Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies:
The Philadelphia Phillies return home on Monday to face the Houston Astros in a rematch of the 2022 World Series and perhaps a sneak peak for 2024.
Astros starting pitcher Ronel Blanco will look to keep his surprising 2024 season going. He enters with a 9-6 record and a 3.14 ERA, but he has allowed at least three runs in three of his past five starts and appears due for further regression.
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Blanco’s fielding independent of 4.33 is more than a point higher than his ERA. Among qualifying starting pitchers, he has the lowest opponent batting average on balls in play at .209.
The Phillies offense Blanco faces is second in the league in home scoring with over 55.3 runs per game. The Astros counter with a lineup that is averaging nearly 4.6 runs per game, ranking 12th in the league.
Since the start of July, the Phillies bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball, ranking 27th entering the week with a 5.24 ERA in this span. They need starter Zack Wheeler to fill a lot of innings.
Wheeler enters Monday on an extra day of rest. It sounds good in theory, but for his career, Wheeler has a 3.04 ERA and 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed when pitching on four days of rest compared to a 3.70 ERA and over 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings.
While Wheeler overall this season has been dominant with a 2.73 ERA, pushing him out of his comfort zone might not be the best thing as Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts.
With the Phillies bullpen behind him regressing and the offense entering having scored at least four runs in all three of their games in their previous series against the Kansas City Royals, the run production will continue on Monday.
MLB Pick: Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies Over 7.5 Runs (Still Like At Over 8 Runs)
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