of his best season by Barrel% and third-best by Hard Hit%.
I don’t see any age decline just yet from Walker, which could be a concern over his three-year deal. It’s the 26-year-old Paredes who I find more interesting, though, as he has really good bat-to-ball skills for a guy that has also carried a double-digit BB% in his three full MLB seasons. He’s a statistical anomaly, though, in that he has terrible contact authority metrics with a career 29.7% Hard Hit% and a 4.9% Barrel%, but he’s hit 70 homers over the last three seasons.
The shallow Crawford Boxes in left field with his extreme fly ball rate could up his power production, along with getting out of Tropicana Field. I’m curious to see how this one plays out. He’s a very odd player statistically.
I still think this will be a good offense. There are some potential depth issues at the bottom of the order, but we’re likely to see a little more platoon deployment from Houston as a result. The bench is pretty perfectly constructed to do that. The other development to follow is that Jose Altuve has been playing some outfield in Spring Training. The questions on this team are in the outfield, where Chas McCormick, Ben Gamel, and Jake Myers all have underwhelming offensive projections. Given that Altuve has been -41 Defensive Runs Saved over the last three seasons at second base and was -8 in Outs Above Average last year, it might not be a bad idea to put him out there. You know he’s going to hit, too.
Houston Astros Preview: Pitching
My belief is that the Astros rotation will be a polarizing topic among pundits and analysts in the lead-up to the season and probably during it as well. Last year’s pitching staff was sixth in ERA and 13th in FIP. Most of the same faces are back. Some are in more prominent roles than they were, but the only noteworthy acquisition is Hayden Wesneski, who was part of the Tucker trade with the Cubs.
The injured list would make up a pretty decent MLB rotation with J.P. France, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers, who is in the final season of a five-year, $85 million deal in which he’s made a total of eight MLB starts, might be back late in Spring Training and could be an option at some point. Garcia is now a year and a half removed from his Tommy John surgery, so he’ll likely be a first half option as depth.
Valdez enters a contract year and the Astros have not had many talks with him regarding an extension, as he’s pitched to a 3.30 ERA with a 3.54 FIP in 888.2 innings of work. He’s made at least 28 starts each of the last three seasons and is a ground ball machine with excellent home run rates and a strong K/BB ratio. With Javier’s contract set to nearly double next season and a big raise for Alvarez, it seems like the Astros will let Valdez walk. This could also be a situation where they are in contention, but trade him to get pieces to help now and for the future. It’ll be something interesting to watch.
Where the Astros rotation really gets intriguing is with the right-handed starters. Hunter Brown had a good full second season with a 3.49 ERA, 3.31 xERA, and 3.58 FIP, but questions linger. He cut his Hard Hit% from 44% in 2023 to 30.3% in 2024 and cut his Barrel% by more than half, going from 10.9% to 4.5%. The Astros made a change to throw more sinkers and changeups instead of four-seamers and curveballs and the changes were wildly successful, particularly with how he leveraged the fastball against those other secondaries.
Brown’s second half was decidedly better than his first half, so the pitch mix changes took hold and worked well. If he can run a 7.6% BB% for the season like he did in the second half, he’s a Cy Young candidate at 25/1. That’s more than I can say for Ronel Blanco, whose strong 2.80 ERA came with a 4.00 xERA and a 4.15 FIP. His 83.6% LOB% and .220 BABIP suggest clear negative regression. He also held the opposition to a .144/.210/.279 slash with a .214 wOBA with RISP. He’s not a guy I’m betting on for a big season this year.
I’d rather bet on Spencer Arrighetti, who had a 4.53 ERA with a 4.05 xERA and a 4.18 FIP. Arrighetti has to cut down on the walks, something that the Astros had great success with in terms of Brown and Valdez over the years. He’s got tremendous swing and miss upside with excellent minor league home run rates. He’s just outrageously inconsistent. He made 28 starts and gave up 7+ runs in four of them. He also had four starts with 10+ strikeouts. If the Astros can harness him and develop a slider-heavy arm like Wesneski, the ceiling rises for this team in a hurry.
Houston’s bullpen was eighth in ERA, but 22nd in FIP last season. Tayler Scott had a 2.33 ERA with a 4.29 FIP over 61 appearances, so he was a big part of the discrepancy, as was Rafael Montero, who is back as a non-roster invite, but had a 4.70 ERA with a 6.40 FIP in 41 appearances. I think this bullpen probably slides back a little in ERA. This isn’t really a strength like it used to be.
Houston Astros Player to Watch
SP Spencer Arrighetti
I have to talk more about Arrighetti, who has elite extension and the good swing and miss numbers, but there are a lot of rough edges to smooth out. Arrighetti’s fastball was punished last season, as he allowed a .303 BA with a .528 SLG. His curveball yielded a .171 BA with a .282 SLG and he had some success with his cutter and sweeper as well.
Not surprisingly, Arrighetti went from a 5.63 ERA and a 4.50 FIP in the first half with a .352 wOBA against to a 3.18 ERA with a 3.78 FIP and a .303 wOBA against in the second half when he more consistently used his curveball and cutter. His four-seam fastball usage in August and September was under 40%. He gave up nine runs (three earned) in his first September start, though, so that was an ugly one. If you can deal with the Jekyll and Hyde nature and the occasional disaster, I think he’s a roller coaster worth riding this season.
Houston Astros Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I’ll be honest and say that I went into writing about the Astros with the expectation of not liking what they had to bring to the table as much as I do. I think this offense could still be quite good, but in a really different way, especially if Altuve shows competency in the outfield and they can slide better bats into the lineup as a result. The rotation has some boom or bust potential and the guys returning from injury are not stiffs. Garcia and McCullers have been effective Major Leaguers.
The AL West is underwhelming as a whole. I’m not very high on Texas and Seattle’s lineup worries me. The Angels still aren’t very good and the Athletics, while probably improved, are not a threat. Houston is the deserving favorite in the AL West and last season’s 88 victories might be enough to win it again. That is also the number required to go Over their win total.
It’s not a pick for me at this time, but if it looks like Altuve can play LF or RF and the rotation gets through camp unscathed with others on the comeback trail, I think I can buy in.
Stronger Lean: Over 87.5
