Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 preview
When I think about the Los Angeles Dodgers, only one quote comes to mind. “Don’t hate the player, hate the game.” Every team in Major League Baseball could, at least to some degree, replicate what the Dodgers are doing by spending tons of money thanks to the benefit of deferred dollars. It wouldn’t be financially sound, and that kind of overhead would make any future sale remarkably difficult, but your favorite team’s owner could spend more money.
But, there are a lot of teams out there that may not want to be paying current roster players until 2046, which is precisely what the Dodgers will do with Blake Snell, one of two prized free agent grabs this offseason. Snell has $13.2 million deferred annually from 2035-46 to be paid on July 1 in a lump sum. Snell was also paid a $52 million signing bonus and will make $26 million annually over the five guaranteed years.
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Mookie Betts will be paid until 2044. Shohei Ohtani until 2043. Freddie Freeman until 2040 (he becomes a free agent after the 2027 season). As I was doing the research and the writing, it felt overwhelming just to look at what the Dodgers have done.
To me, a biased fan of a small-market team, what Rob Manfred and his cronies are allowing the Dodgers to do is unfair and damaging to the sport. The counterargument, of course, is that spending tons of money doesn’t guarantee championships. The Dodgers have two of them, and one without the COVID asterisk after winning the 2024 World Series, but it sure does give you an incredible chance at getting into the playoffs and that is half the battle.
And that’s precisely it, right? The game’s financials are fundamentally flawed. So I can’t hate the player. The Dodgers are giving themselves a major competitive advantage by being willing to spend in this environment and do so by any means necessary.
As a result, they are the clear favorites to run it back and celebrate again this fall.
2025 Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 18)
World Series: +300
NL Pennant: +170
NL West: -450
Win Total: 103.5 (-110/-110)
Make Playoffs: Yes -2500 / No +1300
Los Angeles Dodgers Preview: Offense
People who say that money can’t buy happiness must not be Dodgers fans because a lot of them were very happy watching this offense. The Dodgers led baseball in slugging percentage, wOBA, and wRC+ during the 2024 season. They were second to the Diamondbacks in runs scored, third behind the Yankees and Brewers in BB%, and fourth behind the Brewers, Reds, and Diamondbacks in FanGraphs’ all-encompassing Baserunning (BsR) metric.
Thanks to the re-signing of Teoscar Hernandez, they’ll basically run back the offense again, but with Hye-seong Kim in place of Gavin Lux and Michael Conforto in place of Jason Heyward. Betts is slated to play shortstop this season, with Kim at second, probably in a platoon situation with Chris Taylor and/or Miguel Rojas. Tommy Edman shifts to CF with Conforto in LF and there you have it.
Max Muncy was limited to 293 plate appearances last season due to injury. There is a path for this Dodgers offense to be even better. I’m not sure Shohei Ohtani will put up the same season he did while focusing on pitching as well, but a healthy Conforto will outperform what Heyward did and Muncy is a premier hitter.
It’s hard to really say much more about the offense. This group has a good mix of power, speed, patience, and contact skills. It is a brutal lineup to turn over and one that will get better at the Trade Deadline if necessary, as the Dodgers have a surplus of Major League talent and continue to develop well internally. That’s exactly what they did last year with Edman, who they signed to an extension this past winter.
Los Angeles Dodgers Preview: Pitching
Besides, it’s way more interesting to look at the pitching staff here. Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki is only 23 years old, so he technically signed a minor league deal for the Dodgers, which means he won’t take up a 40-man roster spot. Given that the Dodgers have done a lot of wheeling and dealing of late, 40-man spots are pretty precious and they won’t use one on Sasaki until they know he’s ready. I assume he’ll debut at some point in 2025, but I can’t see him making the Opening Day roster. The Dodgers are saying he’ll likely pitch in the Tokyo Series, but I’m thinking that means the exhibition games, not a regular season game.
There are a lot of moving parts with the rotation as a whole. Snell is probably the healthiest arm of the bunch after being limited to 20 starts last season with some issues early in the year. Snell signed late in the process and likely rushed to be part of the Giants rotation, leading to some discomfort that took him out from April 20 to May 22 and then again from June 3 to July 9. From July 9 through the end of the regular season, he allowed a total of 12 runs on 33 hits in 80.1 innings of work.
Japanese import Yoshinobu Yamamoto was restricted to 18 regular season starts due to injury and limped his way through 18.2 playoff innings with a 3.86 ERA. He was outstanding in his World Series start, but less outstanding in the other two rounds. Tyler Glasnow’s season ended on August 11 after he posted a 3.49 ERA with a 2.90 FIP in 134 innings. He says his elbow is healthy. I say I’m still worried about a guy who set career highs in starts and innings pitched last season with 22 and 134.
Tony Gonsolin missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery. Dustin May missed all of last season after surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon and then surgery to repair an esophageal tear in July. He also only made 18 starts across three levels in 2022 and five starts in 2021 due to Tommy John. Emmet Sheehan had TJS in May 2024, so we might see him after the All-Star Break at some point. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and is likely to miss the entire year, along with River Ryan, who had TJS in August.
So, uh, yeah. That’s a lot of very large, very thick medical files. The Dodgers still have Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski, and Ben Casparius on the 40-man. Basically, the Dodgers are perfectly fine with getting 100-120 innings from a large collection of guys instead of shooting for the 200-inning starter that everybody wants.
If the Dodgers fall short of expectations, it will be this part of the team. The bullpen looks very strong once again, especially with the signings of Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, as well as a full season of Michael Kopech. But, as we saw last year, the Dodgers are plenty capable of going out and trading for a Jack Flaherty type at the Deadline because of how well their internal scouting and development staffs do to stockpile the organization with tradable assets.
Los Angeles Dodgers Player to Watch
SP Tony Gonsolin
Gonsolin is a tough guy to figure out coming into the season. His Tommy John surgery would suggest that he wasn’t healthy in 2023 when he posted a 4.98 ERA with a 5.89 xERA and a 5.43 FIP in 103 innings at the MLB level. Over 272.2 innings from June 26, 2019 when he debuted through October 3, 2022, Gonsolin had a 2.51 ERA with a 3.45 FIP. His .223 BABIP seemed extremely unsustainable and 2023 could be chalked up to some negative regression.
At the same time, I’d be hard-pressed to say that the Gonsolin we saw that year is what we can expect going forward. I don’t think what he did before that was repeatable, but his 2023 was quite awful, especially ending with 10 runs on eight hits over 3.1 innings to the Marlins with five home runs allowed. A return to his pre-TJ self could net tremendous surplus value for the Dodgers. A return of his 2023 self puts a ton of pressure on the rest of the rotation.
Los Angeles Dodgers Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
104 wins is a lot of wins. This team is capable of it. Last year’s team was capable of it, too, and won 98 games. A lot of things happened. You had Freeman’s off-field situation with his son. All the pitcher injuries. Betts missed nearly two months after getting hit by a pitch. Muncy played 55% of the games he’s played pretty much every other year.
Will the Dodgers run a cleaner sheet on the health front this season? Remember, there are three other pretty good teams in the NL West. The more balanced schedule certainly helps their projection, shaving off 18 games against the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants. My rule of thumb is usually not to play extremes – the teams that are supposed to be really great or really terrible. That applies here. The Dodgers could very well challenge the 2001 Mariners. They could also win 98 games and cruise in the NL West again.
Health will dictate the ceiling. Talent dictates the incredibly high floor. That’s not a good betting situation to me.
Slight Lean: Under 103.5
