Miami Marlins 2025 preview
One season removed from being the biggest overachiever in Major League Baseball, the Regression Monster sunk his teeth into the Miami Marlins. The Marlins actually made the playoffs in 2023 with an 84-78 record, even though they were outscored on the season by 57 runs. Their Pythagorean Win-Loss record of 75-87 made them the luckiest team in baseball in that metric, as they went a remarkable 33-14 in one-run games. The -57 run differential is the lowest by 15 runs (2005 Padres) for a team that made the playoffs.
For his efforts, manager Skip Schumaker was told that he wasn’t getting a contract extension and that the team was going to part ways with him at the end of the season. So, the Marlins played under that cloud, among others, and lost 100 games for the fourth time in franchise history. This is a Miami team with one winning season – that 2023 campaign – since 2009 in a full 162-game season.
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Schumaker found greener pastures this offseason with a front office gig for the Texas Rangers. In his place, the Marlins hired Clayton McCullough, who has spent the last decade with the Dodgers organization. This is a tough job to have, as front office dysfunction and ownership meddling have caused the on-field product to suffer, as well as a low payroll and some bad luck on the injury front.
I would sugarcoat it if I could, but there isn’t much to sugarcoat, including the departure of Kim Ng, who was the general manager of the Marlins from 2021-23. Ng declined her part of a mutual option at the end of the 2023 season after a discussion on restructuring the Baseball Operations department displayed a difference of opinion between her and ownership.
As the odds show, expectations are remarkably low this season for the Marlins. They’re locked in a really good NL East Division and several trades have picked this roster apart in recent seasons. The Marlins are projected to have easily the lowest payroll in baseball this season at around $67 million and their win total is lined substantially lower than that.
2025 Miami Marlins Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 23)
World Series: +50000
NL Pennant: +25000
NL East: +25000
Win Total: 63.5 (+100/-120)
Make Playoffs: Yes +2000 / No -10000
Miami Marlins Preview: Offense
As of early February, the Marlins had spent zero guaranteed dollars on Major League free agents until they signed Cal Quantrill on Feb. 12 for one year at $3.5 million. They only signed six free agents total as an organization, including journeyman catcher Rob Brantly, who turns 36 in July and has played 12 MLB games since 2017. They also signed former highly-touted prospect Albert Almora Jr., who hasn’t played an MLB game since 2022.
The Marlins finished 26th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+ last season, but it is likely that they will fail to finish that highly this season. Last year’s team had Jake Burger, Bryan De La Cruz, Josh Bell, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Luis Arraez for a while. The first four were among the top six in plate appearances and they are all elsewhere now. Arraez hit .299 over 33 games before getting traded to the Padres.
However, Xavier Edwards led the team in wRC+ at 128 and he’s back again, though a .398 BABIP really fueled his offensive performance. His .359 wOBA came with a .296 xwOBA. He did steal 31 bases in just 70 games, so he has the chance to overperform his expected metrics by creating doubles out of singles or beating out grounders, but still. Jonah Bride, who was second in wRC+ at 123, had a .351 wOBA with a .297 xwOBA, so he, too, looks to be in line for some negative regression. He also doesn’t have the speed of Edwards to leg out some hits.
Years of trades will be evaluated this season. Edwards, Connor Norby, Griffin Conine, and Kyle Stowers are all going to get a lot of playing time, so the Marlins will get to find out if those guys are legitimate big leaguers or not. Norby posted a 101 wRC+ in 194 PA and Stowers had a 67 wRC+ in 209 PA after being traded from the Orioles in the Trevor Rogers deal. Conine has actually been in the org since 2020 from the Jonathan Villar deal with the Blue Jays, but made his debut last season.
There are not a lot of high projections for this offense. Unless some of the kids develop some power, the Marlins are likely to rank last in baseball in home runs and they’ll be right there in the running with the White Sox for the fewest runs scored. Maybe Deyvison De Los Santos comes up and shines to help in the power department, but there’s only so much he can do.
Miami Marlins Preview: Pitching
At least this part of the ballclub looks a lot more promising. Sandy Alcantara is back at the top of the rotation after missing the entire 2024 season. It is hard to know exactly what he’ll look like coming back, but he was extremely durable up until late in the 2023 season, as he threw 197.1 innings in 2019, 205.2 in 2021, and 228.2 in 2022. He threw six complete games that season and you have to wonder if the heavy workload and the elbow pain that eventually shut him down led to the 4.14 ERA with a 4.33 xERA and 4.03 FIP he had during that ‘23 season.
