MLB Best Bets
Another glorious Saturday awaits us with wall-to-wall games from 1:05 p.m. to 8:40 p.m. ET. We have 16 games on the MLB slate, including a doubleheader between the Marlins and the Cubs, giving us plenty of options for MLB best bets and props.
Below are three of my MLB best bets for Saturday, April 20, but be sure to price shop for the best odds available at the time of viewing.
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My name is Matt Williams, and I am going to be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams.
Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies
6:06 pm ET
The Chicago White Sox will send Mike Soroka to the mound on Saturday against Phillies All-Star right-hander Zack Wheeler.
To say this matchup is lopsided would be an understatement.
Wheeler boasts a 2.53 FIP this season with a 30% strikeout rate and 25% K-BB rate. The 33-year-old is in the 95th percentile on whiff percentage and should dominate a White Sox lineup carrying a mere 75 wRC+ this season versus righties.
Meanwhile, Soroka has been brutal this season, ranking toward the bottom of the league in expected ERA, whiff rate, and chase rate. In addition, the right-hander has a 13.5% walk rate and a 1.76 WHIP.
The Phillies are a strong enough favorite where F5 lines are a bit too juiced for value, so we are going to invest in the full game run line in what should be a one-sided affair on Saturday.
As a bonus bet for this matchup, I would pay up for Wheeler’s Under 1.5 walks prop. The price may seem steep, but in my opinion, this line should be much closer to -200, making it very playable.
The White Sox have an 8.8% walk rate as a team versus RHP, and Wheeler boasts 5% walk rate after posting a the same mark in 2023.
MLB Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (-130)
MLB Best Bet: Zack Wheeler u1.5 BB (-150)
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
7:10 pm ET
The Baltimore Orioles are a fantastic team that deserves respect. However, the Kansas City Royals have been playing great baseball to open the 2024 season and are often undervalued.
Corbin Burnes takes the hill for Baltimore on Saturday after starting the year 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA. Yet, he is statistically the second best pitcher in this matchup, with Royals ace Cole Ragans on the other side.
After a stellar debut in 2023, Ragans entered the year with Cy Young hype from baseball experts and sports media. So far, the 26-year-old hasn’t disappointed with a 33.3% whiff rate, 29.6% strikeout rate, and a 3.3% barrel rate against.
This is bad news for Baltimore, who have struggled at times against southpaws this season, despite their dominance against righties.
On April 3, Ragans held the Orioles to zero runs and one hit over 6 â…“ innings with seven strikeouts, outdueling Corbin Burnes.
So, at plus-money, there is no reason to shy away from the Royals F5 moneyline on Saturday.
MLB Best Bet: Royals F5 ML (+114)
Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates
4:05 pm ET
This is a simple value play with Kutter Crawford taking the hill for the Red Sox on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Crawford has posted a solid 28.9% strikeout rate this season, hitting Over 5.5 punch outs in each of his last two starts. One of those outings was against the Cleveland Guardians, who are notoriously difficult to strike out.
The right-hander will be tasked with taking on a Pirates lineup that holds a 22.9% strikeout rate versus righties and struggles mightily against sliders, which Kutter throws almost 30% of the time.
Boston is a bit banged up as well, missing both Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock due to injury. So it stands to reason that Crawford may have a slightly longer leash than normal.
Bet the Over on Kutter Crawford’s strikeout prop on Saturday in what adds up to a nice value in a solid environment.
MLB Best Bet: Kutter Crawford o5.5 K (-102)
