Back in the “old days’ when I used to commandeer the ship known as the VSiN Point Spread Weekly, we used to publish a weekly MLB Team Report for subscribers. We would give weekly updates for every team on their performance levels in a variety of situations. As an editor, and as a baseball bettor, I feel like it helped me keep on top of the important team tendencies that any handicapper should be well aware of. 

When you look at as much data as I do on a daily basis, it can and does get lost in the shuffle sometimes. While some of this information can still be found on the data pages of VSiN.com, I find myself not using it as much as I probably should. With that in mind, as we head towards August with another huge slate of games on tap for this weekend, I figured it would be a great time to peruse the old VSiN MLB Team Report and share some of the most interesting findings, specifically where teams level of performance vary greatly in certain situations.

 

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Here are some of the top discrepancies in team performance in a variety of situations, as shown in the report. They are grouped by divisions:

BALTIMORE is 48-25 (+12.35 units) versus AL teams in 2024 but 13-16 (-9.84 units) in Interleague play
Steve’s thoughts: This is obviously a major spread in ROI for bettors in backing the O’s against AL and NL foes. The success against the division and other American League teams is a major reason why Baltimore continues to pace the AL East Division.
Upcoming 2024 spots: The Orioles are hosting an NL team this weekend in San Diego and will then play their next 14 games versus AL foes

BOSTON is 41-29 (+8.82 units) versus RH starters but 13-18 (-8.22 units) versus lefties
Steve’s thoughts: The difference in run production in these two trends for the Red Sox is 5.0 to 4.2, so this isn’t a fluke. Boston simply hits righthanded pitching better. With two of the lineup’s most productive hitters (Duran and Devers) being lefty bats, it’s not all that surprising.
Upcoming 2024 spots: Perhaps recognizing the unique trend of the Red Sox this season, New York has opted for two lefthanded starters for this weekend’s big rivalry series. Nestor Cortes goes on Friday night, and Carlos Rodon starts on Sunday.

NEW YORK is 49-29 (+10.24 units) versus RH starters but 11-15 (-13.26 units) versus lefties
Steve’s thoughts: This is the exact same pattern as the Red Sox showed just above. Fortunately for the Yankees, the distribution of games in each situation has proven far more beneficial than that of Boston. New York has faced righties in 75% of its games, as compared to 69.3%. Perhaps this is a major reason why the Yankees lead their rivals by 4.5 games in the standings heading into the big series this weekend.
Upcoming 2024 spots: Not following the seemingly pre-planned strategy of the Yankees to exploit Boston’s weak spot, the Red Sox have scheduled three righthanded starters to face New York this weekend. At this point, it looks to be advantage Bronx Bombers at home this weekend.

TAMPA BAY is 35-42 (-15.23 units) versus AL teams in 2024 but 17-9 (+6.9 units) in Interleague play
Steve’s thoughts: The 2024 season has been a major disappointment for Tampa Bay, so much so that the franchise elected to trade one of its most recognizable stars yesterday in Randy Arozarena. The Rays’ performance versus fellow AL competitors this year pales in comparison to recent seasons.
Upcoming 2024 spots: The Rays have a chance to go on a little run here as July ends, assuming patterns hold, as eight of the next 11 games are against NL foes, starting this weekend with a home series versus Cincinnati.

TORONTO is 24-23 (-0.33 units) in day games but 22-33 (-17.77 units) at night
Steve’s thoughts: I often find these types of trends difficult to explain, but the results speak for themselves. Toronto has simply been better in the day than at night. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, the number of night games always outnumbers the day games for any given team in a season.
Upcoming 2024 spots: After a Friday night home game, Toronto will play three straight days, two versus Texas and one versus the Orioles.

CLEVELAND is 40-33 (+0.3 units) versus RH starters but 21-8 (+11.34 units) versus lefties

Steve’s thoughts: The units variation in these two situations isn’t as drastic as some of the results I’ve shown thus far, but the ROI certainly is. Against RH starters, the ROI is +0.4%, while versus lefties, the ROI is a whopping 39.1%. In other words, look for opportunities to take advantage when the Guardians face southpaws.
Upcoming 2024 spots: In a big weekend series in Philadelphia, the Phillies have actually scheduled lefthanded starters for both Friday and Sunday. Could prove to be advantageous for the AL Central-leading Guardians.

