Finding Value in MLB Futures
Let’s dig into some more MLB futures bets to consider as 2024 Opening Day nears. I used DraftKings for all my odds this week.
The Yankees
Bad news for the Yankees this week as Gerrit Cole needs an MRI for his elbow and it’s not looking very positive. The Yankees announced Tuesday that Cole is going to undergo more testing and it will be a couple of days until everybody weighs in on it. We might not see Cole pitch again until 2025. The AL Cy Young Award market is off the board in the meantime, but losing your ace is nothing short of a disaster for the Yankees. Where do you find 200+ replacement innings two weeks into March? The Yankees all of a sudden have a huge hole at the top of their rotation.
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If that’s not bad enough, Aaron Judge also had an MRI on his abdomen Monday. Judge won’t swing a bat for a couple of days and his “goal” is to play Opening Day. That’s a great goal, but it’s not very promising when your star slugger with a bad toe is saying things like “I don’t want to speculate or talk about anything that hasn’t come yet. The most important thing is taking some time now and be back out there soon.” If Judge needs to take some time off now, I’m not sure how he’s going to hold up for a 150+ game season. He’s going to need days off at this rate. Manager Aaron Boone also described Judge’s shape as “mid-spring beat up,” which is a phrase I’ve never heard before and sounds entirely made up to hide the fact Judge is already injured before the season starts.
What does this mean for the Yankees? Nothing, yet. But it’s not great that Cole needs second opinions on his elbow and Judge is already “mid-spring beat up,” whatever that is supposed to mean. We need to keep an eye on this developing situation in New York, but I made a small bet on the Yankees to miss the playoffs. Going from a rotation anchored by Gerrit Cole to one anchored by Carlos Rodon (who has looked awful this spring) and Marcus Stroman does not inspire confidence, and Juan Soto can’t carry a team to the playoffs by himself (see: Padres 2023). The Yankees looked like they were going to improve on their 82 wins last season, but if they lose these 200 Cole innings, not only do they not have anyone to replace him, there is literally nobody who can give you those 200 innings at the level Cole brings.
MLB Futures Bet: Yankees to miss the playoffs +200 for $500
Oneil Cruz
Cruz, the Pirates slugger, hit his fourth home run of the spring Tuesday morning and he has been one of the most impressive players in spring training over the first few weeks. Cruz is hitting .316-.435-.947, with a 1.382 OPS, four homers and seven RBI, and it seems like he’s finding new ways to break Statcast.
Health and strikeouts (and the Pirates probably not being a very good team) are going to stand in Cruz’s way from being a serious MVP contender, but it’s nice to see DraftKings has dropped him to 70-1 from 100-1 in the last week. Still a long way to go, but I see plenty of names on the list with lower odds than Cruz who have zero chance of winning, for example Ozzie Albies (50-1), Michael Harris (40-1), Xander Bogaerts (50-1). I don’t know who is making these numbers, but these are all bad and are missing a 0. I would like to sit down with the person who thinks Elly De La Cruz is 40-1 for NL MVP and William Contreras is 40-1 and Oneil Cruz is 70-1. I would really like to book this person.
Cruz currently has three of the five hardest-hit balls this spring and his upside is that of a 30 home run/30 stolen base shortstop with elite defensive range. He’s also 6-foot-7 and physically can make plays on defense and swing at pitches as a batter that other guys just can’t get to. His full-season projections of 24+ home runs and 26+ stolen bases are only comparable to other superstars like Ronald Acuna, Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jose Ramirez, Randy Arozarena and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Like I said, health and strikeouts might prevent Cruz from being a serious MVP contender, but it is encouraging that so far his strikeouts-to-walk ratio is 1:1 this spring with four walks to go with four strikeouts (don’t read too much into this small sample). I expect a Cruz breakout this year and an outside shot at being in the MVP race.
If you didn’t bet Cruz to win MVP already, I wouldn’t necessarily, do it at 70-1. Shop around and see if you can find anything over 80-1; 100-1 would be better. But once the season starts (if not by the end of this week), it should be well under 50.
MLB Futures Bet: Nothing
NL MVP
The Dodgers are doing something unusual with Mookie Betts, a career outfielder. They announced in December that Betts would be their full-time second baseman. Now, in the middle of spring training, they’re moving him to shortstop. As far as I can tell, there is only one player who has played 100+ games at shortstop in his career after winning a Gold Glove in the outfield, and that was Tom Tresh, who played for the Yankees in the 1960s and I had never heard of. But moving a six-time Gold Glove winner from outfield to shortstop is unprecedented.
