Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction:
The Minnesota Twins wrap up their series in Tampa Bay against the Rays on Thursday looking to chip away at the Cleveland Guardians division lead and continue the Rays struggles at the plate.
The Rays entered Wednesday 28th in the league in both runs and home runs per game, averaging only 3.75 runs per game at home, with the scoring dropping just a hair to 3.7 runs per game overall since the All-Star Break.
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The Twins give Pablo Lopez the start at pitcher on Thursday to try to keep that offense down. Lopez has a 4.05 ERA this season, but that is not indicative of how he is currently pitching.
In Lopez’s last three starts, he’s pitched a scoreless 20 2/3 and even with this great run, might be do in for even more positive regression with a 3.68 fielding independent and 9.5 strikeouts with 1.9 walks registered per nine innings.
The Twins offense backs him up by averaging nearly 4.8 runs per game, which is seventh in the league. However, they are without two key bats, with Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton on the injured list. There is a chance Buxton gets activated for Thursday’s game.
Rays starting pitcher Taj Bradley will look to use those losses to his advantage. He has allowed at least three runs in six straight starts, posting a 4.35 ERA overall this season, but has been better at home with a 3.92 ERA in Tampa Bay compared to a 4.86 ERA on the road.
The Rays’ bullpen leads the league in ERA since July 1 with a 2.93 ERA, while the Twins’ 4.46 bullpen ERA in this span is 22nd.
With Lopez’s recent dominance coupled with the lack of hitting from the Rays at home this season, Thursday’s game sets up to be a game dominated by great pitching.
MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Under 7.5 Runs
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