MLB Best Bets Today October 6
The American League steps aside and now the National League has a day all to itself with a couple of primetime Game 2s. We’ll see the Cubs and Brewers late, which is a bit of a surprise to me with the Dodgers and Phillies as the other series. I guess it might have something to do with the travel, as those two teams play at 6:08 p.m. ET and then head out to LAX for Game 3 on Wednesday.
It is rare to see, but we have four left-handed starters across the four teams today. No weather concerns today, as they play in a dome in Milwaukee and it will be a bright, sunny, and very comfortable day in Philly.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 6:
Dodgers (-132, 7.5) at Phillies
6:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)
It feels like March Madness, as you’ll have to scroll through the guide to find what channel TBS or truTV is for the first of two NL playoff games today. Blake Snell and Jesus Luzardo are the southpaw starters in this one and the Dodgers can put the series in a vice grip with a win today. LA’s comeback against the Philly bullpen in Game 1 set the stage for the opportunity to sweep the two road games and head back to Dodger Stadium with Yoshinobu Yamamoto set for the Game 3 start.
Snell is a big-time playoff performer and we saw that on display again in Game 1 against the Reds, as he allowed two runs on four hits with nine strikeouts and just one walk in seven innings of work. He now has a 3.23 ERA with a 3.58 FIP in 55.2 innings in the playoffs throughout his career. He’s also super fresh because he only threw 61.1 innings in the regular season with a 2.35 ERA, 3.20 xERA, and a 2.70 FIP. He struck out 72 and walked 26, but he only allowed a .224 BA and just three home runs.
Snell only allowed five earned runs in 38.1 innings at Dodger Stadium, but did give up 11 earned runs in 23 innings on the road. We’re talking about small sample sizes for sure, so we’ll see what happens here today against a Phillies lineup that was fifth in wOBA at .325 for the season against lefties, third at home in wOBA against lefties at .339, 10th in wOBA against lefties at .328 in the second half, and sits second in wOBA over the last 30 days against them at .354.
Luzardo will make his fourth playoff start and fifth appearance. He’s allowed 10 runs on 20 hits out of 65 batters faced with a 16/4 K/BB ratio. Luzardo finished the regular season with a 3.92 ERA, 3.31 xERA, and a 2.90 FIP in 183.2 innings of work, setting a career-high in outs recorded. I would have expected the increased workload to be an issue late in the season, but it wasn’t. Luzardo was actually better in the second half than he was in the first half, with a 60-point drop in wOBA.
He gets the tough assignment of facing a Dodgers lineup that, like the Phillies, was very good against lefties throughout the course of the season. Cristopher Sanchez did shut down the Dodgers bats for five innings before leaking oil in the sixth thanks to a two-out walk that started a rally. Teoscar Hernandez then hit the big blow off of Matt Strahm when it looked like Andy Pages was able to tip him off on what pitch was coming because Strahm didn’t shield his grip in the glove from the second base runner.
Manager Dave Roberts did deploy both Tyler Glasnow and Roki Sasaki in Game 1. He’s got Emmet Sheehan in reserve for Game 2 today if he wants, or he can leave him as a Game 4 option, even though the off day structure of the series will give him plenty of options.
That being said, I don’t have a play today. I do feel like the line is a little bit high on the Dodgers, as Luzardo has had a good season and the Phillies have a strong lineup. I do think live betting the Dodgers in the middle innings in a tie game or if they are losing isn’t a bad idea because of the absurd collection of arms that they can throw out there.
No bet; look to live bet LA
Cubs at Brewers (-127, 7.5)
9:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)
We do have a lefty starter here for the Brewers, but it is southpaw reliever Aaron Ashby, who will open up the game in advance of right-hander Quinn Priester. Ashby worked 1.1 innings in Game 1 and retired all four batters that he faced with one strikeout. He worked 66.2 innings in 43 appearances this season, including one start, so he’s not a one-and-done opener, though we will see how long skipper Pat Murphy sticks with him.
The one-time super promising prospect has been derailed by injuries and shipped to the bullpen, but he was very effective with a 2.16 ERA, 3.09 xERA, and a 2.70 FIP during the regular season. He has an eight-game scoreless streak going after his relief effort in Game 1 and seven scoreless outings to finish up the regular season. Eight of his last nine appearances have been 1.1 innings or more, so we’ll see how Craig Counsell sets up his lineup and how far Ashby will be asked to go.
Priester was a revelation for the Brewers and a major reason why they were able to have such a good season. The Red Sox cast-off posted a 3.32 ERA with a 3.62 xERA and a 4.01 FIP over 157.1 innings for Milwaukee. Early-season injuries pushed the Brewers into the pitcher market and they were able to get Priester on April 7 for a couple of minor leaguers. This will be his first postseason appearance.
Priester had a 56.1% GB% during the regular season and Chicago’s higher power ceiling was the reason I liked the Cubs in this series. Matthew Boyd getting wrecked in Game 1 didn’t help and now the Cubs have to hope that Shota Imanaga, who has some extreme platoon splits, can keep them in the ballgame here when Priester is unlikely to allow many extra-base hits and also did a good job of minimizing hard contact.
Imanaga gave up two runs on three hits out of 17 batters faced when he entered in relief for Game 2 of the series against the Padres. Counsell had it set up well with opener Andrew Kittredge, though he gave up a run as well. Imanaga gave up a two-run Manny Machado homer and the Cubs only mustered one run.
The long ball has been a bugaboo for Imanaga this season in general, as he allowed 31 of them in 144.2 innings. Righties hit 27 of them off of him. He also pitched to a .486 SLG in the second half of the season over 76.2 innings with 20 homers allowed. He only allowed a .264 OBP, but the long ball was the biggest issue. Milwaukee can score runs in a lot more ways than that, but it sure helps in the playoff run environment to have that option. It is worth noting that 25 of the 31 homers Imanaga allowed were solo shots.
I was really surprised to see Milwaukee jump out so early with six in the first and three in the second after not having played for almost a week. And they really didn’t have to play any high-pressure games late in the season to maintain their grasp on the NL Central or the No. 1 seed. But, they were ready to go.
I like them here today, as I’m assuming my Cubs series price ticket is in deep trouble. However, I am waiting to lock anything in. Jackson Chourio is Milwaukee’s best hitter against LHP and he left the last game with a nagging hamstring. If he doesn’t play, I’ll get a better price on Milwaukee, who can still have righties William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, and maybe we even see Joey Ortiz moved up the order to put some more pressure on Imanaga by exploiting the platoon split.
If Chourio is confirmed in the lineup, this line probably goes up a little, but not a ton. So I’ll wait that out and see what happens.
Pick: Brewers – waiting until Jackson Chourio status announced
