MLB Best Bets Today July 25

We have a 4-4-7 format this weekend, with four games in each of the traditional leagues and seven interleague games. Of the more traditional matchups, only three are division rivalries and all of them are in the AL. We saw the starts of Athletics/Astros and Mariners/Angels yesterday, but we’ll get Guardians/Royals underway tonight, weather permitting.

It is very, very hot in the Midwest and on the East Coast, so rain chances are just sort of hanging for most of those games. Something to keep in mind as you look at pitcher props and things of that sort.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 25:

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees (-158, 10)

7:05 p.m. ET

East Coast bragging rights in the tri-state area are up for grabs this weekend between the Phillies and Yankees. Taijuan Walker gets the call for the Phillies and Will Warren will go for the Yankees. Philly is now in second place in the NL East and New York has been in second place in the AL East for a little while now. So, this is a pretty big series for both teams.

Walker has a 3.75 ERA with a 3.90 xERA and a 4.57 FIP in his 62.1 innings of work across 10 starts and 11 relief appearances. The veteran right-hander has a 19.4% K% and a 9.2% BB% so the heightened FIP makes sense in that regard. He’s also had some home run issues, but he’s also allowed just a 6.2% Barrel%, so I think he’s gotten really unlucky in that department.

Walker’s actually limited lefties to a .347 SLG this season in 138 PA, so I think that could be a silver lining going into this start, where we’ll get four or so innings max from him. That means it’ll be an “all hands on deck” type of thing and that’s fine with a Phillies bullpen that ranks seventh in ERA and ninth in FIP over the last 30 days.

There are positive regression signs in the profile for Warren, who has a 4.91 ERA with a 4.06 xERA and a 3.66 FIP. His high K% is a big reason why his xERA and FIP are where they are. His 4.91 ERA is a nod to his 45.6% Hard Hit% and 9.2% Barrel%. He allowed five runs over 3.2 innings to the A’s in his first start after the All-Star Break.

The Yankees bullpen is 29th in reliever ERA and FIP over the last 30 days. In a game where the starters may very well cancel out, I’ll take my chances on the Phillies and their bullpen. Also, the Phillies are 10th in wOBA since baseball returned last Friday and the Yankees are 23rd. Between the bad defense and the inconsistent offense, the Yankees have some issues.

Pick: Phillies +129

Los Angeles Dodgers (-120, 9.5) at Boston Red Sox

7:10 p.m. ET

The Dodgers and Red Sox meet in what will be a big-time battle in Beantown this weekend. It starts with Emmet Sheehan and Brayan Bello, as the Dodgers continue to put together a patchwork rotation. They’re also dealing with some bullpen issues, as Ben Casparius is hurt and Tanner Scott is down with a bum elbow. Michael Kopech also tore his meniscus earlier this month. So, there’s a lot going on for the Dodgers to say the least.

Sheehan gave up five runs on seven hits over three innings in his first start of the second half. He was pretty good in two starts and a relief effort for the big-league club prior to the Break, but this is a very difficult assignment at Fenway Park. Sheehan only has a 27.1% GB% and fly balls are particularly penal with the ballpark dimensions here. He’s only allowed a 41.7% Hard Hit%, but has allowed 14 hard-hit balls out of 25 batted ball events in his last two starts and yielded a 54.5% HH% against the Brewers in that July 19 start.

Boston’s bats are off to a slow start after the Break, but now they’re back at home where they’ve slashed .267/.341/.457 with a .345 wOBA. Even with the park adjusted on a heavy curve as the East Coast Coors Field, they’re still 10th in wRC+.

Bello has been solid this season with a 3.23 ERA, though his 4.32 xERA and 4.36 FIP are suggestive of some regression. That said, a lot of that has to do with his low K% and elevated BB%. He’s a 51.4% GB% guy who has a 36.8% Hard Hit% against and just a 6.8% Barrel% against. The HH% is a career-best and the Barrel% is under 7% for the first time since his rookie year.

Bello has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 18. Also, despite the tough pitching conditions at home, Bello has allowed just a .295 wOBA and has a 3.20 ERA with a 3.75 FIP. His full-season numbers are even more impressive because he’s pitched 70.1 innings at home and just 27.1 on the road.

As great as the Dodgers are, they are just 25-22 on the road this season and have also not played very well over the last few weeks. I’ll take my chances with the home dog here.

Pick: Red Sox -102

Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins (-171, 8.5)

8:10 p.m. ET

MacKenzie Gore is looking for a bounce back start and so is Zebby Matthews as the Nationals and Twins fire up a weekend set at Target Field. Gore gave up eight runs on eight hits in just 2.1 innings in his last outing against the Padres. It was his first start since July 9, so he went 11 days between starts and I’m not entirely surprised that he struggled in light of that. Athletes are creatures of habit.

The Twins are a below average offense against lefties with a .237/.313/.392 slash, a .310 wOBA, and a 97 wRC+. They also have a 24.2% K% in that split, so this should be an opportunity for Gore to get back to work in the swing-and-miss department. The Padres only have a 19.6% K% against lefties and they were able to take advantage of their balls in play. Gore only allowed a 30.8% Hard Hit% and two Barrels, but the two Barrels were particularly hurtful, especially the first inning grand slam.

Matthews is making his first home start since May 24, as he was with the big-league club until June 4 before hitting the IL for a bit. The Twins did not set him up for success last time out, as he returned to the Majors for a start in Coors Field against the Rockies. He had worked four scoreless innings in the minors prior to that start.

I think Matthews has a ton of upside with 31 K in his 23 innings of work. His 6.26 ERA comes with a 3.27 FIP in his five MLB starts. The Twins should give him a lot of runway in the second half and this is a good matchup against a Nationals bunch off to a slow .244/.310/.394 start to the second half.

But, I want no part of either bullpen. This is a 1st 5 Under play, even with a little juice.

Pick: Nationals/Twins 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-125)