MLB Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Friday, August 25th

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MLB schedule today has 15 games

There are only three interleague games this weekend, as we’ll have six games in the NL and six games in the AL. Division action is limited, though, as there is only one division rivalry in the AL and two in the NL. The new schedule format has been fun to see some different teams face off against each other, but it is also a bummer not to see as many important games within the division late in the year. Some teams are already done with certain division opponents for the season.

 

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Every game is a night game tonight and there are a few games threatened by rain, but not as many as we’ve seen the last couple of days, so hopefully it will be all systems go for Friday.

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Here are some thoughts on the August 25 card (odds from DraftKings):

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (-225, 8.5)

Here’s one of the aforementioned division games. The Marlins are back at home following their West Coast swing and host the Nationals with a battle between Joan Adon and Braxton Garrett. The Fish are big favorites here, but Washington comes in having won seven of 10. Just as we all expected, the Nationals and Mets have identical records on August 25 at 59-69.

Adon has a 7.00 ERA with a 5.09 xERA and a 5.27 FIP in his 18 innings at the MLB level this season. He had a 7.10 ERA with a 6.01 xERA and a 5.11 FIP last season in 64.2 innings, so I’m sensing a pattern here. The pattern is that he’s not very good. He also has a 4.50 ERA in 28 starts at the Triple-A level and allowed 10 runs on 15 hits in 14 innings at Double-A.

Garrett is left-handed, which gives the Nationals offense a better chance today. He’s got a 3.94 ERA with a 4.66 xERA and a 3.61 FIP, as his K/BB ratio is doing a lot of heavy lifting with his overall numbers. He’s got a 17% HR/FB% as a 49.5% GB% guy, but he has allowed a 47.4% Hard Hit% on the season. He is actually pretty fortunate to have an ERA under 4 in some respects, but he also has a 24.9% K% with a 4% BB%, so those two metrics have really helped.

Garrett has allowed eight total earned runs in his last five starts after having a run with 16 runs allowed over four starts. Now that he’s stabilized, I don’t have the desire to bet against him with an Over here, but I’d be surprised if Adon performs well.

Chicago Cubs (-120, 9) at Pittsburgh Pirates

Kyle Hendricks and Mitch Keller are the listed starters in this one, as we’ll see Chicago and Pittsburgh back at it after a 5-4 extra-inning game last night. The Cubs prevailed and hold a one-game lead over the Giants and Reds in the NL Wild Card chase. 

Hendricks has a 3.83 ERA with a 4.21 xERA and a 4.03 FIP in his 98.2 innings of work. He has only struck out 15.7% of opposing batters, so there have been a lot of balls in play against him. He’s done well to this point with a .268 BABIP against, but his 66.3% LOB% is a byproduct of how hard it is to strand runners without swing and miss in the profile.

He has a 4.20 ERA and a 3.49 FIP over his last seven starts, as he allowed seven runs to the Braves on August 4, but has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of the other six starts.

Keller checks in with a 4.22 ERA, 3.95 xERA, and a 3.71 FIP in 155.2 innings of work. The right-hander is having a career year, but it hasn’t really gone as he had hoped. Keller was awesome early in the season and then it abruptly turned. Since May 26, Keller has a 5.42 ERA and a 4.42 FIP over his last 16 starts. However, he seems to have found it again, at least momentarily, with six earned runs allowed on 21 hits in his last 17 innings, including 23 strikeouts against four walks.

We’ll see which version of Keller we get here, but with the batted ball dependency of Hendricks and a lot of up-and-down efforts from Keller, I don’t have a confident stance in this one.

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (-142, 9.5)

Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals take on Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies to kick off this weekend set in Philly. Mikolas is up to a 4.55 ERA with a 4.99 xERA and a 3.99 FIP as he has never really gotten on track after pitching in the WBC to start the year. He’s had flashes and moments, but he’s also been ejected and suspended recently and also shown a lot of frustration throughout the year.

He’s probably frustrated right now, as he’s allowed 11 runs on 12 hits in his last 11 innings of work. He has a 5.45 ERA with a 4.45 FIP in the second half over eight starts, which includes a suspended start where he was rolling after three innings and an appearance that lasted about 10 minutes when he was ejected for throwing at a Cubs player. Mikolas has allowed 19 hard-hit balls over his last two starts and a 45.5% Hard Hit% over his last four starts.