KANSAS CITY is 35-20 (+13.27 units) at home but 21-27 (-7.26 units) on the road
Steve’s thoughts: This is probably a more well-known trend than any of the other ones I’ve detailed so far, as it can easily be found on any mainstream media MLB Standings page, minus the betting units, of course. The Royals are actually 4-2 in their last six road games, so perhaps things are starting to stabilize. Note the run production difference from home to road for KC: 5.2 to 3.9.
Upcoming 2024 spots: The Royals host a weekend series versus the Cubs, then hit the road for seven straight games afterward.

MINNESOTA is 30-18 (+7.2 units) in day games but 26-27 (-8.32 units) at night
Steve’s thoughts: Minnesota has put up 5.2 RPG in day games as compared to 4.5 at night. The Twins have also allowed only 4.0 RPG as compared to 4.7 at night, so they are getting better production on both offense and defense in day games.
Upcoming 2024 spots: Of their next 12 games, one of every three only will be a day game. Minnesota will need to turn this nighttime trend around to make a playoff push.

LA ANGELS are 12-22 (-7.67 units) in day games but 33-36 (+4.48 units) at night
Steve’s thoughts: Had the Angels been playing night games all season long, they would still be in the playoff picture. The offensive run production difference in these situations is startling, 4.3 at night compared to 3.4 in the day. In fact, in days games in 2024, LA is being outscored 5.1-3.4. Downright ugly.
Upcoming 2024 spots: With Mike Trout having experienced a setback this week in his potential return from a knee injury, the timing couldn’t be worse, as the Angels could have gone on a bit of a run here, with eight of the next nine games being night contests.

OAKLAND is 31-52 (-11.64 units) versus RH starters but 11-11 (+5.36 units) versus lefties
Steve’s thoughts: Note to upcoming managers getting ready to face Oakland…push back any left-handed starters you had scheduled. The Athletics are a very competent team when facing lefties, producing over five units of profits for bettors and 5.1 RPG. This beats the righty production by 1.2 RPG.
Upcoming 2024 spots: At this point, according to ESPN’s scheduled upcoming starters, four of the A’s next seven games are scheduled to be against lefthanded starters, including Saturday versus Tyler Anderson and the Angels.

ATLANTA is 35-35 (-19.72 units) versus RH starters but 19-12 (+0.1 units) versus lefties
Steve’s thoughts: The difference in run production in these two trends for the Braves is 4.7 to 4.0. This is a major reason why Atlanta has been one of the most disappointing teams in the league for bettors this season. Even without Acuna in the lineup, for Atlanta to be putting up just 4.0 RPG versus RH starters is alarming.
Upcoming 2024 spots: On cue, the Mets have opted for RH starters in their first three games of a big weekend series with Atlanta. Game 1 on Thursday was a winner; we’ll see what Friday/Saturday has in store before New York goes with southpaw David Peterson on Sunday.

MIAMI is 30-37 (+1.22 units) versus RH starters but 7-29 (-22.13 units) versus lefties
Steve’s thoughts: This is the league’s worst record versus left-handed starters by far this season and a lot of credit goes to my son A.J. for regularly pointing this key trend out daily on our MLB Analytics Report. The ROI on this abysmal trend is -61.4%, an almost unheard-of figure for any simple angle this deep into a season. Miami scores just 2.8 RPG off of lefties.
Upcoming 2024 spots: Apparently, the Brewers, Rays, and Braves have not been following the trends very closely, as the Marlins’ next seven games show ZERO scheduled lefty starters they’ll be facing.

NY METS are 20-25 (-8.75 units) in day games but 34-23 (+10.82 units) at night
Steve’s thoughts: This almost 20-game spread in betting units produced is right now the difference in the Mets being a playoff lock at this point as compared to a team in the hunt for a wildcard spot. New York has raked at night, putting up 5.1 runs per game, 0.5 better than in the day. Ironically, the pitching has also been 0.5 runs per game better. Simply, the Mets have been a better team under the lights.
Upcoming 2024 spots: The Mets play Saturday/Sunday daytime games versus the Braves before resuming a fairly regular 2-night, 1-day game routine.

PHILADELPHIA is 37-15 (+10.07 units) at home but 26-22 (-3.85 units) on the road

Steve’s thoughts: The Phillies have been a pretty good team on the road in 2024, four games over .500. However, it is almost inarguable at this point that Philadelphia is the toughest place to play in MLB for opposing teams. The Phils are crushing teams by an average score of 5.4-3.7 at home this season and look destined to wrap up home-field advantage in the NL playoffs down the stretch.
Upcoming 2024 spots: Philadelphia’s next six games are at home versus the Guardians and Yankees before a 10-game road swing.

