MLB Best Bets and Props:
Welcome back to weekend baseball. There are 15 games on the MLB schedule, with the first pitch scheduled at 2:00 PM ET between the Colorado Rockies and the New York Yankees. We have plenty of options for MLB props and best bets, but below are two of my favorite betting lines to target on Saturday, August 24th.
My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams.
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Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
4:05 pm ET
Framber Valdez has pitched at least six innings (18 Outs) in 11 of his last 15 outings. This has made his Over 17.5 Outs prop a near must-bet regardless of the opponent with playable odds.
Guess what? We can get Over 17.5 Outs today at playable odds.
Unfortunately, Valdez’s opponent is the Baltimore Orioles, which certainly explains why the line is 17.5 instead of 18.5. However, the Astros ace has gone at least 21 outs in his previous two starts against the Orioles.
As I write this article, the current best available odds are -130, but I would play Over 17.5 Outs all the way to -160. If you happen to need a juice reducer later in the day, I suggest pairing it with something like Carson Palmer: No Win (Today’s Angels starter).
In addition, I also love the value for Framber’s strikeout prop today which is set at Over 5.5.
Valdez is over this mark in six out of his last seven starts, striking out at least nine batters in five of those outings.
Baltimore carries a 23.6% K rate versus southpaws, which is perfectly fine given our Outs projection for Framber.
MLB Best Bet: Framber Valdez Over 5.5 K (-115)
MLB Best Bet: Framber Valdez Over 17.5 K (-130)
*Would take Over 5.5 K up to -130
*Would take Over 17.5 Outs up to -160
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
7:20 pm ET
This next prop is a value play.
Charlie Morton takes on the Washington Nationals on Saturday, one of the most difficult teams to strike out in the entire league.
Over the last 14 days, Washington carries a 17.7% K rate against right-handers (fourth-lowest in MLB) and an incredible 8.9% swinging strike rate (best in MLB).
Morton’s strikeout prop is currently set at 5.5, which the veteran is Over in three of his last four, but Under in five out of his last eight.
The bottom line is that Morton has a tough matchup and my projection has him hovering around the five strikeout mark. This makes his current odds at +118 a tremendous value.
Back the Under on Saturday.
MLB Best Bet: Charlie Morton Under 5.5 K (+118)
*Would take Under 5.5 K down up to +110