The southpaw Sanchez has a 3.36 ERA with a 3.79 xERA and a 4.38 FIP over his 64.1 innings this season. He allowed six runs three starts ago against the Royals and that is the only one of his 12 starts with more than three runs allowed this season. He’s allowed a 38.8% Hard Hit% and an 8.7% Barrel%, so he has been quite effective for the Phillies.

We may have reached the point where the Cardinals offense keeps trying to drive the team towards respectability. This has been a top-10 offense against lefties and righties most of the season, but not lately, as the Redbirds have a .312 wOBA and a 98 wRC+ against lefties in August. They are running a low .268 BABIP in that split with an 11.2% BB%, so there are some positive regression signs, but this team is just playing out the string of the season and that is rare territory for this organization.

Nothing from me here, as the Phillies seem to be lined pretty fairly, but it will be interesting to see how engaged St. Louis is over the next six weeks with what I assume is a lame-duck manager in Oliver Marmol.

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 8)

It is August 25 and the Padres have only won consecutive games twice this month. That is not what you want to see from a team that is supposed to be fighting for its playoff life. Despite immense talent, this team just isn’t very good and heads into this series against Milwaukee trailing by six games in the NL Wild Card race.

Yu Darvish will try to set the tone for this two-city trip to Milwaukee and St. Louis. He comes in with a 4.35 ERA, 3.68 xERA, and a 3.96 FIP in 132.1 innings of work. He’s allowed four runs in back-to-back starts on 17 hits with 13 strikeouts against two walks. It’s been a weird run for Darvish, who has a 4.83 ERA dating back to May 28. He’s mixed in some good starts, but he’s also allowed seven runs twice, missed a couple weeks with an illness, and just hasn’t been as sharp as we’ve seen him in the past.

The Brewers will counter with Brandon Woodruff, who has a 2.89 ERA and a 2.77 xERA, but also a 4.66 FIP. He missed about three months, so all that matters is what he has done in August and he has allowed eight runs on 11 hits in 16.2 innings with an 18/3 K/BB ratio. He’s allowed five homers in three starts, with solid efforts against the Pirates and White Sox and then a subpar outing against the Rangers in his last start.

Woodruff has allowed a 47.6% Hard Hit%, so he hasn’t been terribly sharp in his return, but he has pitched well against the two lesser offenses that he has faced. The Padres are 20th in wOBA and have a 94 wRC+ against righties in the month of August. They continue to do well with drawing walks, but Woodruff is typically stingy with those.

Both teams had Thursday off, so the bullpens are in tip-top shape, at least relative to this late in the season. One advantage that Milwaukee has over most opponents is being the better defensive team, but that is not the case here. I don’t have a play in this one. I’m still unsure how Milwaukee is as good as they are and Darvish has the kind of ceiling to make this a tough bet.

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks (-148, 9)

Hunter Greene’s first start back off of the IL was something of a disaster, but he’ll be on the hill against Brandon Pfaadt in this one. Greene was originally slated to go on Saturday and get an extra day, but the Reds opted to push him into Friday night’s start.

His first MLB start since June 17 was not a good one, as he allowed nine runs on 10 hits, including five home runs, to the Blue Jays over three innings of work. The velocity looked fine and he had a 15.6% SwStr%, but he just didn’t locate well in his first start back. He allowed four barrels and 11 hard-hit balls. In four rehab starts, Greene allowed five runs on seven hits over 14 innings with a 15/7 K/BB ratio.

I’m thinking Greene was maybe just a little too amped up for his return, especially because the Reds opted not to get any starting pitching help at the Deadline and that made his return even more pressure-packed. He has a 4.72 ERA for the season with a 4.01 xERA and a 4.42 FIP in 76.1 innings of work.

Yesterday was a pretty heartbreaking loss for the Reds, but they got a good start from Brandon Williamson and were able to avoid complete bullpen disaster. Alexis Diaz had thrown 38 pitches over the previous two days and Lucas Sims threw 31 pitches on Wednesday. The doubleheader on Wednesday definitely had an impact on how David Bell managed the game. He had to use eight relievers on Wednesday. Yesterday, he used two guys down the depth chart in Alex Young and Buck Farmer.

The Diamondbacks pen is up against it a little more. Paul Sewald has thrown four of the last six days and has thrown 28 pitches in each of his last two outings. Kevin Ginkel was not used yesterday, but he has been used a lot lately. Miguel Castro has worked three of the last four and Kyle Nelson has thrown 32 pitches over the last three days.

