How to Bet Against the Colorado Rockies

How to Bet Against the Colorado Rockies:

Everyone wants to bet against the Colorado Rockies and for good reason. They are a putrid 8-42 heading into Friday’s game against the Yankees, with 37 of their 42 losses by two runs or more. The deeper you dive, the worse it gets. They are tied for the second-least runs scored, way to go Pirates, and are the only team in the majors to have given up 300+ runs (323). Just 50 games into the year, they are -159 in run differential. 

All that equates to them being massive dogs every game as the season wears on, often seeing the opposing team in the -250 to -400 range on the money line. Many books have adjusted to a -2.5 run line vs the standard -1.5 line to compensate for the atrocious performance. That means it is getting more and more expensive to just bet against them day in and day out. 

With the additional prop markets available, there are now some more interesting ways to play, so let’s cover a couple before getting to the one that I have been attacking. 

Opposing Starter to Record a Win

This can be a fun one in many cases. You simply need the opposing starter to record a win for the game, and if this was consistently plus money, I would be more interested. The unfortunate truth is you need a lot to go right, even against a bad team, to cash this bet. The pitcher must go five innings or more, leave with the lead, and have the team never relinquish it. This line generally moves in conjunction with the money line and, in Rockies games, it’s being lined at a more aggressive number than versus other teams. Again, at plus money sure, but laying -160, it’s a pass.

Offensive Props

This is where I do think there is some value. I’ve been keeping an eye on the Hits + Runs + RBI and Total Base markets versus the Rockies over the last two weeks and those have also moved dramatically from what would be considered normal pricing. The Runs market specifically has gotten out of hand. During the series versus the Phillies, you had to lay up to -200 for some Phillies players to score a run. 

With a team giving up 6.5 runs per game, I do want to find a way to bet the opposing offense. You can play team totals, but those have moved to 6 or more in every game now, so we must be more creative. 

RBI Props

Here’s the goods. This is the market that has adjusted the least to how poorly the Colorado Rockies have played. While you do need a home run or runners on base to record an RBI, the pricing is much better. The high-water mark for Phillies players in the four-game set at Coors was -140. I specifically mention Coors because I want to play teams on the road to take advantage of the mile-high environment, and I want the guaranteed ninth inning at bat. Let’s look at the last three series at Coors Field and specifically the 2-5 hitters in each lineup.

Tigers – May 7-8 – three games – 10 of the 12 hitters recorded an RBI
Padres – May 9-11 – three games – eight of the 12 hitters recorded an RBI
Phillies – May 19-22 – four games – nine of the 16 hitters recorded an RBI

That’s 27 of the last 40 two-through-five hitters in the road lineups recording an RBI, with the majority of them at +100 or better. In the two road series in between those, the 2-5 hitters went a combined 10 for 24, recording an RBI in six games. 

With the Yankees coming to town, I will continue to monitor pricing, but until I see a drastic change, I will be betting players to record an RBI in the heart of the lineup for the road teams at Coors.