MLB Best Bets Today October 8

We will have a maximum of two playoff games from here on out, as all four series are in action on Wednesday and all four of them could be over. The Yankees were able to avoid a sweep last night and the Cubs and Phillies will hope to do the same. The Mariners are in position to play in the ALCS for the first time since 2001. In other words, we have a ton of drama today.

The chronological order for today is Mariners vs. Tigers, Brewers vs. Cubs, Blue Jays vs. Yankees, and then Phillies vs. Dodgers. That’s the order in which I’ll break ‘em all down.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for October 8:

Mariners at Tigers (-115, 8.5)

3:08 p.m. ET (FS1)

It has been a brutal season for Bryce Miller. The 27-year-old right-hander is arbitration-eligible for the first time after the season and he’s had his worst year in pro ball with a 5.68 ERA, 5.32 xERA, and a 5.17 FIP in his 18 starts across 90.1 innings of work. He missed about two and a half months due to injury and then had a 5.62 ERA with a 5.99 FIP in eight starts after returning. He gave up 12 homers and only struck out 35.

But, he gets the ball today with a chance to help Seattle into the ALCS and all will be forgotten if he does. He hasn’t pitched since September 28, so we are talking about an extended layoff for sure. Unlike most Mariners starters, he was actually better on the road than at home, but better is a relative term when you have a 5.80 ERA at home and a 5.56 ERA on the road with just a four-point difference in wOBA against.

The one thing Miller did do well was go through the lineup the first time, as he allowed a .214/.275/.407 slash with a .294 wOBA to 162 batters. He gave up seven homers, but only 16 runs total. So, Dan Wilson will hope to get through the lineup once and then decide where to go from there. It’s possible that Emerson Hancock will piggyback here, but there is also a travel day tomorrow if the series gets extended, so Wilson could rely on his bullpen. Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, and Eduard Bazardo have pitched in all three games of this series, and  Brash has thrown 64 pitches in his three appearances.

The best-case scenario is that Miller can navigate his way through 5+ innings here. We’ll see if he can, but it’s a spacious outfield and he could find success if he can keep the Tigers from pulling the ball. He allowed a 48.4% Hard Hit% with a 9.3% Barrel% and a 45% Pull%. That needs to change today. I’m guessing we see increased splitter/slider/curveball usage to try and limit hard contact and increase Whiff potential. He gave up 11 of his 17 homers on fastballs.

Casey Mize gets the ball for the Tigers here. He only lasted three innings against Cleveland in the Wild Card Round with a solo homer allowed and a couple of walks. AJ Hinch very aggressively managed Game 2 in that series, as he went to Tyler Holton in the fourth after a walk to Jose Ramirez. Holton induced a double play right away and got the team into the sixth.

Holton did not pitch yesterday, but the Mariners aren’t as inept against lefties as Cleveland is. With the blowout loss, none of the primary arms for the Tigers were called into action, so their bullpen is much fresher than Seattle’s, despite playing three extra playoff games. That does give Hinch the luxury of managing aggressively if Mize is in trouble.

Mize had a 3.87 ERA with a 3.70 xERA and a 3.89 FIP during the regular season. He also pitched better at home, where Comerica Park’s forgiving outfield dimensions came into play a bit. Mize did allow a .280/.322/.490 slash in the second half and also has reverse platoon splits, as righties hit him better than lefties with 13 of the 21 homers and a .455 SLG.

Seattle has out-homered Detroit 6-1 in this series. The Mariners pitching staff also has a higher K%, as the Tigers have been held to a .165/.246/.233 slash. Seattle has neutralized Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene, as they have 11 K over 24 combined at bats with three hits and one homer. Those two guys have to carry the Detroit offense from a power standpoint.

There is pressure on both teams here, with Tarik Skubal looming in Game 5. The Tigers need to extend the series. The Mariners don’t want to see Skubal again. I lean Seattle in this one, but this will be a very good live betting game with the chess match we are likely to see.

No bet, lean Mariners

Brewers at Cubs (-119, 6.5)

5:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)

The Brewers have been spectacular in this series so far. Manager Pat Murphy has pushed every right button and they’ve outscored Chicago 16-6. Now they are knocking on the door of their first NLCS appearance since 2018. 