So, that puts some pressure on Pfaadt, who has a 6.13 ERA with a 5.12 xERA and a 5.45 FIP in his 61.2 innings of work. Pfaadt is coming off of his best start of the season with seven shutout, one-hit innings against the Padres. Ever since he was recalled full-time on July 22, he has a 3.50 ERA with a 4.02 FIP, so pitching coach Brent Strom has definitely worked his magic. Pfaadt allowed five homers in his first three starts, but hasn’t allowed one in his last three, and has only issued nine walks in 36 innings.

Cincinnati’s youth is showing this month, as the Reds have struck out over 30% of the time against right-handed pitching. I really wanted to take the Reds in the dog role here, but Pfaadt’s adjustments have definitely worked and I’m not sure if Greene was just a little too jacked up or if it was something more against Toronto. Ultimately, I’m going to stay away, but the Reds could be an interesting live bet given the bullpen situations.

Atlanta Braves (-148, 7) at San Francisco Giants

The Braves have escaped the extreme heat of Atlanta and are out in the Bay Area to take on the Giants. It will be Spencer Strider and Logan Webb to get this series underway and Webb is getting a lot of respect in this one.

Webb comes in with a 3.36 ERA, 3.65 xERA, and a 3.27 FIP in 169 innings of work this season. He actually has a 2.11 ERA at home in 85.1 innings over 326 batters faced with a .223/.256/.332 slash and a .257 wOBA against. All of his home numbers are decidedly better than his road numbers and that’s part of the reason why Strider and the Braves are such a short favorite here.

Webb did allow four runs on nine hits to Atlanta six days ago, including a 47.6% Hard Hit% in 21 batted ball events. Strider was much more effective against the Giants, as he allowed one hit over seven masterful innings with 10 strikeouts. Strider has not allowed a run in his last 14 innings after having an unexpected dud against the Pirates back on August 7.

The Giants offense has been in the commode this month, as they rank 29th in wOBA against righties at .273 with a 70 wRC+. The Braves are tied for the league lead in wOBA against RHP. Overall in the second half, the Giants own a .281 wOBA and a 76 wRC+, both of which are the worst marks in the league. They’re only batting .218 as a team with a .295 OBP and a league-low .343 SLG.

As great as Webb is, I’m not sure he gets a lot of margin for error from the Giants offense in this one. The two bullpens are in different spots as well. Camilo Doval has blown his last three save chances. The primary relievers all worked back-to-back days on Tuesday and Wednesday prior to the off day. Doval, Taylor Rogers, and Luke Jackson have all worked three of the last four days. 

The only Braves reliever to work twice since Sunday is Kirby Yates, so that unit is extremely well-rested. I love Logan Webb and respect what he’s done, but I don’t think he gets much run support and his bullpen is not performing at a high level.

Pick: Braves -148

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-135, 7)

Gerrit Cole and Zach Eflin meet in a top-tier pitching matchup down at the Trop in this one. We’ve got a total down to 7, though there is over juice across the market. The Yankees snapped their extended losing streak with a 9-1 win on Wednesday, but did their best to start another one with a 6-5 loss yesterday to the Nationals. 

So, it will be up to Cole to be the stopper for this team, as he comes off of a bad start of his own. He allowed six runs on seven hits over just four innings to the Red Sox last time out. Cole has a 3.03 ERA with a 3.46 FIP on the season and had only allowed more than three runs in one other start since the beginning of June, but he picked a bad time to have a bad one. We’ll see if he can bounce back against a Rays bunch that leads the league in offense against righties this month.

Eflin has a 3.58 ERA with a 2.99 xERA and a 3.16 FIP. He is extremely difficult to score against because he has a strong K/BB ratio with a 51.6% GB%. He’s also only allowed 15 homers in 138.1 innings of work this season, though he has allowed four over his last three starts. He’s allowed eight runs on 18 hits in those 16 innings, but six of the runs came in one start against Cleveland.

He’s had various ailments, including some knee discomfort, and every other start lately has been rough. By runs allowed, he’s gone 1, 6, 1, 0, 5, 0, 5 in his last seven starts, so he’s had problems stringing together really good outings.

