MLB Best Bets Today June 21
Fourteen games are on the MLB card for Friday, as the Giants and Cardinals take a day off after yesterday’s emotional game at Rickwood Field. The two will resume their series at Busch Stadium on Saturday, but we’ll have an imbalanced schedule today with four games in the NL, five in the AL, and five interleague matchups.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 21:
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 9)
7:10 p.m. ET
Yariel Rodriguez and Carlos Carrasco are the scheduled starters for this one. It could be a bit of an emotional day for Carrasco, whose spot in the rotation is in real danger. Xzavion Curry was pulled after two innings last night at Columbus and no injury has been reported as of this morning. Gavin Williams is also making his fifth rehab start at Double-A Akron. The longtime Indian has not been effective and his time in the rotation is likely coming to an end.
Players are pretty perceptive and I think they’ll rally around Cookie the best that they can, but the stuff quality just isn’t there anymore. Carrasco has a 5.80 ERA with a 4.96 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP in his 59 innings of work. He’s honestly fortunate to even be around that, given a .309 BABIP and a 65.1% LOB%.
The Blue Jays have been swinging it a bit better lately with a .316 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days, which ranks 12th. They put a ton of balls in play against RHP and Carrasco isn’t much of a strikeout guy at this stage, which is a bad combo with temps in the 80s and a lot of humidity at Progressive Field.
Carrasco just allowed five runs on six hits over five innings to Toronto and has allowed at least five runs in four of his last seven starts, with an IL stint mixed in there as well.
Rodriguez was just recalled from the minors and gets the nod for the Jays here. In four MLB appearances back in April, he posted a 4.11 ERA with a 4.51 FIP. He struck out 16 over 15.1 innings, but also walked eight and allowed a good bit of hard contact. He was throwing the ball very well in the minors, but the Guardians rank second in wOBA against righties over the last 30 days at .352 and, as I mentioned, it’s going to be very warm again in Cleveland.
I think we get some early runs in this game and the weather conditions and the way Progressive Field has played this season are key factors.
Pick: Blue Jays/Guardians 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-125)
Boston Red Sox (-118, 9) at Cincinnati Reds
7:10 p.m. ET
Fans will be seeing red tonight in Cincy with a battle between the Red Sox and the Reds. This interleague matchup features Kutter Crawford for Boston and Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati, as two of the better teams this month are squaring off. Boston is tied for fourth in wins this month with 11 and the Reds are tied for eighth with 10.
But, the Red Sox are a team playing up to more of its potential than the Reds in my opinion. When I noticed last week that Boston graded better in the alternate standings metrics than the actual standings, they were a team firmly on my radar and remain that way.
Crawford has had a little bit of a rough go of it lately, as he’s got a 4.92 ERA over his last nine starts and a 6.35 ERA over his last five starts, but he’s faced the Brewers, Orioles, Braves, Phillies, and Yankees, with four of those starts at Fenway Park. I’m not saying Great American Ball Park is a picnic by any means, but Fenway is a tough venue in a lot of ways.
Crawford actually has a 3.77 xFIP in this five-start stretch, as he’s got a solid 31/8 K/BB ratio over 28.1 innings, but he’s had a ton of bad sequencing luck with a 43.7% LOB%. The quality of his stuff remains good with lots of swings and misses and in-zone whiffs, but he hasn’t been able to get out of jams and the fly balls haven’t had positive results. I think he’s a positive regression guy moving forward.
This is a tough spot for Abbott. The Red Sox are seventh with a .337 wOBA against lefties over the last 30 days and that’s with a 27.2% K% that ranks second to the Mariners. Given that they’ve effectively wasted over 27% of their plate appearances, the fact that they’ve had so much success when they have made contact is really impressive.
Abbott only has 60 strikeouts in 79 innings. He’s a major negative regression guy with a 3.42 ERA, 4.75 FIP, and a 4.74 xFIP. He allows a ton of contact. While he’s done an excellent job of limiting hard contact, we’re into the time of the year where his fly ball style could become problematic, especially at home. It’ll be in the 90s at game time with some excellent hitting conditions and I think the Red Sox and their recent splits match up well.
The thing is that the Red Sox are also fourth in wOBA against righties over the last 30 days. The Reds are 13th. So not only do the Sox have an advantage in the starting pitcher battle, but I also like their bullpen more given that the offense has hit well from both sides of late.
Pick: Red Sox -118
