MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, May 21st
Welcome to my semi-weekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
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Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
MLB Best Bets
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Garrett Crochet vs Yusei Kikuchi
If you want to see one of the most beautiful Baseball Savant profiles in the majors just search Garrett Crochet.
The White Sox lefty sports a 4.18 ERA, but some minor digging under the hood reveals a profile any pitcher in the majors would take.
Crochet is a strikeout machine. He’s mowed down 33.7% of opposing hitters in 51.2 innings this season. He ranks in the 77th percentile in whiff rate (29.5%) and gets batters to chase 30.1% of the time. Those dominant swing-and-miss numbers are paired with an elite walk rate that ranks in the 79th percentile of pitchers (5.8%).
Hitters cannot generate hard contact against him even when he does allow a batted ball. Only 36.3% of batted balls allowed by Crochet are considered hard-hit, and his 4.8% barrel rate allowed ranks in the 79th percentile.
This is all terrible news for Toronto which has been struggling at the plate.
The Blue Jays come into this contest ranked 21st in wRC+ (96) and 19th in wOBA (.302). They are as productive against left-handed pitching, ranking 18th in both wRC+ (99) and wOBA (.305). Four of Toronto’s top five hitters in terms of plate appearances are hitting .230 or worse to this point.
Crochet should be able to keep up his outstanding production against the Blue Jays, but will Chicago be able to give him the run support he needs to grab the win? The White Sox are the worst lineup in baseball by a wide margin, and they face Yusei Kikuchi tonight.
Kikuchi enters this contest with a 2.60 ERA and a 2.61 FIP. He has walked just 4.8% of opposing hitters and struck out 26.3%. That does not bode well for a team that strikes out on 22.9% of at bats and walks at the second-lowest rate in the league (6.9%).
It leads me to the under in the first five frames tonight. Crochet is legitimately good, and his metrics should translate in this match up. Kikuchi has been fantastic and gets to face the worst lineup in baseball. Even at such a small number, I believe there is value on the under for this total.
Play: UNDER 3.5 F5 (-110)