I’m sure the Dodgers know what they are doing and it’s important to remember that Betts started 62 games at second base and 12 at shortstop last season and was the runner-up for MVP behind Ronald Acuna. I’m guessing the plan isn’t to make Betts the full-time shortstop and a trade is in the works. If I didn’t already have a position on Cruz, I’d be interested in Mookie Betts here at +650, but I think there will be plenty of time once the season starts to catch better numbers on many of the guys at the top of the NL MVP race.
MLB Futures Bet: Nothing
AL Rookie of the Year
The Orioles’ Jackson Holliday leads the way at +250 with Evan Carter right behind him at +300. Wyatt Langford, Carter’s Rangers teammate who is yet to play in an MLB game, is third at 4-1 and Junior Caminero of the Rays is fourth at 8-1. Caminero, however, was just optioned to the minor league camp, ostensibly to work on strikeouts as the Rays manipulate his service time. We likely won’t see Caminero on Opening Day, but he’ll be up in May, exactly one day after the Rays get another year of service time out of him, coincidently.
Colt Keith of the Tigers is another guy I have my eye on, and he’d probably have lower odds if he was on the Yankees or Orioles. Colton Cowser of the Orioles has seen his odds drop from 33-1 to 20-1 this past week. It’s very crowded top of the board in the AL, and the only thing I’m particularly sure of at this point is that a pitcher isn’t going to win AL ROY this year.
MLB Futures Bet: Nothing
NL Rookie of the Year
Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto leads the way still at +175. But betting +175 on a pitcher to win Rookie of the Year before the season might be one of the worst possible bets you could make. This market is entirely made up. It makes zero sense, less than zero sense that you’d have four pitchers with 20-1 odds or less (Yamamoto +175, the Cubs’ Shōta Imanaga 10-1, the Giants’ Kyle Harrison 14-1, the Pirates’ Paul Skenes 20-1). Except Yamamoto, none of these guys is going to pitch close to the innings or get the strikeouts that Spencer Strider did when he lost the Rookie of the Year award convincingly to his own teammate. These odds just make no sense and there will be opportunities once the season starts to further identify the value in the non-pitchers.
MLB Futures Bet: Nothing
Reliever of the Year
DraftKings is offering a new market called “Reliever of the Year’ in the AL and NL. I haven’t done a deep dive into these so far, but I see Devin Williams is the +300 favorite to win Reliever of the Year in the NL and this number again makes zero sense. Williams has a back injury and is going to see a spine specialist, which is exactly what you want to see next to a +300 favorite before the season. That’s not to mention that every pitcher who throws a screwball sees his arm eventually detach from his body (only slight hyperbole there).
Second favorite Edwin Diaz is coming off a torn Achilles from the 2023 World Baseball Classic and hasn’t pitched in over a year, but sure, make him the second favorite. I just don’t understand this market.
I’m inclined to back Dodgers closer Evan Phillips here at +1000 and/or Raisel Iglesias, who should be closing for the Braves at +900. Otherwise, I just see a bunch of names I don’t really care about and half of them probably lose their closer jobs or get injured.
MLB Futures Bet: Iglesias NL Reliever of the Year +900 for $250; Phillips NL Reliever of the Year +1000 for $250
Other Bets
Oneil Cruz over 23.5 home runs -115 to win $500
Adding to my Cruz position here. If he stays healthy and plays 150+ games, this number is short and is the lowest we’ll see in the coming seasons. If it loses, I’m out $575.
Pete Alonso most home runs +700 risking $500
I added $500 on Pete Alonso to hit the most home runs. Alonso announced he’s going to donate $1,000 to dog rescue charities for every home run he hits this year, and I hope he breaks every modern and ancient baseball home run record. My best home run future on Alonso so far is $500 at 10-1, and if that wins I’m donating the whole future to one of my favorite dog rescues, Connor and Millie’s Dog Rescue in Las Vegas, where I am already a regular monthly supporter.
There you have it. By my count, that’s $2,075 in new futures this week to go along with the $8,200 I bet last week. So I guess we’ll call it $10,075 I’ve bet so far this season on MLB futures at DraftKings.