Nevertheless, I have zero interest in any kind of bet in this game, where Cole always has the ability to be dominant, but his teammates may not help all that much.

Houston Astros (-180, 9) at Detroit Tigers

Struggling southpaw Framber Valdez will head to the hill against the Tigers as the Astros hit the road for just the second time since August 10. They played Miami on the road from August 14-16, but 10 of their last 13 games have been at Minute Maid Park. 

Detroit hasn’t gotten much pitching this month, but the bats have been pretty impressive, especially against righties, where the Tigers are a top-10 offense. It is a different story against lefties in August, as Detroit ranks 26th in wOBA at .275 and has an 85 wRC+. A 27.7% K% is the root cause of the problem, but a .198 BA and a .224 BABIP don’t really help either. That makes this game against the left-handed Valdez super interesting.

Valdez threw a no-hitter on August 1 against Cleveland, yet he has a 6.18 ERA with a 5.28 FIP in 43.2 innings in the second half. He’s allowed at least four runs in each of his other six starts and has allowed 16 runs over his last three starts, including five home runs allowed. I have no idea what’s wrong with him, aside from bad command. The velocity largely looks fine, but he’s allowed a 49.6% Hard Hit% in the second half. 

Valdez also isn’t inducing ground balls at the same rate and he’s paying the price for it. He’s got a 49.6% GB% in the second half, which is still great for most guys, but not for him, as he’s typically north of 55 or 60%. 

Which version of Matt Manning do we get in this one? Manning has allowed one earned run (three total) over his last 11.1 innings in road starts against Cleveland and Boston. He only has three strikeouts out of 45 batters faced, so I’m not really buying the sustainability, but he had allowed 19 runs over his previous three starts. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy dependent on the defense and that doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence against Houston.

He is moderately better against righties this season with a .295 wOBA against compared to a .313 wOBA against, but lefties have hit seven of the 11 homers he has allowed. Last season, Manning held righties to a .258 wOBA, so I guess we’ll see what he does here. I don’t have anything in this one, even though I think people will look at Detroit’s recent offensive surge and Valdez’s struggles and give the dog a shot.

Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays (-155, 8.5)

Tanner Bibee and Chris Bassitt are the listed hurlers here as Cleveland goes north of the border to take on Toronto. It’s a bummer that Canadian-born Josh Naylor isn’t ready to go, but this will be brother Bo Naylor’s first series in Toronto as a Major Leaguer, so that is a fun footnote here. Mississauga is close to Toronto, so the Naylors will have plenty of friends and family in attendance for this series.

Bibee fired six shutout innings against the Blue Jays back on August 8 in a four-game series that saw 13 total runs scored between the two teams. Cleveland’s right-handed starters mowed through the Blue Jays lineup and Cleveland’s usually-inept offense was unable to muster much against the Toronto starters.

Bibee has not allowed more than three runs in a start since he gave up six in a homecoming of his own against the Padres back on June 13. He’s made 11 starts since then and has a 2.34 ERA with a 3.51 FIP in 65.1 innings of work with 67 strikeouts against 22 walks. He’s only allowed six homers in that span and a 34.8% Hard Hit% with a 3.9% Barrel%. 

The only concern I have is that Bibee’s road splits are not great compared to his home splits. His slash line goes up by 82/66/196 points and his wOBA against is 137 points higher on the road. Rogers Centre has really suppressed offense this season, but Bibee has been uncomfortable on the road for some reason. He’s allowed nine of his 11 homers there and his BABIP is 73 points higher.

It is odd that Bibee has allowed a .320 wOBA to righties and a .253 wOBA to lefties as well, as he’s allowed nine of 11 HR to right-handed batters. That should help the Blue Jays, but it didn’t in Cleveland and they haven’t hit many worthwhile righties in the second half.

Bassitt comes in with a 3.92 ERA, 4.39 xERA, and a 4.54 FIP in a Jekyll-and-Hyde kind of season. He has seven starts of at least six shutout innings, but also has allowed five or more runs five times and four runs four times. It’s been an all-or-nothing type of season for him. He’s got a 3.21 ERA with a 3.86 FIP since the All-Star Break, as he’s allowed four runs twice in seven starts, but also two or fewer runs in five of the starts.