I thought it would be Quinn Priester to follow Aaron Ashby in Game 2, but Nick Mears got the team out of the second inning without more damage and then Jacob Misiorowski came in with three outstanding innings. The Brewers bullpen threw 7.1 scoreless with two walks, 10 strikeouts, and just one hit allowed in that game. Meanwhile, the Cubs bullpen has not been up to the task.

So Priester gets the start here and I think this was a brilliant move by the Brewers. He’s a 56.1% GB%, so you don’t mind throwing him at Wrigley Field, even if the wind is blowing out. As it just so happens, the wind is blowing in on a great day for pitchers, as implied by the total of 6.5. Priester had a 3.32 ERA with a 3.62 xERA and a 4.01 FIP over his 157.1 innings. He’s not a huge strikeout guys, but a 10.2% SwStr% is good enough to get by and the Cubs have struck out 23 times in the first two games of this series.

So Priester, who has a strong walk rate, will keep the ball on the ground and that should help neutralize Chicago’s lone obvious advantage coming into this series, which is hitting the long ball. They hit three in Game 1, but they were all solo shots and Milwaukee was leading 9-1 when the other two were hit.

We’ll see if the Brewers find the same success against a right-handed starter that they did against Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. Taillon worked four innings against the Padres with just two hits allowed and four strikeouts. He finished the regular season in fine form, as he had a 3.68 ERA with a 3.89 xERA and a 4.66 FIP in 129.2 innings, but a 1.57 ERA over his final 34.1 innings with just two homers allowed. He allowed 22 in the first half over 95.1 innings.

Like Priester, Taillon isn’t a big strikeout guy. Unlike Priester, he allowed 24 homers, while the Brewers’ starter allowed 18 in nearly 30 more innings. I will be very interested to see Milwaukee’s lineup construction today. Facing Taillon is essentially like facing another lefty because righties posted a .492 SLG against him and a .328 wOBA compared to a .361 SLG and a .265 wOBA for lefties. Righties only had a 15.2% K% compared to a 22.5% K% for lefties.

All in all, the Brewers have just seemed way more prepared for this series than the Cubs. Milwaukee has jumped on both starters very early and they’ve gotten some excellent relief pitching. Nearly everybody in the pen was used on Monday, but outside of Ashby, who started, and Misiorowski, who pitched in bulk, nobody else threw more than 16 pitches. Yesterday’s off day has everybody in good shape and everybody had an appearance to knock out the rust.

I think the balance of this game swings a bit towards Milwaukee, so I’ll take them at the dog price. They seem really relaxed and the 2-0 lead allows them to be a little freer and a little easier than the Cubs in my opinion. Also, Chicago hasn’t been putting enough balls in play and they are unlikely to hit for much, if any, power here.

Pick: Brewers -101

Blue Jays at Yankees (-175, 8.5)

7:08 p.m. ET (FS1)

On the heels of one of the best playoff pitching performances we’ve ever seen, and not just from a rookie, Cam Schlittler has to go out there and keep his team’s playoff hopes alive once again. Schlittler was magnificent against the Red Sox with eight scoreless innings and 12 strikeouts with zero walks. He had 18 Whiffs and only surrendered five hard-hit balls while throwing 107 pitches.

After posting a 2.96 ERA with a 3.98 xERA and a 3.74 FIP in 73 innings of work during his MLB portion of the regular season, he carried over his elite stuff to the playoffs. This is an objectively more difficult start against a Blue Jays team that has scored 29 runs in this series. They don’t strike out much at all, so Schlittler’s going to have to work the edges and take the sting out of the bats as much as possible.

In terms of balls in play, his 40.2% Hard Hit% and 8.2% Barrel% weren’t bad by any means, as he only allowed eight homers. His worst start as a big leaguer did come against Toronto back on September 5 when he gave up four runs on five hits in 1.2 innings of work. That’s way too small of a sample size to be predictive and it was death by papercuts, as the Blue Jays had an average exit velo of just 84.9 mph, the second-lowest he allowed in any start during the regular season.

Schlittler averaged 98 mph with his four-seam during the regular season and 98.9 mph in his playoff start. I consider “premium” velocity to be 97 and up. The Blue Jays were fourth in SLG, first in BA, and first in wOBA against pitches of 97+ mph. Against Boston, Schlittler threw 75 fastballs/sinkers out of his 107 pitches. He got 11 Whiffs on the four-seam, but Toronto is a stronger contact lineup than Boston.

