MLB Best Bets for Thursday, May 30th
Welcome to my semi-weekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
Top MLB Resources:
Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
MLB Best Bets
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
Spencer Arrighetti vs Logan Gilbert
It’s been a while since I’ve tried to back Spencer Arrighetti, but it’s time to give it one more shot.
Arrighetti could be considered one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. In eight starts Arrighetti has been nailed and he owns a 6.93 ERA coming into this start against Seattle. But, his underlying metrics still paint the picture of a pitcher with some solid stuff, and that is hard to pass up against this lineup.
Despite the bloated ERA, Arrighetti has a 3.90 FIP in 37.2 innings of work this season. His swing-and-miss numbers are not as dominant as they once were, but he still has above average stuff. Arrighetti ranks in the 62nd percentile in whiff rate (26.7%) and the 65th percentile in strikeout rate (24.3%).
I trust that Arrighetti’s ability to generate swings is going to work against the Mariners.
Seattle leads the majors by a good amount in strikeout rate (28.2%). It is 23rd in wRC+ on the season (95). The Mariners might be on the verge of sweeping the Astros tonight, but they are about to do so despite batting .187 in the three games with a 32.4% strikeout rate.
Houston has not fared much better at the plate in this series, but the Astros are the better overall offensive team by a mile. Throw in Arrighetti’s underlying metrics, and I believe the probability that Houston exits the first five frames with a lead is higher than the market does.
Play: Astros F5 ML (+120)
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Rodon vs Patrick Sandoval
Carlos Rodon owns a 2.95 ERA for the season, but his 4.49 xERA and 4.41 FIP would indicate he has been getting away with subpar play.
Hard contact has been the issue for Rodon. He comes into this start ranking the 18th percentile in both barrel rate (9.7%) and hard-hit rate (44.0%). His average exit velocity (91.3) ranks in the seventh percentile among pitchers. There is only so long a pitcher can get away with giving up hard-hit balls the way Rendon is, and the Angels might be the team to make him pay.
Los Angeles is not good at much, but they do hit lefties well. The Angels are fifth in wRC+ (119) against left-handed pitchers this season and fourth in wOBA (.338). That is also reflected in their record, as they are 8-3 in 11 games against a left-handed starter and a bettor would be up 8.6 units had they bet Los Angeles in each contest.
The Halos will also send out Patrick Sandoval tonight.
Sandoval is the antithesis of Rodon in a way. The lefty has a 5.60 ERA in 11 starts this season, but his xERA (4.00) and FIP (3.90) show some regression could be in store.
Unlike Rodon, Sandoval is great at limiting hard contact. He ranks in 71st percentile in barrel rate (6.1%) and the 58th percentile in hard-hit rate (37.2%). Sandoval also generates a high rate of groundballs (47.6%). If he sticks to his profile we could see a ton of soft grounders swatted around by the Yankees tonight.
For me, this too is about the price. Sandoval is pitching better than his ERA would indicate. Sandoval is not. The Angels hit well against left-handed hitting. The probability of Los Angeles coming out of the first five innings – and the game for that matter – is higher than the current market price would indicate by my measure.
Play: Angels F5 ML (+145)Â
