MLB Best Bets and Props:
t’s the final day before the MLB All-Star break, so you need to be extra careful when checking lineups and monitoring player news. Almost every major league team plays during the afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled for 11:35 AM (ET) between the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles. Below are three of my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, July 14, but price shop for the best odds available.
My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays
1:40 pm ET
Ryan Pepiot gets the start for Tampa Bay on Sunday as they host the AL Central-leading Guardians.
Cleveland enters the game having seen the seventh-lowest pitches per plate appearance (3.82) with the fourth-highest swing rate in baseball.
This should allow Pepiot to work conservatively against a Cleveland lineup that carries the sixth-worst wRC+ in baseball versus righties (88) over the last two weeks.
The Rays right-hander has exceeded 15.5 Outs in 10 of his 14 outings this season and seven of his eight home starts. Meanwhile, the Guardians have allowed 11 of the previous 13 right-handed pitchers to surpass the 15.5 Outs mark.
MLB Best Bet: Ryan Pepiot o15.5 Outs (-115)
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros
2:10 pm ET
The Houston Astros are always a difficult matchup for strikeout props, regardless of the opposing pitcher. Sunday is now different with Max Scherzer on the mound.
Scherzer is Under 5.5 strikeouts in eight of his last nine outings, averaging 3.3 punchouts during that stretch.
On the other side, Houston boasts a mere 17.5% K rate against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days with an 11.2% swinging strike rate.
Only four of the last 10 right-handed starters have gone Over 5.5 strikeouts versus the Astros, who are batting .278 with a .342 on-base percentage and .335 wOBA against them over the past month.
The bottom line is that Scherzer has not been cooking with gas this season, posting a mere 19.1% strikeouts rate and 23.3% whiff rate so far, and the Astros are unlikely to do him any favors.
This looks like a good spot to chase the Under.
MLB Best Bet: Max Scherzer Under 5.5 K (-130)
Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants
4:05 pm ET
Blake Snell has been brutal this season. The veteran southpaw has posted a 7.85 ERA and 12.4% walk rate over 28 ⅔ innings with a 1.74 WHIP.
Of course, those numbers come from a relatively small sample size. However, for anyone who has watched Snell take the hill this season, the posted results seem more realistic than his 4.49 FIP (which is still awful).
The bad news (wait…that wasn’t the bad news?) is that the 31-year-old is now tasked with taking on a red-hot Twins lineup that has produced a ridiculous .960 OPS against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days with a 15.4% strikeout rate.
Snell’s earned run line is listed at just 1.5 on Sunday. This is confusing, considering he has already gone over that total in six of his seven outings this year.
Honestly, this line screams “too good to be true,” which is usually a bad thing. That said, I can’t see a reason not to take it. So…we ride!
MLB Best Bet: Blake Snell Over 1.5 ER (-120)