Bassitt, like Bibee, has very much enjoyed home cooking. He’s held the opposition to a .180/.266/.271 slash at home with a .245 wOBA compared to a .284/.340/.536 slash and a .370 wOBA on the road. He has a 2.83 ERA with a 3.36 FIP in 76.1 innings at home and a 5.02 ERA with a 5.69 FIP in 75.1 innings on the road. Bassitt has allowed 18 of his 23 home runs on the road. Games at Rogers Centre have averaged fewer than eight runs per game (7.96).

Both bullpens are in pretty decent shape here. I guess there’s a chance that Bibee gets rocked, but Cleveland has a pretty low offensive ceiling to begin with and Bassitt’s home numbers are quite strong. Bibee also has allowed a total of 12 runs in six road starts since that blow-up in San Diego and he’s faced the Rays, Astros, White Sox, Rangers, Cubs, and Diamondbacks (back in June) in that span, so some decent offenses.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-122)

Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox (-192, 9)

This is a big, large, uncomfortable price on Chicago, as the White Sox send Dylan Cease to the mound against Zach Neal and the A’s. Cease has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.15 xERA and a 3.77 FIP in his 138 innings this season. It has been a throwaway year for most of the White Sox and a lot of changes are coming with the recent firings of Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn, plus I’d imagine that Pedro Grifol’s job will be evaluated since new regimes typically like to handpick a manager.

Cease has had a weird year, as his ERA is well above his other run estimators, but it’s hard to see why. He’s only allowed 14 homers and has 163 strikeouts in 138 innings. The 10.3% BB% hasn’t helped and he has a .326 BABIP against with a 42% Hard Hit%. Cease has only allowed a 6.6% Barrel%, but hasn’t gotten much help from his defense.

Recently, Cease was awful at Coors Field, but that’ll happen, especially with limited exposure to pitching at elevation. He was good in the two starts before that with a couple runs on six hits in 12.2 innings to the Brewers and Yankees, but he also allowed seven runs to the Rangers on August 2.

But, market confidence is deservedly low on Neal, who has allowed 11 runs on 19 hits in 12 innings. He just allowed five runs on seven hits in a bulk appearance last time out against the Orioles. He’s listed as the starter here, but Sean Newcomb was also recently called up from Triple-A Las Vegas with a 3.16 ERA and a 4.31 FIP in 31.1 innings of work. This looks like some kind of MacGyvered piggyback/tandem situation. I’ll pass on the game simply because of that, but seeing the White Sox as such a big favorite is pretty jarring.

Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins (-118, 8.5)

It wasn’t pretty and we got the worst of Pablo Lopez, but the Rangers had another bullpen melt and lost their seventh game in a row last night. I’ll put the cart in front of the horse here and let you know that I’ll be running it back on Minnesota tonight.

Dane Dunning has been a regression candidate in my eyes virtually all season. He has a 3.19 ERA with a 4.36 xERA and a 4.06 FIP. Recently, he found a little bit more strikeout upside with 11 against the White Sox and 12 against the Giants, but I think that was a flash in the pan more than anything else. Even with those two big strikeout games, Dunning has a 4.64 FIP in seven second-half starts. He’s got a 3.98 ERA thanks to an 82.9% LOB%. He’s allowed a 40.5% Hard Hit% and an 8.6% Barrel% with a lot of ground balls, but I really do think he’s a sell guy long-term.

Hopefully Sonny Gray fares better than Lopez did. He has this season overall, posting a 3.15 ERA with a 3.73 xERA and a 2.78 FIP in 143 innings of work. Gray has only allowed five homers on the season with 147 strikeouts in his 143 innings. He’s only allowed 123 hits and has been good against both lefties and righties, holding lefties to a .291 wOBA and righties to a .258 mark. He’s allowed a .256 wOBA in the second half in 43.1 innings over 175 batters faced.

The Twins were able to get the win yesterday without using Jhoan Duran, so he’s available tonight and the bullpen is in pretty good shape because Josh Winder did yeoman’s work over his 46 pitches and three scoreless innings.

The Twins and Rangers have identical numbers against righties this month with a .330 wOBA and a 111 wRC+, but I much prefer Gray to Dunning and Minnesota has done their damage with a higher K%, something I don’t think Dunning can really exploit.

Pick: Twins -118

Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (-180, 8)

Brady Singer and Bryce Miller are the listed starters here as the Royals visit the Mariners. This series kicks off a big homestand for the M’s, who took three of four from KC on the road early last week and won eight of 10 on the trip. They play Kansas City and Oakland here and anything less than 4-2 would be a massive disappointment.

