MLB Best Bets Today April 9
It’s a light day on the diamond with just six games, though three of them are early starts to give you that afternoon distraction from work. We start at 12:10 p.m. ET with the conclusion of Reds vs. Marlins, followed by 1:35 p.m. ET in the Bronx with A’s/Yankees and then 1:40 p.m. ET with Tigers/Twins.
For my purposes, though, in the interest of lead time, it’s Diamondbacks/Mets, White Sox/Royals, and Rockies/Padres, as the early starts make it really tough to properly handicap and get all my thoughts out to the readers.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are available to everybody now, but will soon be for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 9:
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets (-168, 7)
7:10 p.m. ET
It’ll be another chilly day at Citi Field with a bit of a helping breeze to left field as the Diamondbacks and Mets play the rubber match of their three-game set. It will be Eduardo Rodriguez for the Snakes and Nolan McLean for the Metropolitans, hence the hefty line for this one.
Rodriguez has opened some eyes this season with two outstanding starts, one against the Dodgers and one against the Braves. He’s allowed just one unearned run on eight hits over 12 innings of work with an 8/3 K/BB ratio and just a 25.7% Hard Hit% with zero Barrels surrendered. The biggest change for E-Rod this season is pitch usage, as he’s thrown his changeup 34.9% of the time while dramatically scaling back his fastball usage. His changeup must have some new shape to it or something because he allowed a .304 BA and a .481 SLG on that pitch over 20.5% usage last season. It’s a pitch he almost exclusively uses against right-handed batters, who slashed .281/.351/.474 with a .355 wOBA in 543 PA last season. Perhaps it has to do with a bit of a raise to his arm angle, which has basically gone up slightly each of the last four seasons.
The early returns on this season’s changeup are strong with a .150 BA, .177 xBA, .150 SLG, and .226 xSLG. So far, Rodriguez is a 60% GB% guy, so he just looks like an entirely different pitcher…
That being said, I’m not buying it. His K% through two starts is just 17.4%. While he’s cut back the walks, increased his Chase Rate and GB%, Stuff+ still grades all five of his pitches as below average and three of them, including the changeup, well below average.
Moreover, this will be his first cold-weather start, where it’s a lot more difficult to get a feel for the baseball and it often feels slick, which is likely to hurt him with the changeup grip and how reliant he is on that pitch. His two starts have been in Los Angeles and at home in climate-controlled Chase Field. It’ll be in the mid-40s here. And, yes, I realize he pitched in Boston and Detroit previously, but with a different pitch mix.
Frankly, I’m just not buying that this is the new E-Rod. The Mets are slashing .229/.321/.406 against LHP so far in 109 PA with a 24.8% K% and an 11% BB%. Rodriguez still isn’t a swing-and-miss guy, as he had three strikeouts against the Braves over seven innings last time out. Even when he had five strikeouts against the Dodgers and went Over this number, he had a SwStr% around 6%, as they may have been caught off-guard by his new usage patterns. The Mets won’t be. And neither will any team going forward.
Along with the Under on E-Rod’s strikeout prop, I’m also looking at Mets Team Total Over 3.5. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.15 ERA with a 5.05 xERA, as they have the second-lowest K% among relief units in all of baseball. Right now they’re lucky to be running a .265 BABIP against, hence the ERA/xERA discrepancy. They’ve also allowed an 11.2% Barrel% as a group so far.
Two plays here for me.
Picks: Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-116); Mets Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-125)
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-186, 9)
7:40 p.m. ET
Let’s spice things up with a home run prop for tonight. This might be a good indicator of how the new OF dimensions at Kauffman Stadium will play out, as the wind will be blowing out and temps will be in the mid-70s around first pitch, with a little bit of humidity in the air due to some weather expected to move in overnight.
White Sox starter Anthony Kay has allowed four runs on six hits over nine innings of work. He’s given up two homers, both hit by righties, and has given up a 65.5% Pull%. While Kay has mostly done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, he’s still allowed a 10.3% Barrel% and a lot of high exit velo contact in the early going. Despite getting ahead in the count 67.5% of the time with first-pitch strikes, he only has a 6% SwStr%.
Royals 3B Maikel Garcia is 6-for-13 against lefties to start the year with two doubles and a dinger. Over 137 PA last season, he only hit three taters, but did slash .314/.404/.517 in that split. He’s a guy who rarely strikes out and he might have made some substantive improvements this season to add more power.
It’s early, so I’m not sure this will stick, but his average launch angle is up to 14.7 degrees and he’s got a 50% Hard Hit% with a 15.8% Barrel%. He’s had six Barrels in 38 batted ball events. He had 29 in 519 batted ball events last season for a 5.6% Barrel%. We may be seeing a hitter trying to tap into his power a little bit more.
Last season, Garcia had a 45.5% Pull% against lefties, so he does try to cheat to get out in front and drive the baseball. I’ll take a shot here on a Garcia blast at +590 on a day that looks good for the bats and good for the right-handed hitters on the Royals.
Pick: Maikel Garcia (KC) 1+ HR (+590)