CHICAGO CUBS are 34-47 (-11.75 units) versus NL teams in 2024 but 15-8 (+7.99 units) in Interleague play
Steve’s thoughts: The Cubs and new Manager Craig Counsell have been one of the most disappointing teams in MLB this season. The struggles versus NL foes are detailed in this trend. Part of this is an abysmal 13-23 mark versus divisional rivals. This is no way to compete for a postseason spot.
Upcoming 2024 spots: The Cubs begin a stretch of playing 11 interleague games out of their next 18 this weekend at Kansas City. Could this stretch of games ignite a run?

CINCINNATI is 18-26 (-10.87 units) in day games but 31-27 (+5.03 units) at night
Steve’s thoughts: Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed the same number of runs in day games and night games this season, 4.1. This trend obviously falls on the offense, as the difference in run production there is 4.7 to 4.2. If you picked up on an interesting tidbit that the Reds are outscoring opponents 4.5 to 4.1 but are still four games under .500, you’re correct. This team has potential, and it seems to come out a lot more under the lights.
Upcoming 2024 spots: After playing two daytime games this weekend at Tampa Bay, the Reds will play 11 of their next 12 games at night. Perhaps this is a point where Manager David Bell’s team can kickstart their season.

MILWAUKEE is 33-29 (-1.48 units) versus NL teams in 2024 but 26-14 (+13.07 units) in Interleague play
Steve’s thoughts: Like the rival Cubs, the Brewers have also fared very well in interleague play, owning the most wins in the entire league. Leading the NL Central from the beginning essentially in 2024, this trend doesn’t figure to aid the Brewers in the playoffs, but it has put them in a position to make it there.
Upcoming 2024 spots: The Brewers have only two interleague series’ remaining for ’24, both in August, hosting Cleveland and at Oakland. Could this dim Milwaukee’s chances of holding on to the NL Central lead the rest of the way?

ARIZONA is 38-29 (+9.62 units) versus RH starters but 15-21 (-11 units) versus lefties
Steve’s thoughts: This is a huge units/ROI spread but a very strange pair of trends nonetheless. Why? Well, Arizona is scoring the exact same amount of runs on both angles, 4.9. Additionally, they also allow 0.2 RPG more in games vs. RH starters. I am pointing this trend out for readers but not getting behind it personally yet.
Upcoming 2024 spots: Pittsburgh throws two righties and a lefty in this weekend’s series at Arizona.

COLORADO is 24-27 (+5.02 units) at home but 14-36 (-10.5 units) on the road
Steve’s thoughts: This is a seemingly reoccurring trend every season in MLB. The Rockies are competitive at home but awful on the road. The common misconception is that the Rockies’ pitching suffers greatly in the extreme hitting elements of Coors Field, but this year’s truth shows that Colorado is allowing 6.0 RPG on the road as compared to 5.5 RPG at home.
Upcoming 2024 spots: Colorado begins a 10-game road swing in San Francisco this weekend, and that set includes a Saturday doubleheader. The Rockies are 27 games under .500 now. Odds are they’ll be at least 30 under following the trip.

LA DODGERS are 36-31 (-15.38 units) versus RH starters but 26-11 (+3.12 units) versus lefties
Steve’s thoughts: This is another strange one in that the Dodgers outscore their opponents 5.0-4.2 in games versus RH starters and 4.9-3.8 in games vs. LH starters. In other words, they score fewer runs versus lefties but are more successful. Tough to explain such an ROI discrepancy.
Upcoming 2024 spots: According to ESPN’s schedule, the Dodgers are only expected to face one left-handed starter in the next nine games, that being Framber Valdez on Friday night in Houston.

SAN DIEGO is 26-27 (-11.47 units) at home but 28-22 (+6.78 units) on the road
Steve’s thoughts: Simply put, San Diego has gotten way better production from its pitching staff away from home in 2024. On the road they have allowed 3.5 RPG, compared to 4.9 RPG at home. I always feel that bettors are forced to pay a premium for the Padres at home as well.
Upcoming 2024 spots: The Padres continue a nine-game road swing with a weekend series in Baltimore before returning home for five contests.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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