Miller comes in with a 3.78 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 3.88 FIP in his 97.2 innings of work. The right-hander has allowed a 42.8% Hard Hit% and a 10.8% Barrel%, hence the spike in xERA, but he’s been mostly able to work around it. However, he has a 46.6% Hard Hit% and a 12.9% Barrel% in the second half, so those are two really concerning numbers. He has a 3.49 ERA with a 4.56 FIP in 38.2 innings in that stretch, so regression is very much lurking, especially with just two strikeouts in each of his last two starts.

Singer had been throwing the ball pretty well, but had a setback last time out against the Cubs. He’s got a 5.04 ERA with a 4.79 xERA and a 4.05 FIP in a season that has been a real struggle for him, but he had allowed nine earned runs over his previous five starts before giving up six runs in just 3.2 innings on August 19. Only four of the runs were earned, but he gave up two homers and never really settled in.

If I had some more faith in Singer or the Royals, I think Miller is a fade guy. I guess the Over 8 could be in play here, given that Singer has allowed a ton of hard contact of his own with a 49% Hard Hit% on the year, but it is T-Mobile Park and I’m always wary of playing overs in that venue.

Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles (-218, 9)

Kyle Freeland and Cole Irvin meet in the only game with two left-handed starters today. In fact, these guys make up 40% of the left-handed starters on the card. The O’s are a huge favorite against the Rockies here, even though Irvin has a 4.66 ERA with a 6.03 xERA and a 4.25 FIP in 58 innings of work on the season.

Freeland has an ERA north of 5 and a 5.40 xERA with a 5.18 FIP in his 129 innings pitched. He has allowed at least least four runs in every start since coming off of the IL on July 28 and has a 6.23 ERA with a 5.19 FIP. Freeland has a 50.5% Hard Hit% in that span with an 11.6% Barrel%.

No matter how lackluster Irvin’s profile is, Freeland is not good overall and especially not good right now.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 10.5) at Boston Red Sox

This game is loaded with storylines. Mookie Betts makes his return to Fenway Park and that is the biggest one, but we also have the rebirth of Lance Lynn in Dodger Blue and a Red Sox team that doesn’t have a ton of margin for error in terms of making the postseason. 

Lynn has been magnificent since leaving the White Sox and joining the Dodgers. He has allowed four earned runs on 17 hits over 25 innings with 25 strikeouts and five walks. He has allowed a 40% Hard Hit% and six barrels, but three of the barrels came in his first start and now the Dodgers have had more time to work their magic. This is a tricky one, though, as he heads to Fenway Park to face the best offense he’s seen as a Dodger, as he’s faced the A’s, Padres, Rockies, and Brewers to this point.

The Sox will counter with Kutter Crawford, who I low-key like, but I’m not sure I like him against the Dodgers. He’s got a 3.66 ERA with a 3.55 xERA and a 4.24 FIP in 96 innings of work. Crawford has a 2.86 ERA with a 4.36 FIP in 34.2 innings in the second half, as he’s walked 11 and allowed five home runs, but has also struck out 36 and allowed just a 30.7% Hard Hit%.

I think a lot of people will be all over the Dodgers today with Lynn’s performance and Mookie’s return to Fenway. I don’t think it’s as cut and dry as that would suggest, though, so this is not a game I’m invested in.

Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets (-166, 8)

The Mets are heavy favorites with Kodai Senga on the mound here against Undecided, as the Angels have not named a starter for this one. My guess is that Griffin Canning gets the nod here since Tyler Anderson was needed in relief on Wednesday. Canning threw 52 pitches last Saturday and I think he’ll be the guy to start. The Angels could also opt to use Jaime Barria.

It has been said that Shohei Ohtani will still DH for the rest of the season, but the team did lose Mike Trout back to the IL as well, as his wrist and hand did not respond all that well to hamate bone surgery. Ohtani being in the lineup is huge for the Angels, but it has to be a very somber mood around the clubhouse these days, especially as Ohtani plays out the string before hitting free agency.

Canning has a 4.61 ERA with a 4.06 xERA and a 4.63 FIP in 91.2 innings this season. Barria, who threw 53 pitches on Saturday, has a 5.32 ERA with a 5.02 xERA and a 5.43 FIP in his 71 innings of work.

Sen