It is a Johnny Wholestaff Day for the Yankees. Rather than use Kevin Gausman on short rest, they’ll go with Louie Varland as the starter. Gausman only threw 75 pitches in Game 1. My guess is that we’re going to see Gausman in bulk relief today. He can start in the second and then only be asked to turn the top of the order over twice instead of three times. It makes a lot more sense to do that than put lefties like Eric Lauer or Justin Bruihl out there. Gausman can still provide length, but in a different capacity.

Obviously there is risk involved in that strategy, if that’s what the Blue Jays do. Gausman last pitched out of the bullpen in 2020. But, I think that using the 100-mph thrower in Varland at the start instead of having him on hand for a high-leverage appearance suggests to me that Gausman is a very possible candidate to relieve. Varland gave up the three-run homer to Aaron Judge yesterday, but it was on a pitch we’ve never seen hit out of the ballpark based on pitch velocity and location.

This would leave the Jays with rookie Trey Yesavage at home in Game 5 if need be. And based on how he pitched in Game 2, I think the Jays are very okay with that. Expect Gausman tonight. I like the Blue Jays anyway at this big of a price given how they hit high velo, but I’m also going to gamble on the strategy I think Schneider employs. We may see another reliever for the second, but my inkling is that Gausman is featured prominently tonight.

Pick: Blue Jays +143

Phillies at Dodgers (-187, 7.5)

9:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)

The Dodgers are heavy favorites to finish off this series in three games, as they send Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound for Game 3. The Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola as the starter in a piggyback situation with Ranger Suarez. The left-handed starters for Philadelphia are not why they are losing this series, as Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo have 11.2 innings with four runs allowed on seven hits and 13 strikeouts against three walks. The Dodgers have gotten to the Phillies bullpen for five runs.

Even with a piggyback situation of Nola first and Suarez second, which is what seems to be the plan, exposing Nola to left-handed hitters Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy in the first inning seems like a very risky endeavor to me. The Dodgers are also carrying a six-man bench, so they could use some matchup pinch hitters if they’d like. The silver lining is that Nola has historically been good the first time through the order and he’s very awful the third time through, so if he can go three innings or so and Suarez can go three or four, this has the chance to work. Nola’s outs prop is set at 8.5, so three innings might be the max.

Instead of Suarez, who had an objectively better season than Nola, the Phillies will send out the high-priced veteran right-hander to start. Suarez had a 3.20 ERA with a 3.15 xERA and a 3.21 FIP despite a late start to the season. He wasn’t super sharp in his final three starts, but he’s had ample time off now. If nothing else, he has way better contact management metrics than Nola and a much higher ground ball split.

But, it will be Nola with a 6.01 ERA, 4.25 xERA, and a 4.58 FIP in his 94.1 innings during the regular season. He, too, was hurt and missed time, but he had a 5.84 ERA with a 4.03 FIP and a 3.72 xFIP in eight starts after returning. He did have over a strikeout per inning, but we’ve seen the Dodgers hit some game-changing home runs this postseason and that’s why I don’t trust Nola here.

The reality is that the offense has to do something to help. That will be easier said than done against Yamamoto, who threw 6.2 shutout innings at home against the Reds in his fifth postseason start. He had a 2.49 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 2.94 FIP over 173.2 innings of work. He was actually better on the road than he was at home, but he was also stellar in the second half, holding opponents to a .165/.240/.230 slash. His splitter is a huge pitch in terms of neutralizing the platoon advantage, as lefties only hit .221 with four homers against him.

So far in this series, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have one hit in 14 at bats with two walks and eight strikeouts. The Phillies haven’t homered yet. The Dodgers have only hit one, but it was a very, very big one. Honestly, the Phillies have done a good job against the Dodgers lineup, holding them to a .194/.280/.284 slash. But, LA has just had the better relief work.

Tyler Glasnow is listed as the Game 4 starter right now, but I don’t think Roberts would shy away from using him if he had to. Emmet Sheehan has allowed runs in both postseason appearances, but he still has great stuff. There are lots of ways the Dodgers could take this, especially with Yamamoto likely to provide length.

I’ll take Dodgers 1st 5 -0.5 (-120) here, as Yamamoto is far better than Nola and I do think that the Dodgers will be able to have a lead before Suarez comes in.

Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-120)