Betting on Spring Training baseball
Many people will scoff at the notion of betting on Spring Training baseball, but there are some tips and strategies that could prove to be very profitable. Some of my friends and colleagues in the sports betting world, specifically sharp MLB handicappers, have been able to find edges on the games and get their seasons off to a really good start.
Here are some tips to keep in mind for betting Spring Training baseball:
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Listen to the Managers
Much like preseason football, we get an advance copy of the script. Spring Training is long and it is a great time for beat writers and national reporters to get access. Managers are way more accessible and much more forthcoming with information than they are during the regular season.
They will discuss playing time for position players and the list of pitchers that will be available that day. The beat reporters and even team PR personnel will tweet those things out on social media. More often than not, we’ll know how many pitches a starter is going to throw, who will follow, and in what order.
That information can be extremely valuable, as you could have one team using five or six actual Major Leaguers and another team using a bunch of minor leaguers or guys on the roster bubble.
You also get pitchers working on things and the managers (or players themselves) may address that. Sometimes a guy will be working on his fastball command and throw 90% fastballs. Another guy might be working on breaking balls, which are harder to control and lead to more walks and shorter outings. All of these things can provide a betting edge.
Lineups
This is pretty simple and a tenet of handicapping the regular season as well, but lines move quickly once lineups are released. Who’s in and who’s out?
A lineup full of Major Leaguers and top prospects against a lineup with a lot of minor leaguers and fringe roster guys is going to get the benefit of the doubt, so that line will move.
That feeds into my next point…
Bet Early
It does not take many bets or a lot of money to move Spring Training lines. Also, betting limits are a lot lower for these games than a normal regular season game. You want to try and bet as quickly as possible when information breaks regarding the lineup and the pitchers that will be used.
If you jump in early, you are way more likely to get closing line value (CLV). Depending on how much CLV you have, you can choose to let it ride and have a really good wager compared to the market line or even consider betting the other team in the game to give yourself the opportunity to guarantee profit or “free roll” the game no matter who wins.
By getting the best line that you can early on, you get a lot more bang for your buck and have the best chance at having success.
Check the Weather Forecast
Spring Training takes place in Florida and Arizona. Hot, humid conditions are the best for offense and you’ll get a lot of that in the Sunshine State, even in the months of February and March. Arizona is dry, but still warm and sunny, and some games feature a little bit of elevation in and around the Phoenix area. Scottsdale is about 2,200 feet above sea level. Any ballpark in that area would rank second in elevation in MLB.
Wind is also a factor in both places. You can get some games with the winds blowing out at 20+ mph and the sportsbooks may not adjust quickly enough.
Check the TV Schedule
With sports networks cutting costs left and right, not all Spring Training games are broadcast to the fans back home. Messaging may come down from the front office to give the home fans something to be excited about for a game on TV, especially one that is on in primetime. You’ll often see something closer to the Opening Day lineup in a game like that than you would a random road game in the middle of the week.
Players are on schedules during the Spring Training period because the goal is to get everybody some work, but also to hit the regular season healthy. Some of the more important games may get preferential treatment from the coaching staff, so you can assume when star players will get their reps in and when they’ll be working on back fields or have a day off.
Bet Responsibly
While there are ways to get line value and have good bets, it is still Spring Training. You’re still going to have minor league relievers pitching the ninth inning and have to rely on minor league hitters in the late innings. The variance and volatility are high, but there are people out there who do a really great job of getting closing line value or picking winners just by following the information that is out there.
As always, bet responsibly and maintain proper bankroll management, but don’t just shy away from Spring Training because of the perception of the games. Any bet can be a good bet if you have actionable information and work hard to find an edge.