So many pitchers have had Tommy John and some have come back and been pretty much just as good as they were, while others have struggled to find it and get back on track. Assuming he makes it through Spring Training healthy, Alcantara will be the Opening Day starter and it was announced about two months in advance of the start of the season.
Trades and injuries have made the rest of the rotation look a bit different. Braxton Garrett and Eury Perez both had to undergo Tommy John, with Garrett out for the year and Perez back sometime during the summer. That makes this a really big season for Max Meyer, who experienced shoulder problems late last season. Meyer made 11 starts over 57 innings at the MLB level and had a 5.68 ERA with a 4.74 xERA and a 5.90 FIP. He struggled badly with his command, giving up 14 HR and a ton of loud contact.
Edward Cabrera, who also missed time last season, finished with a 4.95 ERA, 4.78 xERA, and a 4.68 FIP. He’s a very hard guy to handicap, given that nearly 38% of his plate appearances ended with a walk or a strikeout, but he also gave up 15 home runs. Cabrera’s poor LOB% (66.4%) and 3.94 xFIP have the projection systems bullish on improved numbers. He’s just so inconsistent from pitch to pitch and the injury risk is pretty high.
Hard-throwing southpaw Ryan Weathers better optimized his arsenal last season, relying heavier on his sweeper/changeup mix than he had in the past. His fastball is a bad pitch, but he had a league-average sinker to go with a plus changeup. It feels like he’s been around forever, but he’s only 25 and has roughly 1.25 seasons worth of innings to his name. He added more swing and miss last season. I think he’s the true breakout candidate of this rotation.
Quantrill is a decent addition for a team looking to eat innings. He had a few nice seasons in Cleveland in 2021 and 2022 before bottoming out in 2023 and then pitching for the Rockies in 2024. He gets a big park factor upgrade now and could be a viable arm with a career 4.07 ERA and 4.46 FIP.
We’ll see how the bullpen turns out. Tanner Scott was the top arm in this pen last year, but he’s gone. Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi, and Declan Cronin were all hurt by poor LOB% marks and had FIPs at least a run lower than their ERAs. This could be a low-key strong relief corps, but I don’t know how many leads they’ll have to protect.
Miami Marlins Player to Watch
SP Ryan Weathers
I really want to dig into Weathers more. He inexplicably struggled at Marlins Park, allowing a .288/.348/.518 slash with a .368 wOBA over 33.2 innings compared to a .198/.270/.297 and a .256 wOBA in 53 road innings. Unfortunately, Weathers dealt with injuries and only threw 15.2 innings after the All-Star Break. Health is an ongoing concern with him, but after he harnessed his new-look arsenal with a 26/15 K/BB ratio in March/April, he had a 27/5 K/BB ratio in May and then a 14/0 in June over 8.1 innings before getting hurt.
Opposing batters only hit .193 with a .367 SLG on his changeup last season, a pitch that had a 10% bump in Whiff% year-over-year and a much higher spin rate. His sweeper generated a 51% Whiff% with a .118 BA and a .176 SLG against. But, hitters tattooed his fastball, batting .319 with a .451 SLG. He did have a velo uptick that is somewhat promising, but I think he needs to be like a 60% SW/CH guy as opposed to the 47.3% we saw last season. Or, I’d definitely swap the fastball for more sinkers. His fastball velo plays down because of his 6th percentile Extension, though he was in the 63rd percentile in FB spin rate after being well below average in 2021 and in the 42nd percentile in 2022.
I think Weathers is building towards a breakout, but he’ll need to stay healthy to get there.
Miami Marlins Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I don’t typically get involved with extreme win totals on the high end or low end. A good team will be good. A bad team will be bad. I’d rather look to attack teams with a wider range of outcomes. The degree of “bad” that the Marlins wind up being this season is hard to pinpoint. This is a very bad lineup. The rotation could be pretty interesting, especially if Alcantara returns in good form. And I think the bullpen could be quite good.
The Marlins don’t have as much trade currency this season. Everybody, with the exception of Alcantara, is either arbitration-eligible or pre-arbitration. The only guaranteed money on the books for 2027 and 2028 is the $10 million that the Marlins are paying the Yankees for Giancarlo Stanton. So, I don’t think we get a big sell-off like we saw last year. Any relief arms that break out could get traded as the Marlins look to capitalize on their value. That’s really about it unless Alcantara gets moved at the Trade Deadline.
But, this team will lose a lot of games and avoiding 100 losses may be a challenge.
Lean: Under 63.5
